Following up on this post… a very interesting revelation, courtesy of Mickey Kaus:
A Rasmussen robo-poll reports that a third party candidate who promised to build a barrier along the Mexican border and make enforcement of immigration law his top priority beats the generic “Republican” nominee by 9 points– 30-21– and runs practically even with the generic “Democratic” nominee (who gets 31%). The border-centric third-party candidacy actually takes more votes from the Democratic side than the Republican side!. But it draws heavily from both parties, and as heavily from “moderates” as from “conservatives.” …
Yes, this is a robo-poll (though voters may feel more comfortable telling a robot what they really think). And yes, as Rasmussen notes, “This result probably reflects unhappiness with both parties on the immigration issue rather than a true opportunity for a third party.” And yes, candidates with appealing specifics often beat undefined, generic party choices. Still, it raises suspicions about the semi-confected, hothouse Beltway CW that a tough, non-”comprehensive,” enforcement-first approach is a political loser in the short term.
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Categories: Immigration, Election 2008
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April 27th, 2006 at 7:21:49 pm
The argument in the Beltway is that an enforcement-first approach will doom the national GOP to what happened with the CAGOP after Pete Wilson and Prop 187, but the comparison is not at all legitimate. This Rasmussen robo-poll, however, does an excellent job of illustrating why President Bush’s job approval rating right now is at record lows, and why the GOP base is probably not going to show up this fall.
April 27th, 2006 at 7:36:12 pm
The problem with this poll is it is all hypothetical. It doesn’t take much to turn a real candidate with this position into the second coming of David Duke. However, it appears to me that Newt Gingrich is positioning himself to make a run from the position at the GOP nomination.
As for Third Party candidates, if Teddy Roosevelt couldn’t do it, nobody can.
April 27th, 2006 at 7:53:17 pm
Abe Lincoln on the other hand did manage it.
April 27th, 2006 at 7:56:37 pm
dcl-
Yes, but the WHIG Party was essentially dead by the time he ran. If anything, the country had been operating dangerously close to a one-party system by the late 1850s.
April 27th, 2006 at 9:21:47 pm
And indeed, MM Esq, nobody Can. “Getting to Two-Seventy” being the Name of the Game, the Third Force cannot Win it. / In your own write you ritely cite TR. Bully. :) Lincoln doesn’t Count, as you said. Re the Modern era you can also go find a Medium and ask Ol’ Strom (’48) and Schoolhousedoor GeorgeCorley (’68) ~ who, like our putative ‘08 Mexican Wall contender, were also Johnny One-notes (and in Not so very different a Key, either) whose Songs did Not Exactly top the charts ;> though they Did pull more EVs that ol’ Ross’s bigfat Nada (translation, Bupkis :) ‘92. :/ Or if you Really want a pathetic case, ask John B. Anderson ‘80, the Incredible Collapsing Boomlet. :}
but That Aside :), in the interests of Fairness to the Xenophobes ;] I got Just their Ticket Right Here. :) Yes & the updated Banner shall be the glorious Emblem of the Now-Know-Even-Less-Than-Nothing Party. HUGE popular appeal, there. Ruin the Republicans altogether. ;> I give the NKELTN slate 49 EVs for a Base right off the Bat. (Hint: south West, young nerd, south West. :) Why, Hell, that’s only Three Shy of Old Barry’s triumphant total back in The Black ‘64. :> Of course He was a Major party. Purportedly. :/ The Problem will be where to Expand. Even with the Homeboy Veep factor, I fear Connecticut’s magnificent 7 are on the Bubble at Best. ;} Let’s face it, Joe Lieberman he Ain’t. (Which reminds me: I dunno where Lou Lives [can’t Find it] but if it Happens to be in The Constitution State also, we can Get around the Constitutional problem by either relocating him to Old San Antone :> or else just pointing out that Darien CT is part of New York anyways. :)
April 27th, 2006 at 11:31:10 pm
Joe, you have great thoughts, but damn, you give me a headache trying to read them!!!! :-D
April 28th, 2006 at 12:55:58 am
JO, thanks. :) Seems my Work here is Done then. :) no no no ;>