On the second-to-last day of the Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Epsilon has formed!
Epsilon is the 26th tropical storm of what the NHC calls “the apparently never ending 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.” (Recall that the previous single-season record was 21. We haven’t just broken it, we’ve smashed it.) It is also the third storm in the usually quiet month of November. Thankfully, it’s out over the open Atlantic, no threat to any land at this time.
The storm is expected to reach near-hurricane strength before becoming extratropical, according to the discussion:
EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER 25C SSTS… WHICH IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH A BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS… THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF SLOW DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. AS SUCH… INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER THAN USUAL. HOWEVER… IF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AROUND THE CENTER… THEN MORE AND EARLIER STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR THAN WHAT IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.
Ree-markable. The Storm Track has more, including satellite images.
Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm Delta have killed at least seven people on the Canary Islands:
A wind gust blew a 63-year-old man off the roof he was repairing on Fuerteventura Island, killing him overnight.Six African illegal immigrants drowned after winds caused their boat to capsize while attempting to reach Gran Canaria. Twelve of the immigrants remained missing while 32 were rescued on Monday.
The storm also caused injuries to several people.
The storm left the islands of La Palma, El Hierro, Gomera and part of Tenerife practically isolated. Hundreds of thousands remained without electricity, including more than 200,000 on Tenerife, 2,000 on Lanzarote, nearly 1,000 on Fuerteventura and hundreds on La Palma.
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Categories: T.S. Delta, Epsilon & Zeta
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November 29th, 2005 at 2:40:24 pm
Any mathematicians in the audience will enjoy the title of this post.
November 29th, 2005 at 4:56:47 pm
Aren’t records from the pre-satellite era near-worthless in comparison to modern records?
Someone should count how many tropical storms never reached land this year (or didn’t reach land while still a tropical storm) and therefore likely would not have been counted in the pre-satellite era.
I would wager that the result of storms this year would come out equal to or less than the previous record-setting year.
November 29th, 2005 at 4:59:59 pm
Not “near-worthless,” but they certainly aren’t as good. Short-lived tropical storms over open water are unlikely to have been noticed. But if they lasted long enough, a ship probably ran into them, and of course, if they hit land we know about them.
November 29th, 2005 at 5:30:40 pm
Note, for example, unnamed tropical storm #9 in 1933, which never hit land.
However, looking at the 1933 map, it does appear that storms which never hit land and never got west of around 60 degrees longitude are unlikely to have been noticed. That would rule out Lee, Maria, Epsilon, and possibly Philippe. Irene was long-lasting enough, and moved far enough west, that I think it would have been noticed — it would have run into a ship at some point.
Storms that hit (or came close enough to be felt in) contintental land: Arlene, Bret*, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Gert*, Jose*, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita, Stan, Tammy*, Vince, Wilma, Alpha, Beta, Gamma
Storms that didn’t hit continental land, but hit (or came close enough to be felt in) Bermuda or some other island(s): Franklin, Harvey, Nate, Delta
Storms that stayed out to sea: Irene, Lee, Maria, Philippe, Epsilon (so far)
I put asterisks next to Bret, Gert, Jose and Tammy because they were so weak and short-lived, it’s possible they wouldn’t have been recognized as tropical storms in the pre-satellite era. However, tropical storms number 10 and 21 in 1933 were quite similar in that regard… so I think it’s a fair estimate that at least 2, probably 3, if not all four of the asterisked storms would have been noticed in 1933.
It’s also possible that Vince and Delta, although they hit land, might have been looked at more as a North Atlantic gale than a tropical system, because their landfall locations were so damn bizarre. My guess: Vince doesn’t get counted, but Delta does (because of the damage and deaths it has caused, and because tropical storms in the Canary Islands are slightly less bizarre than tropical storms in Spain and Portugal).
So if we assume that Lee, Maria, Philippe, Vince and one of the quartet of short-lived weak landfalling tropical storms (Bret, Gert, Jose and Tammy) wouldn’t have been counted in 1933, we’d be at 20 right now, with Epsilon being the potential record-tying storm, if it ever gets to land. :)
November 29th, 2005 at 7:44:10 pm
Nice work.
I thought you may step up and do the leg work. I had forgotten those old tracking maps were so readily available. Thanks.
May next year set a record of any era for the fewest storms :)