Mexico election update:

Mexico’s top electoral court on Saturday rejected a full recount in the disputed presidential election, ordering a partial count instead, angering leftist protesters camped in the capital demanding a new vote-by-vote tally over their fraud allegations.

Dozens of supporters of candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador pushed against the gate of the Federal Electoral Tribunal as its session ended, chanting: “If there is no solution, there will be a revolution!” One forced his way through, waving a Mexican flag and yelling “Bandits!”

In Mexico City’s central plaza, where thousands of protesters have been camped out for a week demanding a new count of the July 2 election, chants of “vote-by-vote” drowned out the judges’ statements as the session was broadcast live on a large TV screen.

“This is very bad. It’s a total fraud,” said Edelbira Cervantes, a 46-year-old government employee. “The people will solve this problem in their own way.” …

[T]he electoral court voted unanimously to order a partial recount of nearly 12,000 polling places — about 9 percent of the more than 130,000 nationwide — and called for electoral judges to oversee the process. Lopez Obrador’s representatives walked out of the session in protest.

The recount will begin Wednesday and was expected to last five days.

The United States and France agree a draft U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at ending the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, news agencies report. CNN working to confirm. Visit CNN for the latest.

A Japanese supernatural martial arts epic complete with a kitsune (trickster fox spirit), multiple oni (demons) and even some tengu (goblins). Maybe a nekomata (necromancer cat) for good measure.

Knight Rider vs. Dukes of Hazzard.

Farscape: The Nebari Resistance (as long as Stark is in it).

Sports Night: The Movie

And finally, a movie I would not pay to see:

SciFi Original’s Kitsune: Picking a creature from the Encyclopedia Mythica at random, SciFi Channel presents seven shallow, unlikeable characters as they face a bad CGI fox creature inside the barest of plots with several misinterpretations of the original Japanese legend.

ATTENTION FELLOW NOTRE DAME STUDENTS!!!

My football ticket trading situation has changed somewhat since my last post on the topic, so I thought I’d post an update and see if I get any bites this time.

WHAT I NEED:
• 2 exchanged/upgraded student-section tickets to either Penn State or Michigan
• 2 exchanged/upgraded student-section tickets to any other home game except Stanford

WHAT I HAVE TO OFFER:
• 2 exchanged/upgraded student-section tickets to Stanford (I have two tickets for each game, mine and Becky’s)
• 2 non-student-section tickets to Army
• 2 non-student-section tickets to North Carolina
• Alternatively, face value for any of the tickets I need (that’s 1/7 of the total ticket booklet price plus the exchange/upgrade fee)
• I may also be willing to entertain trade offers that involve one or both of my student-section tickets to Purdue, North Carolina or Army, but it will depend on what you’re offering.

Please e-mail me at bloy [at] nd.edu if you’re potentially interested in trading any student tickets except Stanford for any of the tickets I just mentioned! (The Penn State or Michigan tickets are the most urgently needed, so trade offers involving those tickets will be favored.)

P.S. Standard disclaimer: I’m not scalping student tickets. Scalping is bad, bad, bad. I’m purely doing ticket trades… and/or paying face value, if that’s what floats your boat. My goal is simply to make sure that I get the tickets I need, and you get the tickets you need. This is not about profit, it’s about packing the stadium with enthusiastic Domers and friends-of-Domers. GO IRISH! :)

USC and Notre Dame are tied for #3 in the preseason USA Today poll. Sweet. Ohio State is #1 and Texas is #2.

Israeli police confirm two or three rockets hit the Hadera area — furthest point yet south of the Lebanese border. Initial reports indicate no casualties. Visit CNN for the latest.

“These are the two monsters we’ve been hunting,” said Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, after police announced the arrest of two suspects in the city’s “Serial Shooter” case. Visit CNN for the latest.

Hey, I can make an exception to the "no blogging about work" rule when it involves a teddy bear, right? :)

As foreshadowed early this morning, Tropical Storm Chris has officially weakened to a tropical depression as of 8:00 AM EDT today. However, the 11:00 AM discussion suggests there may yet be another comeback in this puppy:

CHRIS REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX. HOWEVER…IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR CHRIS TO RESTRENGHTEN BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS IN THIS POSSIBILITY. THEREAFTER…THE FORECAST MAINTAINS CHRIS AS MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INDICATE THAT IF CHRIS SURVIVES THE NEXT DAY OR SO…WHICH IT MAY NOT…IT MIGHT ENTER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN BOTH OF THESE MODELS.

The Houston Chronicle’s SciGuy, who wrote on Wednesday that Chris reaching the Gulf of Mexico would be “a bad thing indeed” because of the bathtub-like water and favorable atmospheric conditions there, is still concerned:

The storm is forecast to move ashore Cuba on Saturday, and with any luck it will completely dissipate.

But the greater likelihood is that the depression will emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday as a weak system. At that time it will bear watching. Why? Because the wind shear forecast calls for a fairly calm atmosphere in which the storm can re-organize.

Fortunately Chris (or its remnants) is expected to move quickly, nearing land by the middle of next week. …

The reasons I outlined earlier that we should be concerned about any system in the Gulf remain, but my best guess is that Chris becomes a nice, rain-bringing tropical storm for south Texas, which one reader suggested to me nearly a week ago is exactly what that region needs.

Houston isn’t out of the woods yet, however, and the position, intensity and speed of Chris will have to be closely watched on Sunday or Monday if and when the system enters the Gulf of Mexico.

UPDATE: I remain slightly concerned about Chris especially in light of newly released intensity forecasts, which are now coming into better agreement. It’s worth noting that these models are notoriously unreliable, but they’re the best we’ve got, and they may be trying to tell us something. I’m also concerned when I look at this map of the Gulf’s heat potential, especially in the waters immediately after Chris exits Cuba.

If the storm remains even very moderately organized, there certainly will be ample fuel for it in the Gulf. All the more reason, then, to hope that wind shear and Cuba rip it apart.

Charles Fenwick, however, says:

Given the situation, I don’t think Chris will be able to maintain his close circulation throughout the day. The next reconnaisance plane flies in at around 2 PM and that may be the only thing of note for the first part of the mission. If the plane were to fail to find a closed circulation, then the storm would be closed out in the 5 PM advisory package.

Of course, even being “closed out” doesn’t necessarily mean the threat is entirely over. Tropical Depression 10 was “closed out” on August 14, 2005, only to re-emerge nine days later as Tropical Depression 12 — a little storm that ultimately earned the name Katrina, and a tragic place in American history.

Still, the more Chris weakens now, the less likely he is to pose a problem later, obviously. So Gulf Coast residents should, as the SciGuy says, be rooting for dissipation.

The “Serial Shooter,” linked to 36 shootings of humans and animals throughout the Phoenix Valley — killing 5 people and injuring 17 — has reportedly been arrested. Two arrests have been made here, and “one is the suspected shooter, the other the driver,” according to the AZ Central homepage.

The Serial Shooter is one of two serial killers currently stalking the area. The other is known as the Baseline Killer (or Baseline Rapist).

As of 5:00 AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center is sounding less bullish about Tropical Storm Chris than it did in the previous update. “TENACIOUS CHRIS BARELY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH” is the headline of the public advisory, and the discussion states:

CHRIS HAS MANAGED TO REMAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AND FOUND A 53 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND. HOWEVER…THE WIND WAS MEASURED IN A THUNDERSTORM WHICH IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY. OVERALL THE AIRCRAFT HAS ONLY MEASURED 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH THESE WINDS DO NOT CURRENTLY SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM…CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT AND CLOSE TO THE CENTER…SO THE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. HOWEVER…CHRIS COULD EASILY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.

At the Volokh Conspiracy, David Bernstein ponders the uniqueness — or lack thereof — of Israel’s existence as a “Jewish state.”

Hartford Courant columnist and Political Wire contributor Kevin Rennie writes that Lieberman is doomed, doomed:

The Lieberman campaign in the towns, where the race is fought at the end, is in a full-scale retreat that rivals the French west of the Ardennes. The Washington generals who came in to inspect, organize and deploy the troops with nods and waves have sent word back to Washington that all is lost. The news has shaken cozy beltway types who did not think Connecticut had enough barbarians to defeat one of their favorites. The staff of Meet the Press doesn’t identify voters and make sure they get to the polls, so Lieberman is a lonely figure at home.

State Democratic leaders are now trying to figure out how to dissuade Lieberman from carrying on as an independent. The first formal shot should come at a unity press conference on Wednesday. If he wins the night before, Lamont will find himself surrounded by dozens of Democratic leaders now pledged to Lieberman.

No one can see how Lieberman will save himself from a stunning rout on Tuesday and they’ve stopped trying to figure it out.

Lefty blogger Atrios isn’t sold on Rennie’s analysis: “I think Kevin Rennie’s just writing liberal porn to attract hits at this point. There’s nothing wrong with enjoying ourselves - we don’t get many chances - but aside from the entertainment value it all means nothing until we get the results on Tuesday.” Kos isn’t sure.

Meanwhile, Jeff Greenfield makes an important point: “Although polls suggest Lieberman could win in November running as an independent, wouldn’t that course be a lot harder for him to follow if he loses the primary in a landslide?” Yes, it would.

RedState contributor “AcademicElephant” is skeptical of the hype: “I think Ned Lamont is the Howard Dean of the 2006 election,” he says, and predicts a Lieberman victory on Tuesday. I’d like to believe that, but I’m not sure I can so easily disregard a 13-point lead in the polls — to say nothing of my dad’s prediction of a 16-point Lamont win.

I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m not optimistic. And in my pessimistic state, I totally agree with this comment by “Traveler,” a blog reader from Indiana:

Kos and company better enjoy this victory, because it may well come at the price of losing the war. It seems clear to me as a Hoosier Independent (in a state where the Democrats look a lot more like Joe Lieberman than Ned Lamont) that if the Democratic party can’t find room for Lieberman…it sure is no place for a guy like me.

As much as I may like an Evan Bayh or Mark Warner, if the Democrats can’t even support a statesman like Lieberman for Senate, I can’t imagine turning over our security and my life to anyone beholden to Markos Moulitsas’s delusional view of the world.

Amen.

I’ll have a lot more to say on this issue if Lamont wins, but for now, I’ll just say this: the Democratic Party and I have been drifting toward a divorce for some time now, and if Joe Lieberman is shown the door, I may just walk out too.

Two days ago, when Tropical Storm Chris formed despite being surrounded by seemingly hostile conditions, the Houston Chronicle’s SciGuy wrote:

This suggests the storm may be a “survivor,” if you’ll permit me to anthropomorphize it.

Well, Chris is again looking like a “survivor” tonight. Just when it seemed imminent that he’d weaken to a tropical depression or dissipate entirely, Chris is attempting a comeback. You can see the thunderstorms firing up near the circulation center on the satellite loop here. From the 11:00 PM EDT NHC discussion:

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CHRIS TONIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER FULLY EXPOSED. IN ADDITION…THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT DURING ITS FINAL PASSES THROUGH THE STORM. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE STORM APPROACHING THE COL BETWEEN A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS…ONE OVER FLORIDA AND THE OTHER A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. IF CHRIS REMAINS IN THE COL AREA… SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS ALLOW CHRIS TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS ALSO INDICATES THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE NEARING CUBA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

If you’re wondering what the heck a “col” is, it’s basically an area of neutral pressure, if you will, either in between two high-pressure areas or in between two low-pressure areas. At least, that’s my understanding. It’s basically the same concept as the more common definition “a pass between mountain peaks,” except with weather phenomena instead. In this case, we’re talking about a col between two troughs of upper-level low pressure — a relatively shear-free area that is somewhat more favorable for tropical development, though not as favorable as if Chris were directly under an upper-level high (the tropical cyclone’s ideal). Margie Kieper has a rather amusing diagram of the phenomenon. Heh.

Anyway, there’s also this from the NHC discussion: “IF THE STORM SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH CUBA…IT MIGHT FIND A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DURING THAT PERIOD.” Indeed. As noted previously, Chris in the Gulf of Mexico would be a bad thing.

 
[UPDATE, 8/22/06: For the latest, up-to-date commentary on Spike Lee’s film — which I was in — please visit my homepage or my Katrina category.]
 
 
The New York Times has a lengthy article about Spike Lee’s upcoming Katrina movie. Although he interviewed me for the film, I have no idea whether I’ll actually be in it, and to be honest, if I were going to tell the story that he’s trying to tell in four hours, I don’t know that I’d include me. But we shall see.

Meanwhile, Newsbusters is not impressed with the Times’s article.