As of 6:56 AM, the 300 allocated “spot in line” tickets were running out, but some were still available; people arriving for the ticket exchange were still receiving them. So, in retrospect, “camping out” was entirely unnecessary. But I say it was worth it, just for the experience. It was fun, and now I can say that I camped out for Notre Dame football tickets! Well, okay, I camped for a Notre Dame football ticket, for my brother-in-law. Details, details.

Anyway, here are some photos of the ticket exchange:

(For the uninitiated: the “ticket exchanges” allow students with ND football season tickets to exchange their ticket to a given home game for a general-admission ticket to said game that allows a non-student to sit in the student’s seat. Typically, a student who can’t attend a given game agrees to exchange his/her ticket and sell it to another student who needs an extra ticket for a friend or family member. However, only 300 tickets are exchanged per game, first-come-first-served on the Tuesday morning before the game — hence the time-urgency of getting in line early. Also, each student can exchange only two game tickets per season. And of course, under no circumstances can the exchanged tickets be sold above face value, though that doesn’t stop some students from trying, despite the harsh penalties that follow if you get caught.)

P.S. Speaking of tickets… a lot of people at the law school want extra tickets, but whoever put this sign up wins points for creativity and humor:

Heh.

I just got a National Weather Service bulletin on my phone saying there's a dense fog advisory for St. Joseph County. Gee, ya think? :) In other news, T. D. 6 still isn't Florence yet. And I'm still
waiting in line.

At the Joyce Center waiting in line (really more of a blob at this point) to exchange football tickets so Casey can come to the Penn State game. Lisa and I were the first people here, at around
1130pm. We are so cool. :)

This is becoming quite amusing and is almost as up and down as gas prices. I was in the middle of posting about the 11 PM advisory which stated TD#6 was again close to becoming a tropical storm, when the 5 AM advisory came out, which states “Tropical Depression remains large but unorganized”. It still has maximum winds of 35MPH and is moving WNW at 13MPH. According to the discussion, convection has increased but the overall organization of the system is still quite poor. If the wind shear that the depression is experiencing dies down over the next two days, as currently forecast, the depression should strengthen. However, the two big questions are 1-will this wind shear actually die down?, and 2- will the depression hang in there long enough to enjoy the lowered wind shear?

As of 5pm, T.D. 6 isn’t strengthening as expected — in fact, it may actually be weakening:

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. IN FACT… IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND HAS A SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE. . . . SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY… BUT THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS NOW. . . . SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH… ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS… AFTER WHICH MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN.

I’ve heard all this before, of course. I believe the storm’s name was… Ernesto. :) But really, the computer models weren’t wrong about Ernesto: the atmosphere was favorable for significant intensification. It’s just that the storm was over land when that happened!

Here’s an article with more details about Steve Irwin’s death, including the fact that it was caught on tape, and the video has been turned over to police. (Hat tip: Sergio.)

Bad news for anyone hoping to get tickets to Michigan State or some other road game: this morning’s Observer states, “Ticket lottery is open to Notre Dame undergraduates only.” D’oh!

You’ve seen the fake newspaper. Now watch the fake video. Warning: profanity!

Heh. (Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan.)

Tropical Depression Six is almost a tropical storm, according to the 11am discussion:

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING STORM STRENGTH. CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION…THOUGH THESE BANDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FAR FROM THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE DEPRESSION AT 0901 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE ARE PLENTY OF 25 TO 30 KT [30 to 35 mph] WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION… AND A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLY RAIN-INFLATED 35 KT [40 mph] VECTORS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH… QUIKSCAT IS NOT CLEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH AN INTENSITY AND WITH THE CONVECTION REMAINING A LITTLE THIN… THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT [35 mph].

Bryan Woods at The Storm Track is skeptical. But Dr. Jeff Masters agrees with the NHC’s analysis, and says proto-Florence will likely earn its name soon.

The long-term GFS loop shows Florence, by then a hurricane, recurving out to sea a few hundred miles east of New England, then walloping Newfoundland as (presumably) a transitioning or extratropical storm. Of course, it’s (I say again) way too early to take such track details seriously. [So why do you keep mentioning them? -ed. … I can’t help myself! Mr. Worf, fire up the hype machine!]

On a related note, Charles Fenwick looks at the climatology:

As you can see [from this map of August and September depressions and storms that passed within 100 nautical miles of T.D. 6’s 11pm position], it is difficult for storms that start as far north as 6 did to make it to the east coast; most go up the gap that opens when the Bermuda high is in an easterly position. There are, though, some notorious storms that have started to go up such a gap only to have the high strengthen or shift to the west, which forces the storm ashore, such as Gloria and the 1938 storm…with Diane perhaps being the most dramatic example of a high trapping a storm that would have been headed out to sea.

Last but not least, “SciGuy” Eric Berger notes that the computer models show another storm trailing behind Florence in a few days. Proto-Gordon?

Steve Irwin, better known as the Crocodile Hunter, has died according to Australian news. The cause of death was apparently a stab wound from a sting ray that pierced his chest.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Australia’s news.com.au has more details on Irwin’s death:

A doctor and witnesses have told of the desperate efforts to save Australian icon Steve Irwin after the Crocodile Hunter was struck in the chest by a stingray barb today.

Irwin, 44, died this morning after being fatally injured while filming a nature documentary off Queensland. …

Choking back tears, [Irwin’s manager John] Stainton said Irwin had gone “over the top of a stingray and a stingray’s barb went up and went into his chest and put a hole into his heartâ€?.

“He possibly died instantly when the barb hit him, and I don’t think that he … felt any pain.â€? …

Mr Stainton admitted he had always feared Irwin might meet his death while working with wildlife, but added that Irwin himself was never scared.

“We’ve been in some pretty close shaves. (But) nothing would ever scare Steve or would worry him. He didn’t have a fear of death at all.â€?

In an sad twist, it has been reported that his new documentary was aimed at demystifying the stingray. However Mr Stainton said Irwin was filming other footage for a program with [his eight-year-old daughter] Bindi at the time of the attack.

Read the whole thing, which also includes links to various other articles about the tragedy.

As I said in comments, I too often wondered, while watching Irwin’s antics on TV, if he would ultimately meet his demise at the hands of some dangerous animal. Alas, “nature’s wayâ€? finally caught up to the Croc Hunter. Rest in peace, mate.

P.S. Irwin’s Wikipedia entry has more:

On 4 September 2006, Irwin was fatally pierced in the chest into his heart by a stingray barb, while off the Great Barrier Reef in Queensland, Australia while filming a segment for his daughter Bindi Irwin’s (8 years old at the time) upcoming series. Irwin was in the area filming his own documentary, to be called Ocean’s Deadliest, but weather had stalled filming. Irwin decided to take the opportunity to film some shallow water shots for his daughter’s program. The BBC reported that this was only the second known fatality in Australian history from a stingray attack. The Sydney Morning Herald lists it as the third known death; the other two deaths being in 1938 and 1945.

Shortly after 11:00 a.m. local time (01:00 UTC), Irwin was filming in the Low Isles, Queensland near Port Douglas, north of Cairns, Queensland, Australia, where he was stung either through his heart or through the left side of his chest. After he was stung, his crew called for medical help and attempted to resuscitate him. The Queensland Rescue Helicopter responded, taking him to Cairns Base Hospital. However, Irwin was pronounced dead at noon. He was not killed by the sting itself but from a puncture to the heart in turn causing cardiac arrest.

To anyone with the stomach for it, I highly recommend the Discovery Channel’s documentary about the World Trade Center atrocity, Inside the Twin Towers. It will air on the West Coast in eight minutes (9pm PDT), and will re-air on both coasts at 1am local time, and again next Saturday night/Sunday morning at 9pm and 1am Eastern/Pacific. (Schedule here.)

It is a truly excellent show, eschewing melodrama and over-the-top emotional manipulation in favor of straightforwardly presenting an extremely compelling account of what happened on that terrible day, through the eyes of the people who experienced it firsthand. Re-enactments and archive footage are interspersed with dozens of interviews with survivors and victims’ family members, giving it a somewhat When the Levees Broke-esque feel at times. But it’s better, IMHO.

Of particular note, Inside the Twin Towers spectacularly avoids the pitfall that Mickey Kaus feared Oliver Stone’s movie World Trade Center would fall into:

My main fear [was]…that he’d downplay and otherwise botch the heroic, moving, and patriotic stories of the civilian, unprofessional rescuers…while telling the more conventional tale of the two uniformed, professional cops.

I haven’t seen World Trade Center, so I don’t know whether Mickey’s fears were realized in that film, but I can tell you that Inside the Twin Towers does a phenomenal job of portraying the heroism of civilians and uniformed officers alike. And I’m talking about rescuers inside the towers themselves, not folks who came to help dig through the rubble after the fact. These are people who were themselves caught up in the calamity, yet had the fortitude and presence of mind to help others in need during their tragically short window of opportunity to escape.

You come away from Inside the Twin Towers, or I did anyway, feeling a surge of pride — in the American spirit, in the human condition, whatever — that so many people, from so many different walks of life, did so much to help each other survive the catastrophe. There is no need for the Discovery Channel to make the narrative explicit, and they don’t, but it’s there: we were struck by evil, and we responded with good. That’s a cliché, of course. But the way it’s portrayed in this documentary, it is truly moving, probably precisely because the director adopts a “show, don’t tell” approach to getting the point across.

At the same time, and perhaps even more remarkably and movingly, the movie doesn’t shy away from bluntly acknowledging that not every action of every person was heroic! Let’s face facts: many people in the towers that morning put their own self-interest first, and some were too scared to help themselves or anyone else. It is no article of shame to admit this, for it is simply an admission that the victims of 9/11 were human beings, not saints or supermen. It’s a distortion of reality to pretend otherwise, and I’m grateful to the Discovery Channel for providing an account of that morning’s atrocity which humanizes, rather than deifying, the victims and survivors. After all, the heroism of those who risked their lives is only notable because it was extraordinary; if it was ordinary, it woudn’t be heroic.

P.S. The title of this post, calling the Discovery Channel’s movie “another…masterpiece,” is a reference to this post about United 93, which is coming out on DVD on Tuesday, and which I also highly, highly recommend.

Tropical Depression #6 has formed, and is currently about 1500 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Its maximum winds are near 35 MPH, and it is moving near the northwest at 14 MPH. It currently has a minimum pressure of 1005 MB. You can see the latest advisory here. Also, Jeff Masters wrote a little about it earlier today when it was still just “Invest 90L”. He also mentions some other possible areas of development in the Atlantic.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Dr. Masters says: “The GFS predicts the storm will become a powerful hurricane that will recurve a few hundred miles off the U.S. East Coast without hitting land.” Brian Neudorff links to a model map. Hey, wait a minute… this is the same storm I blogged about last Monday, when it was just a twinkle in the computer models’ eyes! (See also here.) The models invented a nonexistent storm out of thin air, and — voila! — here it is! :) But the models’ long-term forecast track for what we can now confidently call “proto-Florence” has become more favorable to the East Coast, with a more safely out-to-sea recurvature expected. It’s way, way, way too early to be confident of ANY forecast track, of course, let alone a 10-day computer-model prediction. But I just think it’s cool — cool enough to break moratorium :) — that the purely hypothetical storm which the computer models predicted last week has now actually popped into existence.

Those of you who saw Syriana may appreciate my brother’s proposal for a potential sequel.

Having decided that two weeks into the semester is far too early to be way behind in your reading :), I’m declaring a blog moratorium for myself for at least the next 24 hours (excepting, as usual, major breaking news, extremely brief quote-of-the-day type posts, etc.). Guestbloggers, you have the floor.

Elaborating on a theme that I mentioned in a previous post, there is some further rumbling about Hillary passing on 2008 and making a bid for Senate minority (or majority?) leader instead:

Friends of Hillary Clinton have been whispering the unthinkable. Despite her status as the runaway frontrunner for the 2008 Democratic nomination for president, some of her closest advisers say she might opt out of the White House race and seek to lead her party in the Senate. …

“I would not be surprised if she were to decide that the best contribution she can make to her country is to forget about being president and become a consensus-maker in the Senate,â€? said a leading Democratic party insider. “She believes there is no trust between the two political sides and that we can’t function as a democracy without it.â€? …

The solution [to Hillary’s electability problem], insiders say, is for Clinton to take over as Senate minority leader in 2009 from the lacklustre Harry Reid, senator for Nevada. One well-respected blog, The Washington Note, recently claimed that Reid privately told Clinton the job was hers if she gave up her presidential ambitions.

Reid’s office denied it, but the claim made its way into the Los Angeles Times where it was suggested she would make a “superlative Senate leader� while keeping her options open for the 2012 presidential race.

Here is the referenced Washington Post blog post. And here is the referenced L.A. Times article, actually an op-ed by Ezra Klein.

Is this a genuine possibility, or just a clever disinformation campaign, as Texasyank believes? We link, you decide.

P.S. Meanwhile, things are looking bleak for the Republicans, and good for the Democrats, as this year’s November elections approach.

P.P.S. Much more detail on the ‘06 election outlook here.