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Commenter Aaron points to fascinating Wall Street Journal article by Ross Douthat called “What Year Is It?,” which posits that the various foreign-policy factions in this country can be broken down into five groups on the basis of “what year they think it is.” There are the 1919ists, the 1938ists, the 1942ists, the 1948ists, and the 1972ists. (Aaron says he’s “about 20% ‘72er and 60% ‘48er, with a 15% dollop of ‘38ish worry and a 5% dash of ‘19er isolationism.”)

I’ll refrain from blockquoting a lengthy excerpt, and will instead simply encourage you to read the whole thing. It’s definitely worth it.

I will, however, quote the punch line:

A few voices have spoken up of late for the most disquieting possibility of all. This possibility lacks heroes and villains (Bush/Wilson, Ahmadinejad/Hitler) and obvious lessons (impeach Bush, stay the course in Iraq). But as our crisis deepens, it’s worth considering 1914ism, and with it the possibility that all of us, whatever year we think it is, are poised on the edge of an abyss that nobody saw coming.

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In a comment on my previous post about “proto-Ernesto” (a.k.a. Invest 97L), “tree hugging sister” writes: “Dr. Masters is now saying a new center of circulation has formed about 100 miles north of the old one, removing the South American coast as an impediment to development. Peachy.” She’s right. Sayeth Dr. Jeff at 12:17 PM EDT:

An important development has occurred in the past two hours–a new circulation center developed near 12.5N 63W, about 100 miles north-northwest of the original center near the South American coast. This new center lies between St. Vincent and Grenada, and southwest winds observed last hour in Grenada confirms that a closed circulation now exists at the surface. [This would seem to suggest that proto-Ernesto will likely be designated quite soon as a tropical depression or storm by the NHC. -ed.] The old center near the South American coast now looks likely to dissipate. Inflow of warm, moist air into its center was too restricted by the presence of the South American land mass, and thus a new center farther north along the axis of this tropical wave was able to form and take over. …

The separation of its center from the coast removes the primary impediment to intensification for 97L. It looks more likely that this storm will develop into at least a strong tropical storm, and probably a hurricane. The track such a hurricane might take is highly uncertain, but the more northerly center increases the risk for Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast.

Dr. Masters also says the next few hours are crucial to proto-Ernesto’s future:

What happens in the next few hours in crucial in determining if we have a serious hurricane to worry about in a few days, or just a another harmless tropical blob. The storm is very vulnerable to wind shear right now as it reorganizes. The center of circulation is almost completely exposed, with just one spiral band of heavy thunderstorms connected to the northeast side of the center. Upper level winds out of the west are creating about 10 knots of wind shear over the center, keeping the band of thunderstorms pushed to the downwind side of the center. If the shear can increase a little this afternoon, it may disrupt the storm enough to keep it from developing today. The new center location also puts the storm closer to the large area of dry air and Saharan dust that covers much of the eastern Caribbean. This may also help disrupt the storm.

However, I think 97L will overcome these obstacles. Wind shear is probably low enough to allow the storm to reform, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the center jump again more to the east, to be underneath the strongest thunderstorms. The shear is forecast to remain low through the next five days. There is a zone of very high shear to the system’s north, but it is forecast to retreat to the west ahead of the developing storm.

Stay tuned.

Oh, that’d be good. The Jerusalem Post reports:

Israel is carefully watching the world’s reaction to Iran’s continued refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, with some high-level officials arguing it is now clear that when it comes to stopping Iran, Israel “may have to go it alone,” The Jerusalem Post has learned.

One senior source said on Tuesday that Iran “flipped the world the bird” by not responding positively to the Western incentive plan to stop uranium enrichment. He expressed frustration that the Russians and Chinese were already saying that Iran’s offer of a “new formula” and willingness to enter “serious negotiations” was an opening to keep on talking.

“The Iranians know the world will do nothing,” he said. “This is similar to the world’s attempts to appease Hitler in the 1930s - they are trying to feed the beast.”

He said there was a need to understand that “when push comes to shove,” Israel would have to be prepared to “slow down” the Iranian nuclear threat by itself.

Having said this, he did not rule out the possibility of US military action, but said that if this were to take place, it would probably not occur until the spring or summer of 2008, a few months before President George W. Bush leaves the international stage. The US presidential elections, which Bush cannot contest because of term limits, are in November 2008.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, in a meeting in Paris with French Foreign Minister Phillippe Douste-Blazy Wednesday, said Iran “poses a global threat” and needed to be dealt with by the whole international community.

“The first thing they need to do is stop the enrichment of uranium,” Livni said. “Everyday that passes brings the Iranians closer to building a nuclear bomb. The world can’t afford a nuclear Iran.” She said the Iranian reply to the Western incentives was just an attempt to “gain time.”

Whatever one thinks of the possibility of military action, by either America or Israel, or of the Hitler analogy, isn’t that last part obviously right?

Iran has us right where they want us, and they know it, and so do we. And nobody’s doing anything to change that.

Brendan Loy, August 14, 2006:

Heaven help us if Onterrio Smith ever joins forces with the jihadists — then authorities will have to check for prosthetic penises with liquid exposives in them. The Whizzinator enters the age of terror…

Chicago Sun-Times, August 24, 2006:

The female airport security guard held the small, black, squeezable rubber object she’d just plucked out of Mardin Amin’s backpack, and eyed it suspiciously.

Standing next to his mother, an embarrassed Amin whispered out of one corner of his mouth that it was a “pump” — as in a penis pump. The guard misunderstood the Iraqi man and thought she heard the word “bomb,” Amin’s attorney told a Cook County judge Wednesday.

“He told her it’s a pump,” attorney Eileen O’Neill-Burke said as a cluster of burly, snickering police officers watched the court proceedings. “He’s standing with his mother. Of course he’s not going to shout this out.”

But after listening to the female guard testify she heard Amin “clearly” say the word bomb during the Aug. 16 incident at O’Hare Airport, Judge Gerald Winiecki decided there was enough evidence for the case to move forward. Amin, 29, is charged with felony disorderly conduct and faces up to three years in prison if convicted.

Prosecutors say Amin, who was on his way to Turkey with his mother and two small children last week, twice told security officials that he was carrying a bomb. Only later did he admit he had initially lied about the rubber object’s true function because he didn’t want his mother to know he was carrying a penis pump, prosecutors say.

After Wednesday’s hearing, a mostly jovial Amin said airport security officials never gave him an opportunity to explain the misunderstanding. And he said he would never utter the word “bomb” while going through security.

“Come on — what do you think?” said Amin, who lives in Skokie and works for a janitorial service.

Amin may not want his mother to know he has a penis pump, but he said he doesn’t consider it an unusual device to own.

“It’s normal,” he said. “Half of America they use it.”

Amin is due back in court Sept. 13.

While Tropical Storm Debby swims with the fishes, all attention is focused on a blob of clouds just east of the Lesser Antilles that is, for the moment, designated only as “Invest 97L” — or, as I’m calling it, “proto-Ernesto.” (Not quite as catchy as “proto-Alberto,” but close.)

It is passing strange to see an “Invest,” a mere “proto” storm that hasn’t even been designed as a depression yet, getting more attention than a named tropical storm that is expected to become the season’s first hurricane this weekend. And indeed, that a storm like proto-Ernesto is getting MSM coverage at all is decidedly a post-Katrina phenomenon; no “Invest” would have merited a Reuters article last year, or in previous years. But the level of attention does make some sense. As Mark Sudduth of Hurricane Track explained last night:

Debby is not of much concern to any land areas and should continue to move on out to the open ocean as it slowly intensifies. … No matter how strong it gets, it will not be an issue for anyone except shipping interests.

Of greater concern now is the tropical wave/low pressure area that is approaching the Windward Islands. It looks as though this will go on and develop in to a tropical depression and likely a storm. In fact, the GFDL computer model shows it becoming a strong hurricane as it heads in to the northwest Caribbean Sea. Even the NHC’s intensity model shows this becoming a hurricane. Needless to say, we will want to keep a close watch on the future of this system.

It’s far too early to speculate about track details, but the computer models show Ernesto approaching the Gulf of Mexico in 5 or 6 days. And let’s not forget about what’s happening with the Loop Current… yikes. So this potentially could be a problem for somewhere along the Gulf Coast late next week or next weekend — just a few days after the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

Here’s Dr. Jeff Masters’s take:

A powerful tropical wave that has the potential to become a serious hurricane is sweeping through the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today, bringing tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rains. Barbados reported sustained winds of 32 mph at 5am this morning. Togabo had wind gusts to 36 mph, and wind gusts to 43 mph were observed on St. Lucia. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 6:30am EDT shows a large area of 35 mph winds to the north of the center, which appears to be near 11N 59W, near the islands of Trinidad and Tobago and just off the South American coast. The storm’s organization has steadily increased since yesterday, and the Hurricane Hunters are tasked to investigate this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed. …

Wind shear is favorable in a small area over the storm–5-10 knots–and is forecast to remain low through the next five days. However, there is a zone of very high shear to the system’s north, so the forecast of low shear could easily change. A large area of dry air and Saharan dust covers much of the eastern Caribbean, and may be a modest impediment to intensification. The primary difficulty for the storm lies in its close proximity to South America. The storm center may hug the coast through Saturday, limiting its development. The storm should bring heavy rains and winds near tropical storm force over the ABC Islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao on Friday. After that, there is a lot of uncertainty.

The latest 8pm and 2am EDT computer model runs have a variety of solutions. The Canadian model continues to be very consistent and very gung-ho, developing 97L into a strong tropical storm on Saturday, south of Jamaica, then taking the storm into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. The NOGAPS model is also consistent, assuming a more southerly track will occur with no development due to close proximity to the South American coast. The GFS takes a weak tropical storm across the Dominican Republic on Saturday, then into the Bahamas. The GFDL has the same idea, but has a much stronger system that becomes a Category 1 hurricane in the Bahamas on Monday.

The run-to-run consistency of the GFDL has been poor, and both the GFDL and GFS have not done a good job forecasting the initial track of the storm so far. A more southerly track betwen Jamaica and Honduras like the Canadian and NOGAPS models are suggesting is probably more reasonable. If 97L can survive the next two days and separate from the South American coast–which it has at least a 50/50 chance of doing–I believe it will probably develop into a serious hurricane, as the GFDL and Canadian models have been suggesting. The track such a hurricane might take is highly uncertain, but it appears that Jamaica, Cuba, and the Yucatan would be at highest risk in the Caribbean. No part of the U.S. coast can be ruled out as a target in the longer term.

Got travel plans to the Caribbean this week? Don’t change them yet. This appears to be an all-or-nothing kind of situation, and we could get nothing. It may not be until Saturday that we have a reasonable idea if this storm will be a major threat.

Whatever the long-term future of Invest 97L, Bryan Woods at The Storm Track makes the broader point: “It looks like the tropical season in the Atlantic is finally starting to pick up, and right on time, too.” If the NHC does declare proto-Ernesto a tropical depression or storm sometime soon, we’ll have two tropical cyclones spinning in the Atlantic for the first time this season. And probably not the last.

Leading astronomers say Pluto is no longer defined as a planet, The Associated Press reports. Visit CNN for the latest.

When Dick Cheney was visiting town, the Buckingham Palace Marching Band made an intriguing — and hilarious — choice of music in his honor:

I don’t care who you are, that’s funny right there. (Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan.)

Does Turkey want to be a member of the European Union, or the axis of evil?

Some more heavy weather is moving in off the lake this morning. Closer view here. No warnings at the moment, though.

Meanwhile, more details are emerging about yesterday’s severe, possibly tornadic storms:

A one-two punch of powerful storms, accompanied by tornado reports, battered northeastern Porter County, much of LaPorte County and parts of Lake County on Wednesday evening.

Emergency management crews worked late into the night, clearing roadways, marking downed power lines and checking for injured residents.

The hardest hit areas in Porter County included Dune Acres, Beverly Shores and Pines. Washington Park in Michigan City was wracked by tornado-like winds that whipped boats around at the in-water Boat Show set to begin today for a three-day run. Winds of 106 mph were reported by WGN-TV meteorologist Tom Skilling.

At least one tractor-trailer was toppled by winds on Interstate 94 near Westville.

The Porter County Sheriff’s Department received several unconfirmed reports of funnel clouds that touched down, including a report about 7:30 p.m. of a funnel cloud near U.S. 231 south of Hebron near the Porter-Lake county line.

Read the whole thing. More here and here.

The tornadoes haven’t actually been confirmed by the NWS yet, but WNDU is reporting that experts say all the signs point in that direction, and lots of witnesses report seeing funnel clouds.

Here’s the latest on today’s tornado(es) in northwestern Indiana about 40 miles west of South Bend:

A severe thunderstorm and a possible tornado swept off Lake Michigan Wednesday evening, downing trees and power lines and causing some injuries.

Heavy damage was also reported at a boat show scheduled to begin Thursday at the Washington Park Marina on Lake Michigan, police said.

LaPorte County 911 Assistant Director Beth West said some injuries were reported in the county, but she did not have any details.

Sightings of funnel clouds in the area midway between South Bend and Gary were reported to the National Weather Service, but no touchdowns were immediately confirmed.

Additional police officers were called in to work in Michigan City because of the troubles from the storm.

NIPSCO spokesman Mike Charbonneau said about 3,800 homes and businesses were without power in the Michigan City and LaPorte areas immediately after the storm moved through.

“The storm hit pretty hard in those areas,” he said.

West said the storm hit especially hard in Westville, where the wind scattered a lumber company’s entire stack of lumber across the railroad tracks.

More here.

Here is a very, very, very rough — and entirely unofficial, and probably quite wrong in terms of the details — map of where the tornadoes or cells that seemed to do the most damage went, based on the radar loops and the various initial reports of damage:

Meanwhile, there’s quite a bit of lightning up in the Benton Harbor area. And it looks like there could be more where that came from tonight.

UPDATE: In other news, because my aborted attempt at “post-storm chasing” tonight proved utterly futile, and because its futility is currently dominating the homepage, I’m going to delete those posts and put them in sequential order after the jump, so the historical record is preserved while more important posts are bumped back up to the top of my blog for now:

(more…)

Continuing from the post below… WNDU is reporting “huge trees down all over the place” in the Beverly Shores area, after a tornado hit earlier this hour. Previously, NWS spotters sighted a tornado hitting the intersections of routes 12 and 35 in Michigan City, and WNDU reported 20 downed trees lying across route 431 in Westville, and a semi truck blown over two miles north of Westville.

And now, there’s a new tornadic cell making “landfall” (off Lake Michigan), causing rotation in the Dune Acres/Chesterton area (west of Michigan City).

But we’re safe here in South Bend. WNDU’s meteorologist says: “If you live in South Bend/Mishawaka, you’re going to get a little rain, maybe a bolt of lightning, and that’s it. The worst weather is going to continue to be in our western viewing area.”

Here’s an archived animated radar view. Be patient, it takes a while to fully load.

Latest radar here.

As a badass thunderstorm cell moves in, a tornado warning is in effect for portions of Porter County, two counties west of St. Joe’s County:

AT 601 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO NEAR BEVERLY SHORES..MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 32 BY 610 PM [7:10 EDT].

HUGE lightning strike and thunderclap just now!! Holy crap!!

UPDATE, 7:18 PM: Now, a new tornado warning is in effect for northwestern portions of LaPorte County, our immediate neighbor to the west:

AT 607 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. FIRE DEPARTMENT PERSONEL IN MICHIGAN CITY REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS OFFSHORE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 609 PM CDT. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MICHIGAN CITY…OR ABOUT OVER MICHIGAN CITY…AND MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

UPDATE, 7:23 PM: WNDU has a spotter report that a tornado hit near the intersections of 12 and 35 in Michigan City.

The close-up radar view shows that the tornadic cell should definitely past west of us here in South Bend. But tornado watches have been issued for various counties to our south and southwest.

UPDATE, 7:31 PM: As of 7:21, the latest NWS tornado warning advisory says:

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT (800 PM EDT) FOR NORTHWESTERN LA PORTE COUNTY…

AT 617 PM CDT…SPOTTERS REPORTED STRONG ROTATION AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO IN MICHIGAN CITY AT THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTES 12 AND 35. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TRAIL CREEK…OR ABOUT OVER TRAIL CREEK…AND MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE STORM INCLUDE… LA PORTE… WESTVILLE… OTIS…

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO…THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

UPDATE, 7:36 PM: WNDU is reporting 20 downed trees across US-431 in Westville. And a semi truck blown over, two miles north of Westville.

It looks like there are possibly two tornadoes moving SSE through far western LaPorte County now.