The 8 am update from the National Hurricane Center shows no major changes — maximum sustained winds at 45 mph, central pressure 1007 mb, some strengthening expected today. Rain bands are expected to reach the Florida Keys and southeast Florida this afternoon, with the center making landfall this evening. 5-10 inches of rain is expected in Florida, with 15 inches possible in some places. Dr. Jeff Masters on the projected track:

The latest forecast models are all in excellent agreement, calling for a landfall in the Everglades tonight, a long passage up the spine of Florida, followed by a re-emergence into the Atlantic and possible re-intensification to a Category 1 hurricane before a second landfall in the Carolinas.

Meanwhile, at the Kennedy Space Center, NASA has just made a final decision to move Atlantis to shelter, and the mobile launcher platform carrying Atlantis is about to start its 10-hour trip to the Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA rules say the shuttle should be moved if winds are expected to reach 79 mph. It seems unlikely to me that Ernesto will be that strong at Cape Canaveral, since it would have to intensify and maintain strength as it moves north across a large section of Florida. The NHC wind speed probabilities shows only a 5 percent chance of 64-knot winds (74-mph) at Cocoa Beach. But a NASA announcement says that “KSC can expect winds up to 70-mph by 8 pm on Wednesday,” and the possibility of rapid intensification may have tipped the scales (speculation on my part). Moving Atlantis to shelter means that the shuttle will almost certainly be delayed until late October, unless lighting requirements are relaxed for the next shuttle launch (NASA) or the next Soyuz landing (Russia).

UPDATE: TS Ernesto hasn’t turned into a monster, or (at least) a montor headed for Cape Canaveral, and in light of the improving weather forecast, NASA cancelled the rollback of Atlantis at 2:45 pm. This was almost halfway through the shuttle’s 10-hour trip from the launch pad to the Vehicle Assembly Building. Atlantis is now being hauled back towards the pad. So, if this was planned as a “shuttle rollback”, what do we call this? A “shuttle rollaround”, perhaps. In any case, there’s now a chance for a September shuttle launch.