If you compare this year’s forecast with last year’s, while they say they aren’t expecting a repeat, note that 13-16 forecast for 2006 is more than the original 12-14 forecast for 2005. And we know how many 12-14 turned out to be. Scary thought. I agree, unlikely we will beat that record, and I certainly hope we don’t, but scary nonetheless.
The forecast doesn’t matter. If you live in a hurricane threatened area [I lived in southeast Florida for six years], then you need to be prepared for hurricanes, whether the forecast is one or twenty. It does, after all, only take one to destroy property and take lives.
Actually, I retract the previous statement. The forecast does matter, to insurance companies, FEMA, othe govenment and government agencies, and other people concerned about the potential macro-impact of the storm season. I was referring only to the individuals in these areas, as they need to be preapred regardless.
After you’ve made your preparations, though, it doesn’t really matter whether they forecast one or twenty - if one hits, it hits, and if none do, none do. If twenty Cat-5 storms form and they all dissipate in the North Atlantic, is it still a “bad year”?
Good point about storms coming ashore and then going back out, which is potentially an issue for the eastern seaboard. And of course I neglected the effects of high tides and wave action - a hurricane doesn’t actually have to make landfall to do a heck of a lot of damage. The coast of northwest Florida is very vulnerable to precisely that kind of damage, and North Carolina has areas at risk. I suspect Long Island might have issues there too.
And great Kennedy crack, too!
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