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Tropical update: “exceptionally active June” ahead?
Posted by on Tuesday, June 13, 2006 at 7:48 pm

While my TWC buddy Mark Newman explains why he sat Alberto out, Mark Sudduth at HurricaneTrack writes, “With the exception of the immediate coast, the effects from Alberto have been more beneficial than anything else.” Dr. Jeff Masters agrees, saying the season’s first storm produced “modest damage” and “beneficial rains.” But the big story from Masters’s wrap-up of Alberto is his tantalizing preview of his next blog post:

Tomorrow, I’ll analyze Alberto’s sudden burst of intensification Monday morning, and report on what the rest of June may hold for us. It could be an exceptionally active June.

I’m definitely curious now!

Meanwhile, on the Weather Channel Blog, Stu Ostro says that “just because there’s a tropical storm or hurricane this early doesn’t necessarily mean anything for the remainder of the season.” That absolutely true — but so is this:

But yikes, look at the deep tropical Atlantic in this colorized infrared satellite image below from this morning! One has to remind oneself that this is mid-June, not July or August …

Here’s the satellite image he’s talking about:

Yikes is right! And so is “exceptionally active”! But according to the NHC, development is not expected:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA… MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES… AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE… AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS… PUERTO RICO… AND HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED… AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The NHC doesn’t address the most noticable feature on the above satellite map, the massive blob of red and orange just off the African coast. The wave “1350 miles east of the Southern Windward Islands” is the middle wave of the three pictured above (I think). So I’m not sure what’s up with the wave on the right. Maybe it just developed, and they’ll talk about it in the next Tropical Weather Outlook.




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