Proving once again that Australia is the new Florida, Cyclone Monica is threatening to make a second landfall — this time as a Category 5 cyclone. The Australian categories are a bit different than the ones we’re used to, and Monica would actually be a Category 4 if it were in the Atlantic, with 144 mph sustained winds. But that’s plenty bad enough — “the same intensity level observed in a strong category 4 hurricane like Charley, and stronger than Katrina and Rita were at landfall.”


Cyclone Monica this morning, just before hitting the Wessel Islands.

UPDATE, 1:45 PM: Holy cow, it keeps getting worse and worse:

This situation continues to deteriorate along the north coast of Australia. It is hard to imagine a worse situation in this area as Australian cyclones almost never reach this strength. Monica is currently much stronger than 1974’s Cyclone Tracy which is the benchmark storm for the area. As far as I can tell, Monica may be the most intense cyclone to ever impact the region or even Australia. However, records are hard to find. After striking Queensland a few days ago, Monica has crossed Gulf of Carpentaria and is strafing the coast of the Northern Territory. All of this comes as part of a recent string of cyclone strikes across the country. The latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Monica as a category 5 cyclone with sustained wind of 145 knots (167 mph) and a central pressure of 892 mb.

Monica is now over Australia’s Wessel Islands, making Monica a far worse hurricane than anything seen in the Atlantic last summer. At 892 mb, Monica is stronger than the dreaded hurricanes Katrina and Rita ever were, never mind at landfall. The symmetry seen is Monica is flawless and it is rare to ever see a tropical system look so well-defined. …

The models are very consistent with a track just along the northern coast turning inland near Darwin. Such a pass by a category 5 cyclone along the coast would be very devastating to the whole region. Darwin residents should be prepared for a strike on Tuesday.

The American model ensemble forecasts are very consistent with the other models. This leaves little doubt to the destructive path that Monica is likely to take right over Darwin, the region’s largest city.

The models also indicate likely future intensification. With Monica already being an incredible category 5 cyclone, a bad situation is likely to get worse if that is possible.

Holy crap.

UPDATE, 4:00 PM: Welcome, InstaPundit readers!

Jeff Masters has an excellent update, as usual:

Australia’s hurricane season continues its parade of unusually intense storms this year with the intensification of Cyclone Monica today into a huge Category 5 storm. The 12 GMT advisory this morning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Monica at 165 mph sustained winds and a 892 mb pressure, making it the second most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. The most intense Southern Hemisphere cyclone on record was Cyclone Zoe of 2003, which had a 879 mb pressure. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology puts Monica’s pressure at 905 mb, which would make it the fifth strongest cyclone on record. Reliable records of cyclone intensity only go back to the mid-1980s in the Southern Hemisphere, but two of top five strongest hurricanes ever recorded there have occurred this year–Tropical Cyclone Glenda (898 mb) from March, and now Monica. What’s really extraordinary about Monica is that she came so late in the season–tropical cyclone season is usually over by late April in the Southern Hemisphere. Monica’s formation echoes what happened in the Atlantic last year, with the intensification of Hurricane Wilma to a record 882 mb pressure very late in the hurricane season–October 19. When one adds in the $1 billion in devastation wrought in Queensland by Category 4 Cyclone Larry (915 mb) in March, Australians must feel like residents of hurricane alley in the Atlantic did last year, when three of the six strongest hurricanes on record occurred, causing the most damage ever–what’s going on with the weather? However, be reminded that the Northern Hemisphere Pacific Ocean had a very below-normal tropical cyclone season last year, and the Indian Ocean also had below normal activity.

Monica is expected to track just offshore the sparsely populated north coast of Australia today as it moves slowly westward. Darwin, the most heavily populated city in the region, will begin to feel Monica’s wind later today, and a direct hit is possible on Tuesday. Monica should slowly weaken before she gets to Darwin, since much of the circulation will be over land, and the eye will have to cross land as well. Still, Monica could still be a formidable Category 3 or 4 hurricane by then, and a direct hit on Darwin would likely cause severe damage.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports in the Monday morning edition:

THE most intense cyclone in Top End history is threatening remote Aboriginal communities on Australia’s northern coastline and Elcho Island where 2000 residents were last night sheltering from destructive winds.

As people in the Galiwin’ku community on Elcho Island sheltered in cyclone-coded buildings, the Northern Territory Bureau of Meteorology extended the cyclone watch area to include the Tiwi Islands and Darwin.

Cyclone Monica, which brought floods to far north Queensland last week, could hit Darwin tomorrow morning, senior forecaster Gordon Jackson said last night. …

Mr Jackson said on its current track the core of the cyclone would pass between 50 and 100 kilometres from Elcho Island early this morning and would probably weaken as it crossed land.

Other communities preparing for the worst last night were Millingimbi and Maningrida. Maningrida, on the Liverpool Estuary in Arnhem Land, is well known for its indigenous art.

Mr Jackson said Monica would probably be a category three or four cyclone by the time it reached the Darwin area.

Keep in mind, the time in north-central Australia is 13 1/2 hours later than EDT — so if it’s 4:00 PM Sunday in New York, it’s 5:30 AM Monday in Darwin. Time-zone map here.

More Australian news here and here. The official Australian Bureau of Meteorology page for the Northern Territory can be found here.

And here’s the radar loop, the track so far, and the official forecast track.

Here’s a wider view:

My previous posts about this year’s Australian cyclones are here and here. Here’s a list of the various recent storms, with relevant links. And of course, the incomparable Wikipedia has a page on the Southern Hemisphere’s cyclone season thus far. If those pages are a little confusing, it’s probably because “instead of having one hurricane forecast center like the U.S., Australia has one in each province, making it kind of hard to track if you don’t live there.”

FINAL UPDATE: More in a new post above… or just go to my homepage for the latest.