When I do my laundry, I always match my socks. I don’t organize them in my sock drawer by color or anything like that, but I do match them. Brendan always makes fun of me for my matchmaking tendencies, but I’m convinced I’m in the majority. So mwahaha. I’m airing our clean laundry and all of you can prove me right. Do you match your socks too?

Tropical Storm Ernesto has made landfall near Key Largo:


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There is no evidence yet — none that I can see, anyway — of the sharp right-hand turn that the NHC is expecting. Hmm. [UPDATE: But maybe I’m focusing too much on the narrowest circulation center I can spot? Looking more broadly at the area of relative calm at the center of the storm — the “quasi-eye,” if you will — it seems to be moving northwest. But looking at the pinpoint circulation center, it seems to be moving WNW, maybe even wobbling toward due west in the last few frames. Latest radar loop here.]

Anyway, Mark Sudduth at Hurricane Track writes: “Needless to say, [Ernesto’s] impacts were quite minimal here in south Florida and after two seasons of relentless hurricanes, I am sure people are just fine with what happened.”

UPDATE, 12:45 AM: In the 11:00 PM discussion, the NHC said:

AN AIR FORCE FIX AND CENTER DROPSONDE INDICATE ERNESTO HAS NOT QUITE MADE LANDFALL. IN FACT…THE CENTER HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS

A brief stall like that can sometimes indicate that a change in direction is imminent — and, sure enough, in the last few radar frames, it looks to my untrained eye like Ernesto is finally moving ashore for real, and heading in a more northerly direction.

UPDATE, 1:22 AM: Yup. Definitely on shore now.


Again, please be patient; it may take the animation a few moments to load.

The NHC was exactly right, in its forecasts throughout the day today, about the timing of this important right-hand turn. Kudos to Max Mayfield & co.

Once again: Welcome, HBO viewers! Viewers of tonight’s Spike Lee documentary who aren’t familiar with my blog — and thus don’t understand why the heck I, of all people, was in the movie — may want to read this post for a bit of background information.

P.S. To read my reactions to the movie, check out these posts:
Thoughts on Spike Lee’s movie so far
What Spike Lee didn’t tell us
Fair and balanced — not

Reportedly, Matt Leinart is going to be a dad. (Hat tip: Jessica Cowans.) More here.

No, it’s not Paris Hilton’s, thank God — and I say that for the sake of Leinart, the baby and all humanity. :) Rather, it’s his USC (ex-?)girlfriend, and Women of Troy basketball player, Brynn Cameron’s. They’re expecting a baby boy.

Cameron is reportedly due in November, which means… hmm… that’s a little too late to be the result of a post-Rose Bowl pity f**k, and a little too early to be the result of excessive post-NFL Draft celebration (besides, Leinart was reportedly canoodling with Paris by then). A Spring Break farewell fling, perhaps? [UPDATE: This theory is actually quite plausible! Arash wrote in April that Leinart and Cameron “broke up…last month.”]

Well anyway, even if Leinart and Cameron don’t end up together, at least we know the Arizona Cardinals QB shouldn’t have any trouble making his child-support payments!

Hurricane watch lifted for all of Florida, but remains in effect for coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas, National Hurricane Center Says. Visit CNN for the latest.

Last week, I sent the local National Weather Service office a link to my Michigan City wind damage photos, which I described as a possible “smoking gun” proving that a tornado hit the area. I just got a reply from an NWS forecaster, who thanked me for the photos but begged to differ with my conclusion, basically concluding that lexicon was right. I quote from the forecaster’s e-mail:

Thanks for your time and energy in bringing this to our attention. We are always looking for photos and video of weather related damage and anything else weather related.

As a matter of fact, while we were on our damage survey, we did see the bleachers. They were rolled several times.

In other surveys I have done over the last dozen years in Indiana, Michigan and Ohio…I have seen many rolled into pretzels just like this set. The funny thing is, these type bleachers tend to get airborne in 90 to 100 mph winds…whether they are associated with a tornado or with damaging straight line winds.

One thing is for sure…the Michigan City to Westville areas experienced a horrific wind storm. This storm is a rarity. One the area will likely not see again in a lifetime (I hope!). Our job, at the NWS, now is to decide what caused the damage as best as humanly possible. You know, we had a Tornado Warning out for the storm…so us classifying it as wind damage gives us a miss on our statistics. This negatively effects our funding and reputation. Frankly, as a scientist, I don’t care about the verification statistics when we are doing damage surveys…we are trying to determine what caused the damage based on the facts and our knowledge.

When determining what caused wind damage we look at many things. We are looking for damage that converges (is a result of suction) or that which occurred with outflow (winds blowing out of the thunderstorm). To determine this we interview eye witnesses, meticulously examine surface at the damage, look at the damage from aircraft, also we review the radar signatures and examine the atmosphere at the time. We attempt to put all the clues together, like a crime scene, and figure out what happened.

All the clues continue to point to a widespread “straight line” wind event. This event was extremely uncommon and best relate it to a hurricane. There was 30 miles by 30 miles damage. The biggest tornado on record is near a mile wide…therefore all the damage that occurred could not have been caused by “a” tornado. There could have been small tornadoes embedded in the hurricane type winds, but we could not find sufficient evidence to substantiate them. By the way, we are still looking for any other damage information we can get, including still pictures and movies of the storm. (I would love to be able to give us a hit on the Tornado Warning!)

Interesting, very interesting.

FAA acknowledges it violated staffing policies with only one air traffic controller on duty at airport when Comair jet crashed Sunday, killing 49 people. Visit CNN for the latest.

Georgia and Carolina coasts are under hurricane watch because of Tropical Storm Ernesto, National Hurricane Center announces. Visit CNN for the latest.

[UPDATE/CORRECTION, 4:55 PM: It’s time for another “Oh…nevermind” moment. From the 5:00 PM discussion:

DURING THE DAY…ERNESTO BECAME SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED-LOOKING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. RECENTLY…HOWEVER…THE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING ON THE IMAGERY. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED…AND THE FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON WAS ROUGHLY COMMENSURATE WITH THE TYPICAL SEMI-DIURNAL PRESSURE CHANGE. IN OTHER WORDS…ERNESTO IS NOT STRENGTHENING.

Hey, I can’t always be right! :) The NHC also does not appear to be sold on the heading-toward-the-Gulf theory.]

***ORIGINAL POST***

Adam Moyer at The Storm Track says Ernesto is strengthening:

The SFMR aboard the NOAA42 P-3 research aircraft has found surface winds of 55 kts to the east of the center of circulation. Ernesto is becoming much better organized by the hour.

But the big story is that some computer models are taking Ernesto west of the present NHC forecast track, through the Keys and toward the Florida west coast, which could spell trouble because it would give the storm time to strengthen as it rakes the coastline en route to Tampa Bay. Yikes! And the radar loop kinda makes it look like that’s the direction it’s headed:


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Here’s what Moyer says:

The model forecasts are bimodal this morning. The global models (e.g. GFS, UKMET, Canadian, etc.) are forecasting a landfall early tomorrow morning in the Florida Keys. However, the statistical-dynamical (S-D) models (e.g. the BAMs, LBAR, etc.) are forecasting a landfall tomorrow night near or south of Tampa. Ordinarily, I would dismiss the S-D models as being out to lunch. Here, though, is where the S-D models shine. When a storm is poorly organized and not initialized well in the global models, as Ernesto is right now, the S-D models often have as good, if not better forecasts for a tropical storm. Admittedly, this particular model run has me quite confused.

he intensity forecast is where things get really sticky. If the global models are right, Ernesto will not have much time to intensify and would come ashore on the Keys as moderate to strong tropical storm, since Ernesto is just now starting to reorganize itself. However, if the S-D models are right about the track, Ernesto will have plenty of time to get its act together. That would be bad news for the Gulf coast of Florida. Should the S-D models be correct and Ernesto has 36 hours to spend over the open water, the dreaded rapid intensification is back in the picture again. Currently, the SHIPS forecast has a probability of 32% for rapid intensification. While not high, it is also not insignificant. Should rapid intensification occur, Ernesto could easily be a Category 2 hurricane or higher at landfall on the Gulf coast. At the moment, the intensity models are all forecasting Ernesto to be a strong tropical storm as it makes landfall in the Keys (Figure 4). Obviously, in the models, the S-D solution has not been accounted for. Should the global models’ track be correct, the intensity forecast is more or less correct. If not, Ernesto has the possibility of becoming a major event for the Gulf coast.

This could get interesting* yet. Stay tuned! And if you’re on the west coast of Florida, stay on your guard!

*…above and beyond the flooding caused by rain, which will be “interesting” enough.

P.S. Here are what this morning’s and this afternoon’s model runs look like, side-by-side:

The more recent model run looks a little less Gulf-oriented… but then again, there are more models, so it’s hard to say what’s really changed. And look at that radar again… hmm.

Donald Rumsfeld today, speaking at the American Legion’s national convention, said that critics of the Bush administration are cowards and equal to those who wanted to appease Hitler (yes he invokes Godwin’s law) back in the 30’s.

Never mind the fact that many critics of the administration do not oppose the goals of the administration, merely its methods for doing so. Rumsfeld’s criticism, and frankly the view that I have seen repeatedly from the right and specifically the Neo-Cons is that there is One True Path to defeating terrorism and that you either support the President 100% or you must be supporting the terrorists. Which is patently absurd. This type of black and white view is so far detached from the very values they claim to be defending it’s almost laughable. Almost, if it weren’t so serious.

(more…)

Spike Lee’s Katrina documentary, featuring yours truly in the opening minutes and the closing credits, will air again tonight at 8:00 PM on HBO — all four “acts” this time. If anyone has the ability to record it and digitize the two brief portions that feature me, so that I can blog the video, I’d greatly appreciate it. :)

P.S. In an effort to prevent another website slowdown/crash after my plug for “irishtrojan.com” airs (which will happen shortly after midnight), this site will briefly go offline around 11:00 or 11:15 to add some RAM to the server.

To view my homepage without any posts relating to the 2006 hurricane season, click here.

From the 11:00 AM discussion:

AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF ERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET. SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT…AND A NEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING…IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION…AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION. THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY…HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

But the headline of the public advisory is:

…OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST…SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED…

Meanwhile, after days of shifting ever rightward, the computer models are now apparently trending leftward: “THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME…AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.” Further leftward drift in the track could prevent Ernesto from spending much time at all back over water after hitting Florida, decreasing or eliminating the chances of reintensificaiton before hitting the Carolinas. (For now, though, the NHC says: “AFTER ERNESTO MOVES FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.”

The 8 am update from the National Hurricane Center shows no major changes — maximum sustained winds at 45 mph, central pressure 1007 mb, some strengthening expected today. Rain bands are expected to reach the Florida Keys and southeast Florida this afternoon, with the center making landfall this evening. 5-10 inches of rain is expected in Florida, with 15 inches possible in some places. Dr. Jeff Masters on the projected track:

The latest forecast models are all in excellent agreement, calling for a landfall in the Everglades tonight, a long passage up the spine of Florida, followed by a re-emergence into the Atlantic and possible re-intensification to a Category 1 hurricane before a second landfall in the Carolinas.

Meanwhile, at the Kennedy Space Center, NASA has just made a final decision to move Atlantis to shelter, and the mobile launcher platform carrying Atlantis is about to start its 10-hour trip to the Vehicle Assembly Building. NASA rules say the shuttle should be moved if winds are expected to reach 79 mph. It seems unlikely to me that Ernesto will be that strong at Cape Canaveral, since it would have to intensify and maintain strength as it moves north across a large section of Florida. The NHC wind speed probabilities shows only a 5 percent chance of 64-knot winds (74-mph) at Cocoa Beach. But a NASA announcement says that “KSC can expect winds up to 70-mph by 8 pm on Wednesday,” and the possibility of rapid intensification may have tipped the scales (speculation on my part). Moving Atlantis to shelter means that the shuttle will almost certainly be delayed until late October, unless lighting requirements are relaxed for the next shuttle launch (NASA) or the next Soyuz landing (Russia).

UPDATE: TS Ernesto hasn’t turned into a monster, or (at least) a montor headed for Cape Canaveral, and in light of the improving weather forecast, NASA cancelled the rollback of Atlantis at 2:45 pm. This was almost halfway through the shuttle’s 10-hour trip from the launch pad to the Vehicle Assembly Building. Atlantis is now being hauled back towards the pad. So, if this was planned as a “shuttle rollback”, what do we call this? A “shuttle rollaround”, perhaps. In any case, there’s now a chance for a September shuttle launch.

The FBI says fugitive polygamist Mormon sect leader Warren Steed Jeffs has been arrested in Las Vegas, The Associated Press reports. Visit CNN for the latest.