As of 5pm, T.D. 6 isn’t strengthening as expected — in fact, it may actually be weakening:

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. IN FACT… IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND HAS A SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE. . . . SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY… BUT THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS NOW. . . . SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH… ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS… AFTER WHICH MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN.

I’ve heard all this before, of course. I believe the storm’s name was… Ernesto. :) But really, the computer models weren’t wrong about Ernesto: the atmosphere was favorable for significant intensification. It’s just that the storm was over land when that happened!

Here’s an article with more details about Steve Irwin’s death, including the fact that it was caught on tape, and the video has been turned over to police. (Hat tip: Sergio.)

Bad news for anyone hoping to get tickets to Michigan State or some other road game: this morning’s Observer states, “Ticket lottery is open to Notre Dame undergraduates only.” D’oh!

You’ve seen the fake newspaper. Now watch the fake video. Warning: profanity!

Heh. (Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan.)

Tropical Depression Six is almost a tropical storm, according to the 11am discussion:

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING STORM STRENGTH. CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION…THOUGH THESE BANDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FAR FROM THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE DEPRESSION AT 0901 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE ARE PLENTY OF 25 TO 30 KT [30 to 35 mph] WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION… AND A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLY RAIN-INFLATED 35 KT [40 mph] VECTORS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH… QUIKSCAT IS NOT CLEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH AN INTENSITY AND WITH THE CONVECTION REMAINING A LITTLE THIN… THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT [35 mph].

Bryan Woods at The Storm Track is skeptical. But Dr. Jeff Masters agrees with the NHC’s analysis, and says proto-Florence will likely earn its name soon.

The long-term GFS loop shows Florence, by then a hurricane, recurving out to sea a few hundred miles east of New England, then walloping Newfoundland as (presumably) a transitioning or extratropical storm. Of course, it’s (I say again) way too early to take such track details seriously. [So why do you keep mentioning them? -ed. … I can’t help myself! Mr. Worf, fire up the hype machine!]

On a related note, Charles Fenwick looks at the climatology:

As you can see [from this map of August and September depressions and storms that passed within 100 nautical miles of T.D. 6’s 11pm position], it is difficult for storms that start as far north as 6 did to make it to the east coast; most go up the gap that opens when the Bermuda high is in an easterly position. There are, though, some notorious storms that have started to go up such a gap only to have the high strengthen or shift to the west, which forces the storm ashore, such as Gloria and the 1938 storm…with Diane perhaps being the most dramatic example of a high trapping a storm that would have been headed out to sea.

Last but not least, “SciGuy” Eric Berger notes that the computer models show another storm trailing behind Florence in a few days. Proto-Gordon?

Steve Irwin, better known as the Crocodile Hunter, has died according to Australian news. The cause of death was apparently a stab wound from a sting ray that pierced his chest.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Australia’s news.com.au has more details on Irwin’s death:

A doctor and witnesses have told of the desperate efforts to save Australian icon Steve Irwin after the Crocodile Hunter was struck in the chest by a stingray barb today.

Irwin, 44, died this morning after being fatally injured while filming a nature documentary off Queensland. …

Choking back tears, [Irwin’s manager John] Stainton said Irwin had gone “over the top of a stingray and a stingray’s barb went up and went into his chest and put a hole into his heartâ€?.

“He possibly died instantly when the barb hit him, and I don’t think that he … felt any pain.â€? …

Mr Stainton admitted he had always feared Irwin might meet his death while working with wildlife, but added that Irwin himself was never scared.

“We’ve been in some pretty close shaves. (But) nothing would ever scare Steve or would worry him. He didn’t have a fear of death at all.â€?

In an sad twist, it has been reported that his new documentary was aimed at demystifying the stingray. However Mr Stainton said Irwin was filming other footage for a program with [his eight-year-old daughter] Bindi at the time of the attack.

Read the whole thing, which also includes links to various other articles about the tragedy.

As I said in comments, I too often wondered, while watching Irwin’s antics on TV, if he would ultimately meet his demise at the hands of some dangerous animal. Alas, “nature’s wayâ€? finally caught up to the Croc Hunter. Rest in peace, mate.

P.S. Irwin’s Wikipedia entry has more:

On 4 September 2006, Irwin was fatally pierced in the chest into his heart by a stingray barb, while off the Great Barrier Reef in Queensland, Australia while filming a segment for his daughter Bindi Irwin’s (8 years old at the time) upcoming series. Irwin was in the area filming his own documentary, to be called Ocean’s Deadliest, but weather had stalled filming. Irwin decided to take the opportunity to film some shallow water shots for his daughter’s program. The BBC reported that this was only the second known fatality in Australian history from a stingray attack. The Sydney Morning Herald lists it as the third known death; the other two deaths being in 1938 and 1945.

Shortly after 11:00 a.m. local time (01:00 UTC), Irwin was filming in the Low Isles, Queensland near Port Douglas, north of Cairns, Queensland, Australia, where he was stung either through his heart or through the left side of his chest. After he was stung, his crew called for medical help and attempted to resuscitate him. The Queensland Rescue Helicopter responded, taking him to Cairns Base Hospital. However, Irwin was pronounced dead at noon. He was not killed by the sting itself but from a puncture to the heart in turn causing cardiac arrest.