The picture has been taken. There will be a few changes made to the blog tonight… or, rather, early tomorrow morning, sometime between midnight and 9:00 AM. (Mike’s terms demand certain items be posted by 9:00 AM, but I plan on making the changes before I go to bed, to prevent any possible delays. :) In the meantime, I’ve pushed Lisa’s lovely Photoshop job into the Extended Entry, in order to prevent an anticlimax. So… stay tuned.

Last night on ESPN’s College GameNight, Dick Vitale — who thinks George Mason is the greatest Cinderella story ever — talked about how he and his wife were “jumping up and down” cheering for the Patriots as they watched the game on TV yesterday. Which got me wondering… do you think Dick Vitale acts like — you know, like Dick Vitale — when he’s watching a basketball game on TV, at home with his wife? Do you think he habitually yells “IT’S AWESOME, BABY!!!!” and “OOOOHHHHH!!!! OOOOOHHHHHH!!!!” at key moments in the game? Can we put a hidden camera in his living room to find out? Please? :)

Well, since Brendan once again did not show up for class this morning, Mike and I decided it was time to get the humiliation started. Don’t worry, you’ll get to see the real thing once Brendan finally shows his face at school. Until that time, this will just have to do.

(more…)

Apparently I have become completely incapable of waking up to an alarm clock.

This is really annoying.

To put Mike Tran’s victory in the Living Room Times men’s pool — and, more specifically, his correct predictions of 13 of the Sweet 16, seven of the Elite Eight, and three of the Final Four — into some perspective, check out this quote from Sports Illustrated’s Seth Davis, in response to the question “How many brackets in all of America do you think had these teams in the Final Four?”:

Well, nobody had George Mason obviously. I would be surprised if anyone had three of these teams.

Wrong, Seth, on both points! First of all, Marc LaPlante had Mason (and Florida)… but more to the point, Mike Tran had three of the Final Four! As Luke Winn notes, though, he is indeed one of the few:

In our 328-team Tourney Blog Pool, only one entry, Dan Barton’s “Danbo’s Bubble Buster,” had three of the four Final Four schools. No one had four. … No one in Sports Illustrated’s 147-person pool had more than two Final Four teams — and only six have a champ still alive (all UCLA).

Mike has his champ (UCLA) and his runner-up (Florida) still alive, plus LSU. I bet he’s wishing he entered his Living Room Times bracket in more pools!

There is at least one person in America who has bragging rights over Mike, though. Fox Sports’s Peter Schrager writes:

Over at the yahoo.com pool, a guy named Tim Mckenna has all four final four teams still alive in his bracket — including George Mason. Now, THIS is a guy I’d like to speak with. Tim Mckenna, who are you? And would you be interested in wearing a tie that matches your hi-liter next March? For those of you with Vegas interests, Mckenna has UCLA beating Florida next Friday.

Coincidentally, so does Mike. :)

UPDATE: Here’s a look at McKenna’s bracket. And there are also three perfect brackets, Final Four-wise, on ESPN.com’s contest. But all of those folks got at least 5 of the Sweet 16 wrong, and they were all 7-for-8 in the Elite Eight, just like Mike. So, in the 28 games since the first round, Mike has made fewer errors than any of them! Moreover, he had the right idea, knocking UConn out in the Elite Eight. If only he’d picked George Mason in place of Michigan State, he’d have probably the best bracket in America right now.

 
[UPDATE, 8/22/06: For the latest, up-to-date commentary on Spike Lee’s film — which I was in — please visit my homepage or my Katrina category.]
 
 
In an article in — of all places — the Irish Times, Spike Lee offers some insight into the Hurricane Katrina documentary he’s working on, for which he interviewed me back in January. No surprises, really, in terms of where he’s apparently going with it:

“I’m doing a documentary now on Hurricane Katrina, and that’s going to deal with another issue: class. America for a long time prided itself on being a classless society, but that’s bulls**t. That’s a crock.”

HBO is financing the documentary, When the Levees Broke, and will broadcast it on August 29th, the anniversary of the day the hurricane hit New Orleans.

“We feel it’s going to be the definitive statement about a landmark moment in the history of the United States of America, and how this country turned its back on its citizens. It’s evident to me that the people down there did not matter to the present administration - poor black people, poor white people, and they’re not a concern on the agenda for that administration. Over four years of Bush has really changed things. It’s been a nightmare. People don’t look at America any longer the same way they used to do, as a beacon of democracy and all that stuff ”

Lee is particularly incensed at the response from US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice to the emergency. “While people were drowning in New Orleans, she was buying shoes on Madison Avenue, and then she went to Spamalot, the Monty Python show on Broadway. Her ass - excuse me - Miss Rice should have been down there in New Orleans and not on Broadway that weekend. It was coming up to the Labour Day weekend and a lot of people were on vacation, but they should have cut their vacation short.

“New Orleans is a great city, the most unique city in America. We just got back from shooting there at Mardi Gras. We’ve been making the film since September. I wanted to follow it up because a lot of people got the misinformation that it was Hurricane Katrina that brought the devastation. After Hurricane Katrina passed by, people came out of their houses and it was bright and sunny. The wind wasn’t blowing.

“It seemed that New Orleans had dodged the bullet. There was wind damage and stuff, but then the levees broke. That was what brought the devastation and put 80 per cent of the city under water.”

Although he has shot a great deal of footage already, and has access to a mass of archive material, Lee says: “We want to get some of the administration on camera to talk about it, although I just don’t think Miss Rice is going to be interviewed by me.”

Where my thoughts and observations fit into his movie’s message, if at all, I have no idea. I just hope my core belief about the government response — that it was incompetence, not malice, and that it was a failure at all levels of government, not just the feds — comes across accurately (or perhaps I should say, doesn’t come across inaccurately).

The latest rumors on the Internets say that Indiana’s primary head-coaching target isn’t Gonzaga’s Mark Few, but rather, the guy he would have faced if only Batista had passed the damn ball to Raivio on Thursday: Memphis’s John Calipari. (Hat tip: Nick, who hopes it’s true.)

UPDATE: The Indianapolis Star has a new article on the Few rumors.

Barbara Turner and the UConn women save the state of Connecticut from a very depressing day with an amazing finish. In case you missed it, here’s how it ended:

source file

With nearly all of the favorites still alive, the 9th annual Living Room Times women’s NCAA pool is a wide-open affair; 19 contestants still have a chance of winning, and no one’s odds are better than 13.3%. Scenario info here. Sean Sullivan of Boston, MA has the current lead through 56 games, with the Elite Eight starting on Monday. Complete standings here and after the jump.

(more…)

So, you may recall that I lost a bet on Thursday to newly crowned pool champion Mike Tran regarding the UCLA-Gonzaga game… and then overslept Friday when I was supposed to pay my debt, resulting in a more severe penalty. The first portion of that penalty will occur in Room 121 just before 8:35 AM tomorrow (i.e., before B.A. — which means I actually have to go to class), and shortly thereafter, I’ll let my blog readers in on the fun. So, in other words, stay tuned.

Mike Tran, a member of the UCLA Class of 2004 and a second-year law student at Notre Dame, clinched the 11th annual Living Room Times men’s NCAA basketball pool Sunday when #3-seed Florida defeated #1-seed Villanova, 75-62.

Tran correctly predicted three of the Final Four teams, and seven of the Elite Eight. His only mistake was failing to predict George Mason’s Cinderella run — and the Patriots’ win Sunday actually helped him, as he had UConn losing to Michigan State in the Elite Eight, so he would have lost ground on the field in the event of a Husky win. Here’s a look at Tran’s bracket.

Tran is the fourth contestant in Living Room Times history to clinch the men’s pool during the Elite Eight. But Tran’s accomplishment is all the more remarkable because it occurred in a pool with a record 218 contestants, meaning a greater diversity of picks to compete against. Lou Ruggiero in 1996, Liz Acey in 1997, and Justin Vale in 2003 clinched the pool in the Elite Eight over fields of 17, 24 and 43 contestants, respectively — three of the five smallest fields in the 10-year history of Times men’s pools.

Now, with his 217 competitors in this year’s pool mathematically eliminated, Tran will take aim at history. If UCLA wins the championship, he would break the record for largest margin of victory in any Times pool — currently 47 points, set by Vale in the 2003 men’s pool. A title-game victory by UCLA over George Mason would give Tran a 52-point victory; UCLA over Florida would give him a remarkable 72-point margin. If Florida beats UCLA in the title game, Tran would tie Vale’s record with a 47-point win.

In addition, if UCLA beats Florida in the title game, Tran would finish with 381 points, shattering the all-time men’s pool points record of 362, set last year by fellow Notre Dame 2L Brian Kiolbasa. If UCLA beats George Mason, Tran would have 361 points; if Florida beats UCLA, he would have 356 points. In either event, that would be the second-highest total ever in a men’s pool, beating Lou Ruggiero’s 1996 mark of 354. (Points record info here.)

By following in Kiolbasa’s footsteps, Tran becomes the second consecutive member of the Notre Dame Law School Class of 2007 to win the men’s pool. Domers have been considerably more successful than Trojans in this regard; no USC-affiliated contestant has yet won any Times pool, though they’ve been trying since 2000. (Several are still mathematically alive in this year’s women’s pool.)

Tran’s picks have gotten better as the tournament has progressed. He was tied for 97th after going 11-for-16 on the tournament’s first day, and tied for 79th after an identical second-day record brought him to 22-for-32 in the first round. But a 7-for-8 third day lifted him into a tie for 26th, and he had sole possession of eighth place after a 6-for-8 fourth day brought him to 13-for-16 in the second round. He took the lead when LSU shocked Duke in the first game of the Sweet Sixteen, and never relinquished it.

Tran was the only player in the pool to pick seven of the Elite Eight teams, and he was the only player to pick three of the Final Four teams. Only 5 contestants managed to get six Elite Eight teams right, and only 11 picked two of the Final Four.

Tran currently has 316 points out of a maximum possible 412. (The pool is scored on a 5-7-10-15-20-25 basis.)

Ben Eng is second with 297; Andrew Long is third with 289. Eng moved ahead of Long with Florida’s win, which he predicted. Long will finish second if UCLA beats LSU. Eng will finish second if LSU beats UCLA, dropping Long either to his second consecutive third-place finish — if LSU loses in the title game — or to a fourth-place finish, if LSU wins the title (lifting Matt Wiser into third place).

Logan Pugh is currently fourth with 272 points, followed by Drew Harrison with 268 and Matt Scarborough and David Kreutz tied for sixth with 267. Harrison and Scarborough predicted Florida’s win. Pugh and Kreutz were two of the last three contestants to be mathematically eliminated, along with Matt Wiser (17th place).

David’s brother Andrew Kreutz is eighth with 264 points, making the Kreutz family the most successful in this year’s pool. Rounding out the top ten are Kirby Bullard with 262 and Adam DeGuire with 260.

The only contestant to pick George Mason’s win is Marc LaPlante. He also picked Florida, going 2-for-2 on a day when 199 of the 218 pool contestants (91.2%) went 0-for-2. LaPlante was tied for 187th place this morning; he is now tied for 96th.

Complete standings here and after the jump.

(more…)

Dane Lindberg, D.C.-area resident, in a phone message just now: “You know what really sucks? I thought about taking Mason in your pool, just to be petulant.” (Instead, Dane didn’t enter the pool at all. You can’t win if you don’t play!)

David Gonzalez, one of the estimated 500,000 protesters in Los Angeles, responding to the argument that immigration laws should be tightened for national-security reasons: “When did you ever see a Mexican blow up the World Trade Center? Who do you think built the World Trade Center?” Heh.

Florida leads Villanova at hafltime, 35-30. If the Gators hold on, UCLA alum and Notre Dame 2L Mike Tran will clinch the 11th annual Living Room Times men’s NCAA pool.

If Villanova wins, Matt Wiser will win the pool if LSU wins the championship; David Kreutz will win if LSU is the runner-up; and Logan Pugh will win if Villanova beats UCLA in the title game. But they’ll all be mathematically eliminated if Florida wins.

Andrew Long and Ben Eng were eliminated when George Mason stunned UConn. Long’s elimination leaves Kreutz, a University of Washington grad who attended USC for a year, as the last USC-affiliated contestant with a chance to break the “Trojan curse” in this year’s men’s pool. (Several Trojans are still alive in the women’s pool.) No USC student, former student, or alum has ever won a Living Room Times pool.

P.S. In other news, congrats to Marc LaPlante, the only contestant out of 218 who picked George Mason to reach the Final Four. (Side note: he also picked Florida.) The Patriots’ win catapulted him from 187th place to 151st.

UConn misses the potential game-winning three at the buzzer, and the #11 seed, George Mason — out of the Colonial Athletic Conference — is going to the Final Four!!!

They tie LSU ‘86 as the lowest seed ever to make the Final Four… and they’re the first true mid-major to qualify since 1979, when Larry Bird led Indiana State out of the Missouri Valley Conference and Penn qualified out of the Ivy League. That was back when only 40 teams made the NCAAs.

Remember the pundits who were saying “this could be the year” that all four #1 seeds might make the Final Four? HA! Villanova had better beat Florida, or else none of the #1 seeds will make it! In a shameless I-told-you-so gesture, I refer you to my critique of Gregg Doyel’s prediction that upsets would be scarce in 2006:

I really find this amusing. Every year, basketball pundits are convinced that this will be the year when all the high seeds avoid those pesky early-round upsets. Every year, the TV guys confidently roll out their Final Four picks, laden almost exclusively with #1 and #2 seeds, and the occasional #3 thrown in as a “sleeper.â€? I’m not sure these guys have been watching the same NCAA Tournament that I have over the past decade… [I then proceeded to demonstrate the inherent unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament, and then concluded:] Is there any reason to believe this year will be different? On the contrary, the numbers suggest this tournament could be crazier than ever.

In fairness, Doyel’s column anticipates that teams like LSU and UCLA might make runs; his point was that first-round upsets wouldn’t happen this year. But that would rule out George Mason, now wouldn’t it? My point here isn’t really to criticize Doyel, though. My point is to criticize a broader phenomenon: the tendency of pundits to be unjustifiably overconfident in the top seeds every damn year. As the song says:

Mine eyes have the glory of a bracket freshly made
And prognosticators certain that the seeds will be obeyed
But like clockwork, underdogs emerge and favorites are waylaid
The Madness marches on!

Glory, glory, Cinderella!
Glory, glory, Cinderella!
Glory, glory, Cinderella!
The Madness marches on!

And now I’ll make another bold prediction: the pundits will learn nothing from this experience. Next year, four #1 seeds will again be anointed, and the pundits will again conclude that they are nigh unbeatable, except perhaps by a scrappy underdog #2 seed, or maybe a “sleeper” #3 seed. Dickie V will put Duke, UConn, North Carolina and some other Top 3 seed in the Final Four. The other pundits will make very similar predictions. And they will all be bizarrely confident in these picks.

The NCAA Tournament rocks. :)

P.S. Not that I, or virtually anyone else, picked George Mason. That’s not the point. What I don’t understand is why so many pundits seem not to have learned the all-important lesson: expect the unexpected. Make your picks, guys, but don’t say things like, “I don’t know if anyone can beat Duke/UConn/Texas/UNC/etc.” Someone always beats at least a few of those “unbeatable” teams. Every year! It’s not surprising anymore. It’s just March Madness.

P.P.S. A fun flashback:

With the NCAA selection show exactly 100 hours away, the most intriguing question right now — supplanting the whole Missouri Valley vs. power conferences debate — is what the selection committee will decide to do with George Mason.

Heading into the Colonial Athletic Association tournament, the Patriots, regular-season co-champs in the CAA, were widely considered a “lockâ€? to receive an at-large bid, if they needed it, to the NCAAs. … Suddenly, everybody and his brother is suggesting that the combination of GMU’s semifinal loss and Skinn’s one-game suspension might cause the committee to look elsewhere to fill that at-large spot. …

Needless to say, Skinn’s action was very unsportsmanlike, but the whole team should not be punished so harshly for one player’s mistake (for which he has apologized). Suspending him is clearly the right decision, but effectively “suspending� the team from the tournament would not be. I don’t even think Mason’s seed should be reduced, considering it’s only a one-game suspension. Reducing a team’s seed because of a star player’s season-ending injury is one thing, but doing so because he’s going to miss one game? Would UConn’s seed be lowered if the committee knew that Rudy Gay was going to miss one game — but only one — due to injury? Would Gonzaga fall from a #2 to a #3 or #4 if Adam Morrison were suspended for one game under a new NCAA policy against ridiculous facial hair? I think not. So, how can they penalize George Mason on the same basis?

Granted, as a team that would likely be in the #10-12 seed range, George Mason is less likely than UConn or Gonzaga to reach the second round, especially without Skinn. For the Patriots, it is statistically more likely to be a one-game tournament. But it’s still a blatantly unfair double-standard to treat them differently just because they would have a lower seed. I believe that all NCAA teams should be judged on the basis that they are participating in a six-game tournament, and seeded accordingly. The committee should not assume, for seeding or selection purposes, that any team will be one-and-done, no matter what the percentages might say.

Looks like I was far more right than I realized! :)

Continued from previous post…

That buzzer-beater by UConn was every bit as dramatic as Sparks’s game-tying three-pointer for Kentucky against Michigan State in last year’s Elite Eight. Husky fans the ultimate ending will be better than it was for Kentucky.

Anyway, UConn 74, George Mason 74, start of overtime.

UPDATE: 78-78, 3:15 to go in OT.

UPDATE 2: Mason by 4, 82-78, with 2:00 to go!

UPDATE 3: Now 84-80 Patriots, 1:01 left. UConn ball, Calhoun calls timeout.

Mason can’t miss… they’re shooting 4-for-4 from the field in overtime.

UPDATE 4: Mason tried to pull a Gonzaga there, but UConn bailed them out (again) with a foul. Patriots lead, 86-81 with 25.4 seconds left!

UPDATE 5: Another HUGE three by the Huskies, and it’s a 2-point game with 7.1 seconds left! Mason ball, though. So basically, this is exactly where we were at the end of regulation. Can they hit the free throws this time? (This time they’re in the double-bonus, though.)

FINAL UPDATE: They missed both free throws, but UConn missed the potential game-winning three-pointer and George Mason wins!