When Becky told me on Sunday that she is picking #16-seed Oral Roberts over #1-seed Memphis, my reaction was somewhere between skepticism and scorn. Not that I haven’t picked #16 seeds before — Fairfield over North Carolina in 1997 (almost happened!) and Liberty over St. Joe’s in 2004 (not even close) — but I know it’s always an objectively bad idea to make such a pick, seeing as how a #16 has never beaten a #1 in the men’s tournament, not once in 84 tries. And despite Oral Roberts’s win over USC early in the season, I saw no particular reason to believe that they are uniquely positioned to make history (or, conversely, that Memphis is uniquely positioned to be on the wrong side of history).
Becky, of course, pointed out that I reacted in a similarly negative way when she picked #15-seed Hampton over #2-seed Iowa State in 2001… and look how that turned out. I think my skepticism only solidified her commitment to picking Oral Roberts. :)
So, who’s right? Well, basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy, who has been quite successful over the years using his “Log5″ computer system to predict the outcomes of comes, thinks Oral Roberts can do it:
One thing that slipped by me last week was that this is the best field ever. There is only one team of the 65 that is outside the RPI top 150, and that’s Hampton who still has to play their way into the first round. There was a startling lack of major upsets in the conference tournaments. What does this mean? If a 16 ever beats a 1, it will be this season. To compound matters, the committee really got sloppy in giving Oral Roberts a 16-seed. To compound matters further, the Golden Eagles have drawn the weakest one-seed in Memphis. 16-seeds are 0-84 all-time. It’s safe to say Oral Roberts has a better that 1-in-84 chance of beating Memphis. Much better.
Log5 says that Oral Roberts has about a 1-in-8 chance of pulling off the unthinkable. Log5 doesn’t do so well with extreme matchups. It says Southern has a 1-in-40 chance of beating Duke, when Southern’s chances are truly much worse. But I’d give ORU a 1-in-15 chance of a win. Which means that hyping this game will result in me looking like an idiot 14 out of 15 times, but that’s what I am all about. I’d feel a lot more comfortable if ORU could play an effective zone, but since they’re coached by a Sutton, I’m guessing they won’t consider doing that. And their defensive stats suggest a team that exclusively plays man-to-man: low 3FGA/FGA, low A/FGM, high DR%.
But what the heck, I’ll throw my weight behind this game the remainder of the week. It’s a chance to witness history, if only a slim one.
I’m going to stick with Memphis in the first round; I have Gonzaga exacting revenge over the Tigers in the regional final. (Pomeroy’s computer says the Zags have no chance. Bah.) But I’ll be rooting for Oral Roberts, even if a win by the Golden Eagles would eclipse the Hampton game in terms of Becky-over-Brendan bragging rights, and I would never, ever, ever, ever hear the end of it. :)
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Categories: NCAA Basketball & Pools
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March 14th, 2006 at 12:45:51 pm
So a couple weeks ago, an away loss for USC against Oral Roberts is in the “Bad Loss” category, and now you’re saying ORU isn’t a legitimate 16 seed and has the potential to beat a team many consider to have the greatest depth and skill in the tournament?
March 14th, 2006 at 12:46:00 pm
I have a friend who went to ORU. ‘Tis an . . . interesting university.
Their chant is “Seed Faith!” Stomp, Stomp. “Seed Faith!” Stomp stomp. Don’t ask.
March 14th, 2006 at 12:46:36 pm
Also, I think you meant to say “Fairfield over North Carolina”, not Fairfield over Liberty.
March 14th, 2006 at 12:55:20 pm
Andrew, I’m not saying anything, I’m merely quoting Ken Pomeroy. Obviously, a column he wrote yesterday is not information that I had access to a couple weeks ago.
Thanks for the catch re: Liberty…
March 14th, 2006 at 12:59:38 pm
This is why women shouldnt be left nowhere near a poll.
March 14th, 2006 at 1:00:09 pm
Out of curiosity do you happen to know what the lowest seed to ever actually win the title is?
March 14th, 2006 at 1:09:35 pm
Well, Steven Colbert called Oral Roberts on last nights show, So Becky is not alone she has a fake crazy pundit on her side. But a fake crazy pundit that went five for five in Oscar predictions including crazy upset Crash for best picture.
March 14th, 2006 at 1:16:46 pm
David,
Villanova was an 8 in 1985.
Kansas (1988) and NC State (1983) were both 6’s.
I think those would have been the highest seeds.
Regarding Oral Roberts: them beating Memphis is still highly improbable. Fun to bet on for a free pool; you wouldn’t put next month’s salary on an Oral Roberts victory.
But why not. Its about damn time one of these 16s won.
March 14th, 2006 at 1:29:41 pm
Crash over Brokeback was actually not a real upset. There was plenty of press leading up to the Oscars questioning whether Brokeback had peaked too soon. I guess they were right.
March 14th, 2006 at 1:44:15 pm
According to FoxSports, the first rule of winning the office pool is “Don’t pick the No. 16 seeds”. Those and other tips at
http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/5407664?GT1=7934
I don’t know if the article is useful I barely even skimmed it. Personally, I just pick random teams (except for ‘Cuse). I usually don’t even remember who I picked and am pleasantly surprised when I find out a team I picked won.
March 14th, 2006 at 2:18:16 pm
Oral Roberts odds are 5 sextillion to 1 according to Sheridan odds. A sextillion, for the mathematics impaired, is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. It’s a trillion billion. It’s a lot. And yet, that’s the number Sheridan came up with for Oral Roberts.
March 14th, 2006 at 2:35:05 pm
This is why women shouldnt be left nowhere near a poll.
Actually, women have won my pools three times (twice it was the men’s pool that they won — that’s right, men are more dominant in the women’s pool than in the men’s), and women have come damn close to winning various other times. Leaving aside the inherent wrongness of the assumption that women never know anything about basketball (granted, more men than women follow sports, but that hardly translates into an absolute rule), there’s also so much luck involved in an NCAA pool that it’s entirely possible for someone who basically follows the seeds and picks a few upsets on the basis of a hunch to win, or at least do very well. Take my high-school yearbook teacher, Christine Perkins, who in 1999 very nearly won a pool of 63 people, despite being a self-confessed basketball neophyte, because she picked #10 Gonzaga to reach the Elite Eight and #4 Ohio State to reach the Final Four, both of which happened. She actually got 3 of the Final Four right. The only one she missed? Duke. If only she’d picked the Blue Devils to reach the Final Four, she would have won the pool. She picked them to lose in the regional final because she was “sick of Duke.” :) But overall, her picks were excellent. To you, the bad anti-Duke pick might indicate that she “shouldn’t be left nowhere near a poll,” but to me, her overall success indicates that you’re wrong. And one of the reasons I keep my pool free to enter is because I like to give the neophytes a chance to compete against the supposed experts without risking anything (because if they have to pay, they usually won’t even try). You’d be amazed how often the people who fancy themselves basketball experts do horribly, and the ones who don’t know anything get lucky and do well. That’s what makes March Madness so… mad. I mean, raise your hand if you consider yourself fairly knowledgeable about basketball. Now put your hand down unless you picked Hampton in 2001. Yeah, that’s what I thought. :)
Also, the person who has had the most consistent success in the entire history of my pools is a girl (er, woman) … Jenn Castelhano. She won two pools (one men’s, one women’s), and almost won two others. She is NOT a neophyte, but in fact a former basketball player and definitely a fan. Now contrast that with Kevin Hauschultz — sorry, Kevin — who is male, and also a basketball fan, but holds the record for most pools competed in without ever winning (though he’s come close a few times). Sorry but there is no gender requirement to win an NCAA pool. :)
March 14th, 2006 at 2:48:29 pm
Brendan, I just did that to get arouse of you.. Actually my College Football weekly polls I put out, Women win them all the time.
March 14th, 2006 at 2:50:18 pm
Ewww Nate, you’re trying to arouse Brendan?!?
March 14th, 2006 at 3:13:52 pm
I repeat my question from a previous comment, where the heck does this “Fredo� thing come from re: Boston College?
March 14th, 2006 at 3:14:59 pm
You cannot use any number with “sex” in it to describe anything involved with Oral Roberts. It’s in the student handbook of conduct.
March 14th, 2006 at 3:18:09 pm
To David: Explanation of Fredo
To Andrew and Nate: Women aren’t the only ones who can win NCAA Pools, but they are the only ones who can arouse me. :)
To Becky: Er, only one woman can arouse me, that is. ;)
March 14th, 2006 at 3:19:19 pm
Oy.
So the Tigers are the “weakest #1 seed” and ORU is seeded too low.
Isn’t that kinda like saying that’s the least dangerous great white shark I’ve ever seen? Why, he’s only gotten one of those hopeless surfers…
Give me a break. The Tigers have lost three games all year, have an RPI/SOS that is virtually second to none, and have shown consistently that they are one of the most talented teams in the country.
They never get the respect that they’ve earned, when they’ve earned it, and that hacks me off.
While 2006 may not be our year to win it all, I’m cautiously optimistic that we can get past Oral Roberts.
March 14th, 2006 at 3:19:30 pm
To Phead: No school with the word “oral” in its name gets to complain about being associated with sex. :)
March 14th, 2006 at 3:56:28 pm
no matter how hard they thump those Bibles, or talk about a 900 foot talk Jesus? (What would the plural of Jesus be anyway?)
March 14th, 2006 at 5:39:31 pm
Screw Duke . . . the academic champ is Bucknell (woohoo!):
http://www.deadspin.com/sports/college-basketball/your-academic-champ-bucknell-160372.php
March 14th, 2006 at 9:49:40 pm
To Becky: Er, only one woman can arouse me, that is. ;)
There goes whatever chance you had left of scoring with Britney.
March 14th, 2006 at 9:55:31 pm
There goes whatever chance you had left of scoring with Britney.
Reminds me of a Saturday Night Live Weekend Update punch line from years ago (I don’t remember the setup), that some celebrity was “making the transition from obscurity into oblivion.” :)