Indeed, it would be folly for Bush to travel to someplace as unsafe as Iraq without it being a “surprise.”
That said, I like what someone suggested a while back, when asked what would be a good indicator of “victory” in Iraq. He said, when American officials can make pre-announced visits to Iraq, we will have won the war. That sounds about right.
Since no one is under the mistaken impression that we have yet won the war, you are correct, this is not surprising.