Tropical Storm Chris has formed east of the Lesser Antilles. It’s the first tropical storm to develop this season from a tropical wave that came off of Africa — right on cue for the beginning of August, when we would expect to begin seeing such storms.

It’s clear from the 5:00 AM discussion that the National Hurricane Center really doesn’t have a terribly good handle yet on the track or intensity forecast for this storm. “Last night’s computer model runs did not start out with a very good initial picture of the current strength of Chris, and dissipated the storm within 72 hours,” writes Dr. Jeff Masters. “We need to wait until the next set of model runs based on this morning’s 8am EDT (12Z) data are available before taking much stock in both the track and intensity forecasts of the models.” The 12Z model runs will be incorporated into the 11am EDT (8am MST) NHC advisory, so that forecast will be worth watching for.

For what it’s worth, the current forecast track has Chris heading in the general direction of south Florida — but I wouldn’t put too much stock in that at this point. Five-day forecasts are always unreliable, but especially this one.

FLhurricane.com says: “most likely it will remain a Tropical Storm or even get weaker because of shear. But there is an off chance it could become stronger so it remains something to watch.” AccuWeather says:

Tropical Storm Chris will bring squally conditions to the Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. But, since it will be moving through the Leeward Islands, friction caused by the islands might prevent the depression from intensifying. Computer models continue to show a west northwest course which will keep the system over or near the Greater Antilles. This could further prevent intensification, and a large upper-level low north of the Bahamas may shear the storm later this week. If the system can avoid most of the islands, we project the system will be somewhere between the central Bahamas and southeast Cuba by Friday. This system could directly affect Florida early next week.

The bottom line is: stay tuned.

In other hurricane-related news, Dr. Masters yesterday pointed out something scary: while overall sea-surface temperatures are roughly normal (as opposed to last year, when they were 2 degrees Celsius above normal), “we again see an ominous looking red bullseye [of high oceanic heat content] in the central Gulf of Mexico this year, similar to what was there last year.” It’s the kraken Loop Current:

[T]he Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward through the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and into the Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. During summer and fall, the Loop Current provides a deep (80 - 150 meter) layer of very warm water that can provide a huge energy source for any lucky hurricanes that might cross over. Every 6 to 11 months, the Loop Current sheds an eddy that moves westward at 3-5 km per day across the Gulf of Mexico. These eddies can double the area of the Gulf where explosive hurricane intensification can occur. When the loop current sheds an eddy at the height of hurricane season, it’s bad news for the residents along the Gulf Coast. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and “bombed” into a Category 5 hurricane.

Unfortunately, there’s bad news again this year. Another Loop Current Eddy has just separated, and is now spinning in the central Gulf of Mexico, ready to fuel explosive intensification of any system that might cross the Gulf. The position of this year’s eddy makes it primarily a threat for hurricanes that would hit Mississippi, Louisiana, or the upper Texas coast. … [T]he new eddy is similar in heat content and only about 25% smaller in size than the eddy that fueled the intensification of Katrina and Rita in 2005. Let’s hope we don’t get a hurricane in the Gulf this year that crosses over this eddy!

Luckily, the steering pattern for August, at least, seems less likely than 2005’s pattern to favor storms heading into the Gulf. In today’s post, Dr. Masters writes:

For much of June and July, the jet stream made a dip over the eastern U.S., creating a persistent trough of low pressure. In concert with the jet stream, the Bermuda High has stayed further east than it did in 2005. The resulting steering pattern has been taking tropical waves through the Bahamas, then north along the East Coast and out to sea. Tropical Storm Beryl took this path as well. The long range forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center calls for not as strong a trough of low pressure for the remainder of hurricane season. Instead, we should expect a near normal steering pattern, with all regions of the Atlantic under their usual risk of hurricane strikes. However, the latest 2-week GFS model forecast is calling for a continuation of the June and July steering pattern, but with a somewhat weaker trough over the Eastern U.S. Thus, I am forecasting that the entire East Coast of the U.S. will have a higher than average risk of hurricane strikes in August, and the Gulf Coast will have a lower than average risk. The highest risk area of the East Coast will probably be North Carolina and South Carolina. As far as the actual percentage risks, I’ll leave that up to Dr. Bill Gray’s forecast team at Colorado State, who will be putting out their updated Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday, August 3.