The Crises in Israfghyianonanaq are pretty much the opposite of funny, but here’s something to laugh about: Fox News is reporting that five Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip accidentally blew themselves up while trying to launch a rocket at Israel. Heh. Dumbasses.

I am inclined to agree with The New Republic’s take (free subscription required) on the Middle East situation. Money quote: “The ascendancy of Ahmadinejad’s perfidious Iran is a spectacular problem for the United States, and a spectacular challenge. … If we succeed in Iraq (a considerable if) and fail in Iran, we will have failed in the Middle East. Unfortunately, it is not clear that President Bush grasps this.”

Also, with regard to the Israel-Hezbollah war: “It would be heartless not to recoil against the civilian casualties that this war is claiming, but it would be mindless not to affirm the rightness of this struggle against the madmen and their rockets.”

Full text after the jump.

(more…)

Hat tip: Bob Lutts, CT Republican Guru :)

Sadly but Unsurprisingly:

Sen. Joe Lieberman, under fire from activists in his own party, has lost ground to his challenger and is narrowly trailing him for the first time in their race for the Democratic nomination, a new poll released Thursday shows.

Businessman Ned Lamont had support from 51 percent and Lieberman from 47 percent of likely Democratic voters in the latest Quinnipiac University poll - a slight Lamont lead given the survey’s sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Lieberman had led in a Quinnipiac poll last month, 55 percent to 40 percent.

When Saint Joe announced his November Fallback petition on July 3 (subsequently settling on the excellent ballot designation Connecticut for Lieberman :), I immediately knew that he Knew that This Shift was underway. [I just now Typoed that word “Shift” :> ~ honestly, I Did ~ but have restored the Freudianly-omitted consonant. :] For the Feedback from the Phonebanks is always way Ahead of the intermittent public Polls, that Previous one having been published on longago June 8.

Of course the 51-47 with its 4-point error-margin is, as stated, among Likely Democratic Voters, not among All Democrats. Per past primary precedent (pardon :) the truly Likely Democratic Voters (i.e. those who Will in fact Vote, not just lie to a Pollster about their civicmindedness :) comprise around 20-25% of All Democrats. Neither the AP story nor (unless I Missed it, You go look) the Poll report itself sets forth the numbers for All Democrats. I Infer, from Several clues, that Quinnipiac this time polled ONLY the self-described Likelies on the various Dem-primaries-related Questions, winnowing out the Lesslikelies from those Q’s as soon as they ID’ed themselves as such.

But the June 8 poll DID report on the preference of All Dems as well as the subset of Likelies, and this showed significantly stronger Support for Joe (and Lessy for Neddy :) among the All-D’s than among the Why-Sure-I’ll-Vote- D’s. / And in the New poll, a Close scrutiny of (scroll Way down) Tables 3, 10, 11, 15 and 22 reveals corroborating, albeit sometimes indirect, evidence that selfdescribed DemLikelies continue to be notably more Negative toward Lieberman than the Dems Overall.

All of which Goes to Show that Joe is correct in saying that if he can just generate a Really Big Turnout at this Dem primary ~ Way bigger than the paltry Usual & big enough to be a Truly representative Sample of the party ~ then he will Still Win.

BUT: even if Not, I’ve got Good News. / Nono, not about my Car Insurance :).

The new poll suggests that Lieberman still could win a fourth term, even if he loses the Democratic primary Aug. 8, however.

Lieberman filed papers last week that will allow him to petition his way onto the November ballot. The poll found that among all registered Connecticut voters surveyed, including non-Democrats, Lieberman had the support of 51 percent, followed by Lamont with 27 percent and Republican Alan Schlesinger with 9 percent.

:) Now, before going all Weepy for poor Alan there, let us note that his 9% is Up by a huge Share of Twelve-and-a-Half Percent, i.e. up One Full Point from his June 8 showing of 8% :> AAAND ~ this FOLLOWING the Keystone Kop’s Klaims about the Kasino Kerfuffles which frightened Alan’s party “leadership” into Calling for his Withdrawal! Yes, clearly Senator-elect Schlesinger ;} has now Played the Blackjack Card and can no longer be Counted out as the vast Recreational Gaming Vote begins to Cut in his favor. :)

Read the whole article and Memorize the Whole Poll. :>

Footnote (from the article) ~

The campaign announced Thursday that former President Clinton would help campaign for Lieberman.

Yaaaay! :) Word is that Bubba & Joe will Go to Waterbury. / These are Brave Men I tell you. :> (Cripes, I hope the Handlers make sure that Queen Noor isn’t there. :)

Well, “limping northward” would probably be more accurate, but I couldn’t resist the pun, especially now that we know how Beryl is pronounced.

Unsurprisingly, Tropical Storm Beryl is weakening as she approaches New England. Winds have dropped to 50 mph, and will continue to slowly drop as the storm moves over cooler water and experiences higher levels of wind shear. As for the track, Charles Fenwick writes:

It appears that the anticipated sharpened turn to the northeast has begun. I suspect that the only area that will get anything resembling sustained tropical storm force winds out of this will be extreme eastern Massachusettes (i.e. Nantucket and Cape Cod); for them Beryl will be a northeaster with a name.

You can clearly see Beryl on radar; she has a decently well-organized northern semicircle.

In case you missed it yesterday, the House voted 260-167 (largely along party lines) to pass a bill that, get this, would prohibit U.S. federal courts from hearing any cases involving the Pledge of Allegiance. Last time I checked, it was the Constitution, not the Congress which decides what authority the judicial branch holds. [UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Er, well, actually…] Regardless of your political leanings, I think anyone who values the protections our Founding Fathers laid out in the Constitution through the separation of powers should be appalled at this move to pander to the Religious Right.

..they use an empty auditorium, a ton of people wearing colored shirts, 4 hours, and stop motion photography to recreate Space Invaders. The funniest thing to come out of France, in, well, ever.

The 11 am NHC advisory expands the tropical storm watch area, due to uncertainty in the track forecast.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE…INCLUDING CAPE COD…NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA’S VINEYARD.

AT 11 AM EDT … 1500 UTC … A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT…AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND PORT JEFFERSON.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

From the 11 am NHC discussion,

IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BERYL HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS

Iranians were believed to be present at North Korea's July 4 missile tests, assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator with Pyongyang, testified today. Visit CNN for the latest.

The anticipated tropical storm warning has been posted. From the 8 am NHC advisory:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE…INCLUDING CAPE COD…NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA’S VINEYARD.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY.

Central pressure is 1002 mb, maximum sustained winds 60 mph, tides may run 1-3 feet above normal, and 2-4 inches of rain are expected. The center is expected to stay offshore as Beryl sweeps past New England, but some of the models call for landfall in this area. From the 5 am NHC discussion:

THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND OVER NOVA SCOTIA…AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN LEFT OUTLIERS…CALLING FOR THE CENTER OF BERYL TO ACTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND.

BERYL IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER…WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36-48 HR