As of the 11am advisory, Ernesto has sustained winds of up to nearly 50 MPH. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman islands, and Jamaica is under a Tropical Storm warning. It still seems likely that Ernesto could be become a major hurricane once he gets past Jamaica. I’ve also noticed that the center of the 5-Day Cone seems to get closer and closer to New Orleans. Of course, Ernesto could still get killed off by wind shear, and also, it’s a cone, not a line. Just saying that I’m starting to get a bit nervous for the Gulf Coast, and New Orleans especially.
Along the lines of “it’s a cone, not a line”, I’ve been making myslef look more at the NHC’s “Hurricane Wind Speed Probability” and “Tropical Storem Wind Speed Probability” maps rather than the “Warnings and 5-Day Cone” because it seems that better summarizes the actual state of knowledge about the storm given the uncertainties, and helps fight against the temptation to look at “the line”.
As of now, looking at THOSE maps, None of the US coast has more than a 5% chance of hurricane force winds over the next five days (although that will probably change at the next advisory). As for tropical storm force winds, looks Like New Orleans has about a 20% chance of tropical force storm winds within the next 5 days (maybe a little less), but Key West is up around 35% so is actually at even more risk at the moment of seeing effects from this storm. And Miami is about the same level of risk as NO as well.
Now, of course these risk levels change and go up and down with each update, and if the “line” is right then the places off to the side will go down in risk and the places closer to the line will go up in risk… but the risk bands should be trying to account for the odds of the storm taking a turn, so should really be a better representation of where is really at risk given what the NHC knows at a given time.
I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts at looking at the storms this way rather than looking at the cone view…
Thanks for asking the question. I don’t know much about hurricanes, but I had a similar question today, though in a slightly different direction.
From the tropical storm wind speed probabilities, it looks like NOLA has about a 25% chance of getting socked with this storm, which ostensibly by its forecast looks worse than Katrina (on paper).
That seems pretty bad, and maybe bad enough that we should be hearing from the mayor - today. (That would assume he was a competent mayor).
However, I was focusing on the ‘dispersion of probability’ of tropical storm winds, particularly the ability of New Orleans to handle a strike nearby on the coast.
For example, assume Ernesto makes it to about category 3 (no eyewall replacement cycle as it hits land?).
The question (finally):
What range of landing spots would be devastating to New Orleans?
In other words, given that the levees are probably not fixed, social services are a fraction of what they were, social networks have been spread to the four winds, how challenging would it be for New Orleans to handle a Category 3 that hits, for example, Lafayette?
Or Port Arthur?
Under normal circumstances, you might say: no big deal.
Is it a big deal one year after the chaos of Katrina?
And if so:
What are the odds of a disastrous event given the current landscape?
It would seem to be at least 25%, given the tropical storm map that Samuel pointed out.
But the ‘real’ answer is that it must be something much higher, given the probable challenge of dealing with any Cat 3 coming ashore within a few hundred miles of the city.
would he know where the mayor is? Your taking your frustrations out on this guy for no reason. he was in the movie spike lee made about new orleans i am sure he is aware of the hardships new orleans has been facing a year later.
Crap, we’re not going to have to go through another “Get the hell out of dodge situation”, are we?
We just went through this!
Well, if it happens again, at least we can remember the old saying about being once bitten and twice shy. Any evacuation orders in NOLA are going to be taken quite seriously this time around. At least, one would hope.
Soooo . . . lets hope it hits somewhere without people, and at a weak category.
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August 26th, 2006 at 12:51:28 pm
Along the lines of “it’s a cone, not a line”, I’ve been making myslef look more at the NHC’s “Hurricane Wind Speed Probability” and “Tropical Storem Wind Speed Probability” maps rather than the “Warnings and 5-Day Cone” because it seems that better summarizes the actual state of knowledge about the storm given the uncertainties, and helps fight against the temptation to look at “the line”.
As of now, looking at THOSE maps, None of the US coast has more than a 5% chance of hurricane force winds over the next five days (although that will probably change at the next advisory). As for tropical storm force winds, looks Like New Orleans has about a 20% chance of tropical force storm winds within the next 5 days (maybe a little less), but Key West is up around 35% so is actually at even more risk at the moment of seeing effects from this storm. And Miami is about the same level of risk as NO as well.
Now, of course these risk levels change and go up and down with each update, and if the “line” is right then the places off to the side will go down in risk and the places closer to the line will go up in risk… but the risk bands should be trying to account for the odds of the storm taking a turn, so should really be a better representation of where is really at risk given what the NHC knows at a given time.
I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts at looking at the storms this way rather than looking at the cone view…
August 26th, 2006 at 1:54:39 pm
Samuel -
Thanks for asking the question. I don’t know much about hurricanes, but I had a similar question today, though in a slightly different direction.
From the tropical storm wind speed probabilities, it looks like NOLA has about a 25% chance of getting socked with this storm, which ostensibly by its forecast looks worse than Katrina (on paper).
That seems pretty bad, and maybe bad enough that we should be hearing from the mayor - today. (That would assume he was a competent mayor).
However, I was focusing on the ‘dispersion of probability’ of tropical storm winds, particularly the ability of New Orleans to handle a strike nearby on the coast.
For example, assume Ernesto makes it to about category 3 (no eyewall replacement cycle as it hits land?).
The question (finally):
What range of landing spots would be devastating to New Orleans?
In other words, given that the levees are probably not fixed, social services are a fraction of what they were, social networks have been spread to the four winds, how challenging would it be for New Orleans to handle a Category 3 that hits, for example, Lafayette?
Or Port Arthur?
Under normal circumstances, you might say: no big deal.
Is it a big deal one year after the chaos of Katrina?
And if so:
What are the odds of a disastrous event given the current landscape?
It would seem to be at least 25%, given the tropical storm map that Samuel pointed out.
But the ‘real’ answer is that it must be something much higher, given the probable challenge of dealing with any Cat 3 coming ashore within a few hundred miles of the city.
Right?
Am I missing something?
Where’s the mayor?
August 26th, 2006 at 4:05:24 pm
would he know where the mayor is? Your taking your frustrations out on this guy for no reason. he was in the movie spike lee made about new orleans i am sure he is aware of the hardships new orleans has been facing a year later.
August 26th, 2006 at 6:48:02 pm
Crap, we’re not going to have to go through another “Get the hell out of dodge situation”, are we?
We just went through this!
Well, if it happens again, at least we can remember the old saying about being once bitten and twice shy. Any evacuation orders in NOLA are going to be taken quite seriously this time around. At least, one would hope.
Soooo . . . lets hope it hits somewhere without people, and at a weak category.