Ernesto is downgraded from hurricane to tropical storm, but a hurricane watch is issued for the Florida Keys, the National Hurricane Center says. Visit CNN for the latest.

With the central Gulf Coast, including ultra-vulnerable New Orleans, now apparently out of the woods, the question becomes: could Hurricane Ernesto be the nightmare hurricane for the Florida Keys and/or Tampa Bay? With the caveat that we should be looking at the “cone,” not the track line, the forecast track and computer models are moving in a direction which makes that seem possible:

The good news is, land interaction with Cuba should interfere with Ernesto, and the water between Cuba and Florida doesn’t have as much heat potential as the water in the central Gulf:

Hopefully, all that will prevent Ernesto from become a truly intense hurricane — i.e., Cat 4 or 5 — as I feared it would on the previous track. Still, any major hurricane (Cat. 3 or above) hitting the Keys would be a Very Bad Thing, and I’m guessing a Cat. 3 hitting Tampa Bay probably wouldn’t be a walk in the park, either.

Again I should emphasize: it’s far too early to know exactly where this thing is headed, and everyone within the track “cone” should be making the requisite preparations.

UPDATE: Charles Fenwick says where Ernesto hits Cuba is important, and offers a cautionary note:

A huge wildcard in the intensity forecast is exactly where Ernesto goes into Cuba at. The official forecast takes it very near the highest point on the island, the 6750 foot high Pico Turquino. Hurricane Ella of 1958 went more or less square into it as a category three hurricane and came out as a tropical storm. Cleo of 1964 passed just to the south and went from a category three to a one in the process. If the future track of Ernesto were to go just as forecast, or ever so slightly to the right over the next 36 hours, then the weakening would probably be quite a bit more substantial than the forecast currently shows.

Other than that, however, there isn’t much impediment for Ernesto. The upper air enviroment is forecast to be extremely favorable for strengthening. The experience of Charley 2004 shows what can happen to a hurricane in a favorable enviroment, in spite of the seemingly limited space between Cuba and Florida. A track ever slightly left of the current forecast, keeping the storm mostly over water with the exception of a brief jaunt over the flat terrain in the center of Cuba would set up quite a worrisome situation.

And another cautionary note:

The scenario bringing Ernesto into peninsular Florida is the erosion of a mid-level ridge of high pressure that would otherwise push Ernesto to the west. It is the sort of scenario that the models are often too eager to forecast (such as was the case during Ivan in 2004). Because of that there is a chance for the forecast to get pushed back to the west somewhat, especially if the upper-air mission to be flown tonight found a stronger ridge than the models are depicting.

Meanwhile, Mark Sudduth summarizes what has changed:

Ernesto is a prime example of how tricky it can be to forecast a hurricane. Last night, it looked like the Florida panhandle could be directly impacted by Ernesto in about six days. Now, it looks like the Florida west coast could take a direct hit from the hurricane. Overnight, the global and regional models changed their tune fairly dramatically and have turned Ernesto sharper to the right of its original forecast track- thus greatly increasing the threat to Cuba, the Florida Keys and then the west coast of Florida. Even the Southeast, especially Georgia and the Carolinas will need to monitor Ernesto’s track as it may end up being a problem farther north as well.

The latest track takes the hurricane inland near Tampa on Thursday. Trust me, this is going to make national news as people will have to be evacuated that thought there was little threat from this hurricane. The exact track is going to be critical as Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge- as is most of the west coast of Florida. The NHC currently forecasts a 90-100 mph hurricane making landfall, hopefully it will not be stronger. I am concerned about people being caught off-guard since this is quite a change from earlier thoughts, so it is important that people in Florida pay close attention to the future track of Erensto.

Much more, all of it well worth reading, from Dr. Jeff Masters and Margie Kieper (whose headline is: “This would be the wrong time for the FL Keys to hold a big party”).

I’m off to Shannon’s baby shower now, so updates will be sparse-to-nonexistent for the rest of the afternoon, unless they come from guestbloggers. But check out the links at top right — lots of great weatherbloggers and other info there, including of course the NHC.

All 50 people aboard a Delta commuter flight are presumed dead after the plane crashed near Blue Grass Airport in Lexington, Kentucky, an FAA spokeswoman tells CNN. Visit CNN for the latest.

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Ernesto to a hurricane. Important sections of the NHC discussion:

LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. …

THE FLIGHT CREW HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED ON THE SYSTEM NOW…AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING OUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS. …

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. …

THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER…ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96 HOURS…AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS.

And here is the NHC forecast 5-day tracking map.

Ernesto's top winds reach 75 mph, making it the 2006 season's first hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center. Visit CNN for the latest.

Two Fox journalists kidnapped two weeks ago in Gaza have been released, according to the Palestinian news service Ramattan and Fox News. Visit CNN for the latest.

At 7:35 PM, InstaPundit linked to me with the tagline “IT’S ‘HURRICANE ERNESTO’ NOW.” When I saw that, I scrambled over to the National Hurricane Center website, to see if Glenn knew something I don’t know. But no, Ernesto is still a tropical storm, with 60 mph winds, as of 8:00 PM EDT. I’m guessing Glenn’s confusion comes from this AP article, which erroneously states:

As the first anniversary of Hurricane Katrina approaches, some residents prepared Saturday to evacuate amid forecasts of another hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico. …

Gov. Kathleen Blanco said state officials were keeping an eye on Hurricane Ernesto, and the Army Corps was carefully tracking the storm’s movement, Lt. Gen. Carl Strock said.

The article is all over the Internet — and it’s completely wrong. Ernesto will probably be a hurricane soon, but it’s not yet. Where are the fact-checkers? Heads must roll! :)

P.S. For the latest on Ernesto, see the 8:30 update below.

Ernesto is up to 60 mph, the center has re-formed closer to the convection, and the models are now pointing more toward Florida. On an unrelated note, the photo is of Shannon and PJ, and Logan (in
Shannon's belly), who is due in mid-late September. Aww! :)

UPDATE: More pics of Shannon (and Logan) after the jump.

(more…)

UPDATE, 8:30 PM: Welcome, InstaPundit readers! Thanks for the link, Glenn! However, a correction is in order: [Glenn has now fixed the error -ed.] Ernesto is not a hurricane yet, despite what the Associated Press would have you believe.

Also… the computer models now appear to be clustering on a track taking Ernesto toward the eastern half of the U.S. Gulf Coast — somewhere between New Orleans and Florida — rather than Texas or western Louisiana. It’s far too early to say for sure, but here’s what SciGuy is saying:

The 4 p.m. forecast track update from the National Hurricane Center reflects a significant eastward shift in the computer models today.

This shift has occurred for two reasons. First, there’s now a bit of confidence that a ridge of high pressure over the northern Gulf coast will, indeed, weaken next week, allowing the system to move in a more northerly fashion when it enters the Gulf. Second, the storm’s center appears to have reformed northeast of where it was earlier.

All of this means that southeast Texas now faces a much lower chance of getting hit by Ernesto next week. It’s not time to signal the all-clear, but if tomorrow morning’s model runs confirm this trend we will probably be in pretty good shape. Unfortunately for others, the storm now appears likely to strike somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle.

Here’s what the latest computer model tracks look like:

 
 
*** ORIGINAL POST BEGINS HERE ***
 
 
“Chances of Ernesto weakening now slim,” declares the Houston Chronicle’s SciGuy, Eric Berger:

Although it is too early to tell where Tropical Storm Ernesto will make landfall, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the storm will probably not break apart. As a result the entire Gulf Coast must be on alert because a powerful storm is likely to enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning.

Overnight Ernesto has battled through some difficult wind shear, and instead of weakening it has strengthened to 50 mph winds. Its minimum pressure, a good measure of the storm’s organization, has also steadily dropped, and is now 997 millibars. …

There’s still a chance that wind shear, which should affect Ernesto for about another day, will impair its organization. But if the system remains strong by tomorrow night it will likely survive, and then thrive once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico next week.

And where will it go? Some of the most reliable models turn the storm northward, toward Mobile Bay or even northern Florida. The GFDL model, for example brings it to the Florida Panhandle by Thursday as a category-4 storm. In reality, the storm could land anywhere from Brownsville to southern Florida. The odds of a Houston-area strike, however, appear lower today than yesterday.

Alan Sullivan agrees with the notion of a more easterly track: “It may give New Orleans a scare, but I would bet on a turn toward the Florida Panhandle.” He also says:

Warmth runs deep in the waters of the western Caribbean. Explosive intensification is common there. In the past few years, several storms have spun to great intensity south of Cuba. Last October Wilma became the most violent hurricane ever observed as it passed through that area.

Here’s the map, from The Storm Track:

But, Sullivan points out, “It appears that Ernesto will track a little further north. It may actually cross western Cuba before entering the Gulf.”

As noted yesterday, the water in the Gulf is plenty warm, too. So, how strong will Ernesto get? Charles Fenwick says: “The peak of the intensification forecast by the intensity models have increased, with the SHIPS model raising the storm to 100 mph and the GFDL being more agressive, raising Ernesto to Category 4 strength at 140 mph. The official forecast is an average of the two.” Actually, it’s a conservative “average,” 115 mph.

Getting back to the track forecast… FLhurricane.com says an upper-level low in the northwestern U.S. holds the future of Ernesto’s fate. Unfortunately, the computer models can’t decide what to do with it. Fenwick writes:

I wouldn’t put too much weight on the forecast models until they are fed the upper air data collected by the GulfStream IV and that won’t happen until Sunday evening at the earliest. It would not be surprising to see the NHC continue their neutral hedge [splitting the difference and taking the average of the computer model forecast tracks] until then. People from the Big Bend of Florida to Texas should keep an eye on it this weekend and be thinking about the preparations that they would start making next week if Ernesto were to head their way.

Sayeth the SciGuy: “I’ll stand by my only prediction, however: we won’t know anything truly meaningful about where the storm is going until Sunday night or Monday.”

I can’t connect to Google… or Weather Underground. Anyone else having this problem?

As of the 11am advisory, Ernesto has sustained winds of up to nearly 50 MPH. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman islands, and Jamaica is under a Tropical Storm warning. It still seems likely that Ernesto could be become a major hurricane once he gets past Jamaica. I’ve also noticed that the center of the 5-Day Cone seems to get closer and closer to New Orleans. Of course, Ernesto could still get killed off by wind shear, and also, it’s a cone, not a line. Just saying that I’m starting to get a bit nervous for the Gulf Coast, and New Orleans especially.

The Stanford Tree, bless its bark, is in the news again.

Could we have a hurricane spinning and strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico, menacing the coast, on the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina? It looks increasingly likely. Here’s the latest five-day forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:

It’s way too early to start seriously speculating about possible landfall locations… but, do you think the folks affected by Katrina and Rita are feeling a little nervous right now? Yeah, I think so too. (That said, everyone from Florida to Texas should be watching this thing closely. Five-day forecasts have a very wide margin for error, as the track “cone” indicates.)

The official forecast has Ernesto reaching hurricane strength on Monday, sitting on the borderline of Category 1 and 2 on Tuesday (the anniversary of Katrina’s landfall), and achieving Category 2 strength on Wednesday. And, as is the NHC’s wont when it comes to long-range intensity forecasts, those predictions are conservative: “MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EVEN STRONGER INTENSITY.” It’s easy to see why. If the forecast scenario plays out as advertised, I don’t see what would stop Ernesto from become an intense hurricane:

CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WITH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST…AND THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW SHOULD END UP ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN…AND IN FACT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IN 36-48 HOURS AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH DAY 5.

The Houston Chronicle’s SciGuy says Ernesto could still fall apart before becoming a major threat, a la Chris:

The next 24 to 36 hours are critical because there’s still a good chance wind shear can tear the storm apart by Sunday. But if it continues to strengthen and remains intact by Sunday night, the system will be a threat to all points along the Gulf.

Potentially, a very serious threat. A well-developed tropical cyclone + minimal wind shear + the Loop Current = trouble. Yikes. Stay tuned.

P.S. Charles Fenwick is emphasizing the track forecast error margin:

The models are in excellent agreement for the first two days of the forecast, but diverge significantly after that. One shouldn’t put much weight in the track forecast after that, Because it’s just a hedge of the different model outputs, it doesn’t favor any of them. 5 day forecasts always have a large amount of uncertainty in them, but it’s even moreso in this instance. Everyone on the Gulf coast should keep a bit of an eye on Ernesto this weekend to see how the forecast evolves and be thinking about what preparations they may need to make during the early part of next week.

Dr. Jeff Masters has more.

P.P.S. Quoth Margie Kieper:

Just sit tight and make a plan, and try to chill for the weekend, and do not look at the CONU 26/0000Z. There’s no way to know until Sunday evening exactly how this is going to shake out, and what we’ll be expecting on Tuesday, but it will likely be something a little more complex than an anniversary.

P.P.P.S. The Storm Track has much more, including this map and description of the warm waters that lie ahead:

By using radar altimeters aboard satellites, we can actually see an expansion of the ocean and higher sea levels where there are deep layers of warm water. One such deep layer is positioned just south of Louisiana at this time. Oceanographers call these features “warm core rings” and they are nothing more than warm parcels of water that break off of the Loop Current near the Florida Keys and drift northward towards Louisiana and eventually westward towards Texas. This particular warm core ring is extremely strong and would provide an incredible amount of energy to any hurricane that would pass over it. Warm core rings weaker than this one were responsible of the very rapid strengthening observed in hurricanes Opal, Katrina, and Rita among others. If Ernesto were to drift over this warm tongue of water with favorable atmospheric conditions, as are currently being forecast at that time, Ernesto could undergo a very rapid strengthening. It is worth noting that a similar feature is noticeable to the south of Cuba in the previous map.

As I said: Yikes.

UPDATE, 4:37 AM: In the 2:00 AM EDT public advisory, the NHC says, “…AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A BETTER ORGANIZED ERNESTO…” The wind speed remains the same for now (45 mph), but the pressure has dropped from 1003 mb to 999 mb. Hopefully the 5:00 AM advisory will clarify matters.

UPDATE, 4:50 AM: The 5:00 AM discussion says:

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO AND FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 999 MB WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT.

So, “better organized,” but not stronger… yet.

The intensity forecast has been nudged again toward faster and greater strengthening. Ernesto is now expected to be a hurricane by Sunday night, a Category 2 by Tuesday night, and a Category 3 by Wednesday night. That’s right, the NHC is now officially predicting that Ernesto will become a major hurricane. The discussion explains:

ERNESTO HAS BEEN A FIGHTER AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE STRONG SHEAR SO FAR. UNANIMOUSLY…ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO…A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND VERY SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE…THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND STRENGTHENING MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT DECREASE.

Things could change, but my gut tells me this is the real deal. The NHC seems to feel the same way, judging from the ominous closing like of the discussion:

IN SUMMARY…ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

T.D. 5 is now Tropical Storm Ernesto. The computer models are clustered on a track that keeps it over water with a chance to strengthen as it nears the Gulf. What does a cow have to do with Ernesto?
Nothing, but I was in Chick-fil-a when I got the news. :)

Heading to the kennel to board Robbie (who, admittedly, isn't actually a puppy -- but I call all dogs puppies), then we're off to Buffalo for the weekend for Shannon's baby shower.