Two more weatherbloggers have weighed in on the official start of hurricane season. Weather Channel meteorologist Matt Newman writes:

The first day of hurricane season appears to be off to a calm start. One must remember 1992 when Andrew struck Florida. Yes, it was in late August and it was the first named system of that season. Do not be fooled by a calm start. How active the season will be has no relationship to the impact on the U.S. All it takes is one tropical system to cause harm and destruction. Keep in mind, even tropical storms can be very dangerous.

Bottom Line: Everyone should always be prepared!

And weatherblogger extraordinaire Dr. Jeff Masters writes:

The hurricane season of 2006 is here! The date June 1 has taken on a notoriety second only to 9/11 in the consciousness of many of us, and the arrival of summer now has an ominous flavor–thanks to the unbelievable Hurricane Season of 2005. As I sat at my desk back on New Year’s Day this year writing a blog on Zeta, the 28th named storm of that season, I wondered if the Hurricane Season of 2005 would ever end. Would an endless series of tropical storms develop through the winter, making the traditional June 1 start of hurricane season seem meaningless? Well, I am happy to report that the atmosphere sometimes does behave in a logical and predictable way. We’ve had a normal five straight months of no tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, leading up to today’s official start to the season. And if you’re not ready for hurricane season yet, then the Atlantic Hurricane Gods have benevolently granted you an extension to your preparation period–this year’s season will have a slow start. …

High wind shear is going to be a severe impediment to tropical storm formation for at least the first two weeks of June. The jet stream has split into two branches–the polar jet, located over the northern U.S., and the subtropical jet, which is blowing over the Gulf of Mexico. As long as the subtropical jet is blowing over the Gulf of Mexico with 30 - 50 knots of wind like it is now, no tropical storm formation is likely in the Gulf. If we do get Tropical Storm Alberto in the next two weeks, it will have to form in the western Caribbean south of Cuba. Steering currents would then likely take the storm north across Cuba and then northeastward across the Bahamas and out to sea. The Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle will be protected from any tropical storms by the strong subtropical jet steam. I’m predicting only a 10% chance of a tropical storm in the Atlantic by June 15 this year.

The GFS model predicts that the subtropical jet will continue to generate high levels of wind shear over the prime June breeding grounds for hurricanes for at least the next 12 days. After that, I suspect the subtropical jet will weaken, and we will get one tropical storm forming in late June over the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Dr. Masters is so confident in his prediction of a slow start to the season, he’s taking the next two weeks off:

Given that the next two weeks are likely to be the quietest time in what promises otherwise to be another long and busy hurricane season, I’m outta here. This will be my final “live” blog until June 13, as I’m taking my main summer vacation early. I plan to spend some time at Cape Hatteras before any hurricanes threaten! … If Alberto does surprise us while I’m gone, the other meteorologists at wunderground will post the latest analysis here for you.

Also on wunderground, over at weatherguy03’s blog, they’re having a prediction contest for when Alberto will form. Nearly everyone thinks he will form by the end of June, even though the climatological odds of that are around 50-50.

Along the same lines, but with more at stake, over at TradeSports.com you can actually bet money on which state(s) will get hit by major hurricanes this season (Florida has a clear lead, followed by Louisiana and then… New York?! Clearly, they’ve been drinking too much of the AccuWeather kool-aid), and what you think will be the last named storm of the season (Patty and Rafael are the favorites).

Speaking of names, Charles Fenwick takes a look at the history of this year’s set of names. He calls the exercise “a little bit of fun (in the weather geek sense) for the start of hurricane season.” The only one I have a strong recollection of is Hurricane Gordon, which in 1994 seemed for a while like a legitimate threat to hit New England, where I was an eighth-grader at the time. But it confounded forecasters and took a wacky southward turn, and ultimately weakened before hitting Florida as a tropical storm.