From the 11:00 AM discussion:

AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF ERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET. SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT…AND A NEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING…IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION…AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION. THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY…HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

But the headline of the public advisory is:

…OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST…SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED…

Meanwhile, after days of shifting ever rightward, the computer models are now apparently trending leftward: “THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.” Further leftward drift in the track could prevent Ernesto from spending much time at all back over water after hitting Florida, decreasing or eliminating the chances of reintensificaiton before hitting the Carolinas. (For now, though, the NHC says: “AFTER ERNESTO MOVES FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.”