With the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season less than a month away, there is considerable buzz in weather-nerd circles about the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. Apparently, there have been an awful lot of cloudless days down there, allowing the sunlight to really heat up the water and produce unseasonably warm SSTs. I’ve gotten a couple of e-mails about this, one from Eric of Erictek, a Purdue student, who compared the maps on this website and concluded that the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico about three weeks ahead of where they were last year. For example, compare these maps:
Wow. Scary. Another e-mailer, Scott Fort, passes along a relevant excerpt from a local weatherman’s e-mail newsletter:
DATELINE: GULF OF MEXICO: Data buoy #42001 was reporting a water temperature of 80.1. A year ago at this time, it was 75.6. There is growing concern that the Gulf of Mexico, across the board, has warmer water temperatures than at this same time last year. And we all know what happened last year. This means that we could see an early start to the tropical storm season, although water temperature is just one piece of the pie.
When the sea surface temperature gets to the mid 80s, hurricanes really like that.
When it gets to about 86 or 87, it is like giving a kid all the candy he wants.
David Emory Stooksbury, from the University of Georgia, advises that sea surface temperatures reaching 82 does not normally occur until June.
This year, by early May, much of the Caribbean water had reached 82 degrees.
Not only are sea surface temperatures abnormally warm for early May, he reports, but the entire hurricane season is expected to be very active.
Indeed, Dr. William Gray is predicting a busy season, with a higher-than-usual chance of U.S. landfalls — although The Storm Track says, “It is worth noting that William Gray’s forecasts…since he has been giving them are less accurate than the 5 year running average.” But the point is, Dr. Gray and other experts believe the general atmospheric conditions are ripe for lots of storm formation — and once the storms form, if they move into the jacuzzi-like temps the Gulf of Mexico may have by that point, we could in for big trouble. Again.
[UPDATE/CORRECTION: As noted here, this post may be somewhat misleading. Charles Fenwick, who knows more about this stuff than me, says “SSTs can be volatile on a daily basis… it is more useful to look at at a longer term average and compare it to a long term norm.” And, looking at such an average, the sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are actually now lower than what they were last year, according to The Storm Track. (They’re still above normal, though.) PLEASE NOTE: The maps posted by Fenwick, and by a commenter on this post, purporting to show that the Gulf is now MUCH cooler than last year, are unintentionally misleading, as explained here. The colors are just bluer because they changed the scale, not because it’s cooler. Fenwick’s broader point, however, is correct.]
P.S. On a related note… does anyone want to volunteer to be a “hurricane guestblogger” — or perhaps I should say, guest weather nerd — this summer? I want to plan ahead for this: I assume that BrendanLoy.com will get heightened traffic anytime a storm is nearing the U.S. coast, because of last year… and yet, for the first time ever, I most likely won’t be able to blog at all during business hours on weekdays from late May through mid-August. (Blogging on the job is not exactly the first impression I want to make at my law firm!) This obviously presents something of a dilemma, as I don’t want to lose my status as a go-to blog for up-to-date hurricane info, insight, and links. So, I’m hoping to put together a small army of guest-nerds :) to help me keep things fresh, monitoring not just news sites, but NHC advisories and images, computer-model maps, and the handful of weather blogs that I routinely link to. (I feel like I should have training sessions or something… heh. No, but seriously, I will probably put together some sort of a basic “how to” document, as there are certain issues of timing, what’s important and what’s less so, etc., that one learns when one has been blogging hurricanes for four years and following them for about 17 years.) Because hurricane-blogging is kind of a specialized thing, I don’t know how many of my regular guestbloggers will want to do it on a regular basis… plus, the ability to help out in this regard is obviously contingent on having at least some ability to blog during business hours. Anyway, if anyone — current guestblogger or not — thinks they might be interested, please leave a comment or shoot me an e-mail (tips[at]brendanloy.com).
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Categories: 2006 Hurricane Season
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May 7th, 2006 at 9:19:42 am
Mmmm, look at that warm water forming a ‘channel’ of sorts right toward New Orleans. Could be another biggie.
May 7th, 2006 at 9:57:46 am
As Jon Stewart said, better brush up on your Greek Alphabet.
May 7th, 2006 at 10:51:10 am
The good news is that global warming appears to be entirely localized to the Gulf of Mexico. This should only impact Mexico, not the US, as it is really their gulf.
And to think, I almost traded my coal-powered smokestack-mobile for a hybrid.
May 7th, 2006 at 11:06:45 am
Write theatre reviews, movie reviews and be part of the new thespian community at
www.re-vue.net
May 7th, 2006 at 12:19:14 pm
Lesbian reviews, wow, that sounds HOT!!
Oh wait, rereading….thespian not lesbian….
Never mind.
May 7th, 2006 at 2:04:55 pm
Haha, Casey you made me laugh with “…global warming appears to be entirely localized…” ;-)
May 7th, 2006 at 7:55:46 pm
Brendan, why not whip up a tutorial for all your readers to see, along the lines of what you describe for your potential minions, er, BL weather nerds.
Teach us how to see through the hype we see and hear on TV (Weather Channel included) and concentrate on the important stuff?
Include whatever preparedness/survival stuff you like.
Then pin it in a prominent spot on your site.
It seems you are going to be preparing this info anyway, so why not make it more widely known?
May 7th, 2006 at 7:57:43 pm
Ed, I’m not sure my “how to” guide will cover all the ground you’re talking about, but whatever ground it ends up covering, I probably will post it on the blog.
May 7th, 2006 at 10:51:19 pm
Not only is the water getting warmer, but the image of Jesus is appearing right there in the middle of the Gulf!!! It’s a sign. The End of Days is near!!!
May 7th, 2006 at 11:49:23 pm
And we will know we are in trouble when the first hurricane of the season forms on 6/6/06
May 8th, 2006 at 9:28:55 am
I could be interested in an occasional guestblog spot. I live in Fort Walton Beach, FL (between Pensacola and Panama City). We occasionally get mention on The Weather Channel during “the season,” as does Destin, about five miles east of FWB. Personal experience with Opal and Ivan.
May 8th, 2006 at 10:49:07 am
No one is looking at the up-side of this… Great water for swimming in!!!
May 8th, 2006 at 1:52:03 pm
JO @ 10:51 - that’s not the image of Jesus forming, it’s obviously Brendan’s right ear - you can’t see the hair cuz it’s already red …
So - serious science question (yeah, I know, on *this* blog?) … when does the significantly warmer water in the Gulf translate to significantly warmer water at the tail end of the North Atlantic Drift ? Weeks ? Months ?
May 8th, 2006 at 9:58:06 pm
Man, could they spare some of that warm water for the Pacific? Selfish bastards.
May 9th, 2006 at 12:56:09 pm
Hey - take as much as you want !
(grin)
May 10th, 2006 at 4:22:04 am
alls I knows is, we/mexico should drop a HUGE ICE cube in the gulf when them hurricanes start up, maybe it would counter act the severity of the darn thang
May 10th, 2006 at 4:25:15 am
trust germania
May 10th, 2006 at 10:54:13 am
Surely interesting information. As I understand it there are 2 ingredients for powerful hurricanes, The lack of wind shear. Unfortunately both are now and predicted to be to be present.
May 10th, 2006 at 2:39:43 pm
[…] Brendan Loy had a post this evening on a graphic that has been making the rounds depicting seemingly boiling Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. I don't have time for a lengthy response, but given the treatment of it, I feel obliged to give some kind of response now. […]
May 14th, 2006 at 5:48:27 pm
“good news is that global warming appears to be entirely localized to the Gulf of Mexico” has got to be one of the best oxymoronic sentences to come down the pike in a long time.
May 23rd, 2006 at 5:50:03 am
Last year - http://tinyurl.com/qexdy - was a lot worse than this year - http://tinyurl.com/ry2cc but data for next week could show this year being a lot worse than last year. What matters is the tropical waves coming off the coast of west Africa combined with the water temperatures firstly in the west Atlantic, secondly in the Caribbean, and lastly in the Gulf of Mexico.
May 29th, 2006 at 4:57:35 pm
Cherrypicker, can you tell me where to get those color charts? I am located here in New Orleans and am of course interested in this …
June 11th, 2006 at 8:24:17 pm
I have been on the political blogs for a few years and just stumbled onto this. This looks like it might be alot more useful than trying to figure out if the political winds in america will ever change.I look foward to learing alot from this place.
September 16th, 2006 at 10:35:41 pm
You share my interest in hurricanes. I’ve always been a skywatcher
anyway. My first big storm was Hazel in Washinton, DC. We only
got part of it, wind gusts way over 75 mph. I was hanging onto
a tree. I only weighed 105 lbs. Silly me, now I’m in Florida
and weigh a hefty 85 lbs. What am I doing here? Anyway, I’m
a lover of the beauty of each hurricane as they are all a little
different in their looks, by satellite anyway. The horrors it
brings can be unbearable. By finding photos of natures beauty
before it comes down and plays hell with the earthlings, I find
I’m not as afraid of them now as I was. Can you tell me where
I can find good satellite photos on any hurricanes back from
my first in 1994 or 1995 to present. I’ve been to NOAA and
NASA and it’s slim pickins now. The few I got were of 2004, very
busy here that year, but I can’t get photos of all of them in
that year. I’ve searched and searched. I’d appreciate your time
if you can give me a site I may not have gone to. Most now are
of graphs, and only tech stuff. I’m looking for the beauty.
Thank you in advance, Anne