FAA acknowledges it violated staffing policies with only one air traffic controller on duty at airport when Comair jet crashed Sunday, killing 49 people. Visit CNN for the latest.

Georgia and Carolina coasts are under hurricane watch because of Tropical Storm Ernesto, National Hurricane Center announces. Visit CNN for the latest.

[UPDATE/CORRECTION, 4:55 PM: It’s time for another “Oh…nevermind” moment. From the 5:00 PM discussion:

DURING THE DAY…ERNESTO BECAME SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED-LOOKING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. RECENTLY…HOWEVER…THE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING ON THE IMAGERY. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED…AND THE FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON WAS ROUGHLY COMMENSURATE WITH THE TYPICAL SEMI-DIURNAL PRESSURE CHANGE. IN OTHER WORDS…ERNESTO IS NOT STRENGTHENING.

Hey, I can’t always be right! :) The NHC also does not appear to be sold on the heading-toward-the-Gulf theory.]

***ORIGINAL POST***

Adam Moyer at The Storm Track says Ernesto is strengthening:

The SFMR aboard the NOAA42 P-3 research aircraft has found surface winds of 55 kts to the east of the center of circulation. Ernesto is becoming much better organized by the hour.

But the big story is that some computer models are taking Ernesto west of the present NHC forecast track, through the Keys and toward the Florida west coast, which could spell trouble because it would give the storm time to strengthen as it rakes the coastline en route to Tampa Bay. Yikes! And the radar loop kinda makes it look like that’s the direction it’s headed:


Please be patient; it may take the animation a few moments to load.

Here’s what Moyer says:

The model forecasts are bimodal this morning. The global models (e.g. GFS, UKMET, Canadian, etc.) are forecasting a landfall early tomorrow morning in the Florida Keys. However, the statistical-dynamical (S-D) models (e.g. the BAMs, LBAR, etc.) are forecasting a landfall tomorrow night near or south of Tampa. Ordinarily, I would dismiss the S-D models as being out to lunch. Here, though, is where the S-D models shine. When a storm is poorly organized and not initialized well in the global models, as Ernesto is right now, the S-D models often have as good, if not better forecasts for a tropical storm. Admittedly, this particular model run has me quite confused.

he intensity forecast is where things get really sticky. If the global models are right, Ernesto will not have much time to intensify and would come ashore on the Keys as moderate to strong tropical storm, since Ernesto is just now starting to reorganize itself. However, if the S-D models are right about the track, Ernesto will have plenty of time to get its act together. That would be bad news for the Gulf coast of Florida. Should the S-D models be correct and Ernesto has 36 hours to spend over the open water, the dreaded rapid intensification is back in the picture again. Currently, the SHIPS forecast has a probability of 32% for rapid intensification. While not high, it is also not insignificant. Should rapid intensification occur, Ernesto could easily be a Category 2 hurricane or higher at landfall on the Gulf coast. At the moment, the intensity models are all forecasting Ernesto to be a strong tropical storm as it makes landfall in the Keys (Figure 4). Obviously, in the models, the S-D solution has not been accounted for. Should the global models’ track be correct, the intensity forecast is more or less correct. If not, Ernesto has the possibility of becoming a major event for the Gulf coast.

This could get interesting* yet. Stay tuned! And if you’re on the west coast of Florida, stay on your guard!

*…above and beyond the flooding caused by rain, which will be “interesting” enough.

P.S. Here are what this morning’s and this afternoon’s model runs look like, side-by-side:

The more recent model run looks a little less Gulf-oriented… but then again, there are more models, so it’s hard to say what’s really changed. And look at that radar again… hmm.

Donald Rumsfeld today, speaking at the American Legion’s national convention, said that critics of the Bush administration are cowards and equal to those who wanted to appease Hitler (yes he invokes Godwin’s law) back in the 30’s.

Never mind the fact that many critics of the administration do not oppose the goals of the administration, merely its methods for doing so. Rumsfeld’s criticism, and frankly the view that I have seen repeatedly from the right and specifically the Neo-Cons is that there is One True Path to defeating terrorism and that you either support the President 100% or you must be supporting the terrorists. Which is patently absurd. This type of black and white view is so far detached from the very values they claim to be defending it’s almost laughable. Almost, if it weren’t so serious.

(more…)

Spike Lee’s Katrina documentary, featuring yours truly in the opening minutes and the closing credits, will air again tonight at 8:00 PM on HBO — all four “acts” this time. If anyone has the ability to record it and digitize the two brief portions that feature me, so that I can blog the video, I’d greatly appreciate it. :)

P.S. In an effort to prevent another website slowdown/crash after my plug for “irishtrojan.com” airs (which will happen shortly after midnight), this site will briefly go offline around 11:00 or 11:15 to add some RAM to the server.

To view my homepage without any posts relating to the 2006 hurricane season, click here.

From the 11:00 AM discussion:

AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF ERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET. SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT…AND A NEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING…IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION…AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION. THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY…HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

But the headline of the public advisory is:

…OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST…SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED…

Meanwhile, after days of shifting ever rightward, the computer models are now apparently trending leftward: “THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.” Further leftward drift in the track could prevent Ernesto from spending much time at all back over water after hitting Florida, decreasing or eliminating the chances of reintensificaiton before hitting the Carolinas. (For now, though, the NHC says: “AFTER ERNESTO MOVES FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.”

The 8 am update from the National Hurricane Center shows no major changes — maximum sustained winds at 45 mph, central pressure 1007 mb, some strengthening expected today. Rain bands are expected to reach the Florida Keys and southeast Florida this afternoon, with the center making landfall this evening. 5-10 inches of rain is expected in Florida, with 15 inches possible in some places. Dr. Jeff Masters on the projected track:

The latest forecast models are all in excellent agreement, calling for a landfall in the Everglades tonight, a long passage up the spine of Florida, followed by a re-emergence into the Atlantic and possible re-intensification to a Category 1 hurricane before a second landfall in the Carolinas.

Meanwhile, at the Kennedy Space Center, NASA has just made a final decision to move Atlantis to shelter, and the mobile launcher platform carrying Atlantis is about to start its 10-hour trip to the Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA rules say the shuttle should be moved if winds are expected to reach 79 mph. It seems unlikely to me that Ernesto will be that strong at Cape Canaveral, since it would have to intensify and maintain strength as it moves north across a large section of Florida. The NHC wind speed probabilities shows only a 5 percent chance of 64-knot winds (74-mph) at Cocoa Beach. But a NASA announcement says that “KSC can expect winds up to 70-mph by 8 pm on Wednesday,” and the possibility of rapid intensification may have tipped the scales (speculation on my part). Moving Atlantis to shelter means that the shuttle will almost certainly be delayed until late October, unless lighting requirements are relaxed for the next shuttle launch (NASA) or the next Soyuz landing (Russia).

UPDATE: TS Ernesto hasn’t turned into a monster, or (at least) a montor headed for Cape Canaveral, and in light of the improving weather forecast, NASA cancelled the rollback of Atlantis at 2:45 pm. This was almost halfway through the shuttle’s 10-hour trip from the launch pad to the Vehicle Assembly Building. Atlantis is now being hauled back towards the pad. So, if this was planned as a “shuttle rollback”, what do we call this? A “shuttle rollaround”, perhaps. In any case, there’s now a chance for a September shuttle launch.

The FBI says fugitive polygamist Mormon sect leader Warren Steed Jeffs has been arrested in Las Vegas, The Associated Press reports. Visit CNN for the latest.

Well, that didn’t take long. Almost immediately upon emerging back out over water after crossing Cuba, Tropical Storm Ernesto is back up to 45 mph, and more strengthening is expected:

NOW THAT ERNESTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER…AT LEAST SOME STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ABOUT 120 NMI NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT…BUT IS ALSO CREATING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PUNCHING DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER… THE HINDERING EFFECTS OF THAT SYSTEM ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ERNESTO IS PASSING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM. IN 18 HOURS OR SO…THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO…SO THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA. ALSO…AFTER ERNESTO RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD RE-STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND U.S. LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA COASTS.

Here’s the forecast track, which is now (finally!) pretty high-confidence. Landfall should occur around midnight, or thereabouts, in south Florida.

And now, I’m going to go “make landfall” on the bed, having stayed up way too late blogging about Katrina and Ernesto, as well as applying to federal clerkships. :)

One year ago this night, with Hurricane Katrina bearing down on Louisiana and Mississippi, I was blogging like crazy all night long, and getting 800 hits per hour (a rate which would peak at over 3,000 later in the day, leading to a unprecedented daily total of 31,139 — surpassed the following day by the record that still stands, 34,278). If interested, you can view my posts from that fateful night by going to Page 27 of my Katrina category and working backwards. [UPDATE: Or you can go to my August 29, 2005 page, scroll down to the bottom, and then work your way up. That’s much more efficient, actually.]

Particularly compelling, I think, is the 2:25 AM post “Schrodinger’s City,” quoting N.O. Pundit: “There is a Schrodinger’s Cat quality to watching the spinning red ball: does the New Orleans that I know even exist right now, hours before landfall? Surely the buildings are there right now and the people who remained are fine right now. But in a sense, some of those buildings have already fallen and some of those people have already met tragedy. Indeterminacy tonight, determinacy tomorrow.”

In point of fact, “determinacy” was slow to come, and it wasn’t until early Tuesday morning that we got any sense of how bad things were really going to get in the Crescent City. (And some folks still don’t have a good sense of how much worse things almost were, but that’s another issue, to be discussed a bit more after the jump.)

Anyway… if anyone came here expecting some sort of massive, wide-ranging, profound, overarching Katrina anniversary roundup, I’m afraid this post will disappoint. I simply haven’t had time — what with the demands of moving across the country, starting school, living life, and blogging about the current tropical threat — to really collect my thoughts about Hurricane Katrina and come up with some grand anniversary post. Besides, there’s no way I could match the excellent job Margie Kieper is doing with her series on the “Invisible Coastline.”

I’d be remiss, though, if I didn’t link to this post by Paul at Wizbang, which was Instalanched yesterday evening (and which several readers have subsequently pointed me to). Paul posts, and extensively analyzes, a video of the main broken levee which he says proves the fascinating, mind-bending hypothesis that Katrina actually saved lives:

(more…)

My audio clip of Howard M*****f***in’ Dean has been picked up by Snakes On A Blog. Woohoo!

“Enough with Ernesto!” cry my loyal readers (or at least one of them). “Give us something… less lame!” I hear you, I hear you. Well, if the music-related posts earlier this evening aren’t enough, how about this?

I looked up all the preseason polls I could find, and Notre Dame comes out the consensus No. 1 preseason pick in college football. More polls picked the Fighting Irish No. 1 than any other team.

Yet I have to wonder: What is it that makes us so enamored with Notre Dame this year? The Irish went only 9-3 last season and did not beat one ranked team. Their defense – the thing you win championships with – was not very good, and their pass coverage was horrendous. On top of that, the Irish gave up 617 yards in the Fiesta Bowl to Ohio State, the team some think they could face for the national championship. Have we been drinking too much of that Irish Kool-Aid?

Maybe so, but you had better count me in. I’ve taken a front-row seat on that Fighting Irish bandwagon. They are legitimate contenders for the national championship.

Read the whole thing.

It’ll be midnight in a half-hour, at which point there will be only 2 days left until college football season begins! WOOHOO!!! Yes, that’s right, the season starts on Thursday — and I hope you’re all as excited as I am about the season-opening Boston College-Central Michigan tilt at 6:30 PM. To say nothing of Temple-Buffalo at 7:00 (combined record last year: 1-21), and at 7:30, the Southern New England grudge match: Connecticut vs. Rhode Island! I hear they’re calling it the “DINO-RINO Bowl,” in honor of Senators Lieberman and Chafee. :) Hehe… just kidding, Joe!!

“Oh… nevermind.”

As of 11:00 PM, the NHC is no longer forecasting an aborted recurvature by Tropical Storm Ernesto. The left-hand turn has been replaced by a straight line. There goes pillar #1 supporting my shameless speculation about a New York Nightmare Scenario. And pillar #2, the belief that Ernesto’s right-of-the-forecast trend would continue, isn’t looking too good either:

ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…AND THIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. … SOME [FURTHER] SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS [COULD BE] IN THE OFFING.

D’oh! Well, it was a good theory for the 3 hours that it lasted. :)

The other headline out of the 11pm advisory is that it looks increasingly unlikely Ernesto will ever live up to the hype… which is, of course, a good thing:

THE RADAR DATA SHOW A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF ERNESTO…AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR ANDROS APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE…WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR THE ANEMIC CONVECTION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS…LEAVING ERNESTO UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS WOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE CENTER CLEARS THE COASTS…BUT THE UPPER WINDS WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE…AND REPRESENTS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA…THE LIKLIHOOD OF THIS IS DIMINISHING.

The only bad part about Ernesto potentially not living up to the hype is that some folks who don’t understand hurricanes, and the inherent uncertainty involved in forecasting them, will claim that it was patently ridiculous for anyone to ever be afraid of this thing in the first place. Which isn’t true. There was legitimate reason to believe that it could have posed a threat, and legitimate reason to put people on their guard. (Indeed, people should still be on their guard, from Florida to the Carolinas at least. It ain’t over till it’s over!) Sometimes, though, those fickle air molecules blow around in such a way that we luck out. When that happens, we shouldn’t gripe about hype; we should be grateful, and leave it at that.

P.S. Mark Sudduth at Hurricane Track sums things up well:

The way things look now, Ernesto will have a tough time surviving the night. Haiti first and then Cuba have both done a number on the inner core of the cyclone and without that engine running smoothly, it cannot rev up. This spells very good news for people in south Florida and possibly even farther north (the Carolinas). While we don’t want to ignore this storm, it does appear that it will be hard for Ernesto to make any kind of a significant run at becoming a hurricane. I tell you, if it weren’t for the Greater Antilles, the United States and Bahamas would be in bad shape from hurricanes that ran aground in the mountain nations. Still, we will need to be ready just in case Ernesto pulls some last minute intensity increase- better to be prepared than not. … Once clear of Florida, the storm should make its way in to the Carolinas though it is unlikely it will be a hurricane- but you never know.

Meanwhile, Alan Sullivan is looking ahead… way ahead:

I just ran the 16 day GFS model. It’s bad, projecting about six inches of rain for Norfolk this weekend, with Ernesto’s remnant moving slowly up the coast. It also shows another hurricane — a really big one — approaching the East Coast [in two weeks].

This is what he’s talking about:


Proto-Florence? Proto-Gordon? Proto-Helene?

Needless to say, this is ridiculously, indeed redonkulously speculative… sort of like giving a detailed breakdown of the offensive and defensive matchups in your anticipated Ohio State-West Virginia national title game, and a gametime weather forecast to boot. :) Still, it’s fun to look at the pretty colors on the map.

Last but not least, on a somewhat related note, Dr. Jeff Masters gives us an interesting and helpful lesson in what the various computer models are, how they work, etc.

Regular readers may remember a previous post in which I sung the praises of the country band Sugarland, and lamented that they weren’t touring anywhere near Phoenix over the summer. So you can imagine I was delighted to discover that they’re playing this Friday in Milwaukee, which is close enough to South Bend that I can plausibly call it “driving distance.” Yeah, it’s a long way to go for a concert — but hey, it’s a holiday weekend (although, don’t tell the law school schedulers that!), the tickets were only $15 a pop, and the concert features both Sugarland and Brooks & Dunn! So, what the heck? Why not? Maybe we can make a day of it, and tour the Miller Brewery before heading back on Saturday. :) (Seriously, anyone with suggestions about things to do in Milwaukee, leave ‘em in comments!)

Even better than that, though, was my discovery on Friday that Tommy Makem is coming back to Notre Dame! He’s playing at the DPAC on the Friday before the Michigan game. Makem has been a lifelong favorite (of my dad’s, and subsequently, of mine too), and last fall I had an awesome time at a Makem concert at DPAC — but the plan was so last-minute that I was unable to drag Becky along. This time, I’m prepared, and tomorrow I plan to call the box office and order two tickets. I’ve also added the concert to my list of countdown dates at left.

Alas, the timing of the Makem concert means I won’t be able to see the Surreal McCoys in their return visit to South Bend, at Club 22/JT’s Sports Bar and Grill that same night (opening act from 7-10, McCoys “to follow”). And another “alas” for the timing of the Barra MacNeils’ visit to Chicago the next day, which conflicts directly with the ND-Michigan game. (The concert is from 1:50 to ~3:00 EDT, the game starts at 3:30 EDT, and it takes 2 hours, on a non-football day, to get from Chicago to South Bend.) I’m really bummed about that, since the Barras — unlike my other favorite Maritime Canadian band, Great Big Sea — so rarely tour in the States. But I ain’t missing the Michigan game!!

Still, I’m really excited about Sugarland, Brooks & Dunn and Makem. It’s going to be a fun few weeks of music!