Tropical Storm Delta’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph as of 4:00 AM. The Storm Track has more, including a rather amusing computer-model graphic. The track guidance is all over the map on this one.

Later this morning at 10:00 AM EST, Wethersfield (1-8) hosts Newington (7-2) in the annual Thanksgiving Day football game. As Josh commented, the mood will probably be somewhat more somber than usual, at least on the Newington side, as the town is in mourning this week over its double tragedy. I presume there will be a moment of silence, or some such tribute, to Brendan Horan and Ciara McDermott before the game.

Still, life goes on, and it’s a big game for the resurgent NHS football team, which is 16-4 in the past two seasons after going 13-89-2 from 1994 through 2003 (including 3-38-1 during my high-school years). The Indians have a chance today to start a winning streak against Wethersfield (which had beaten them ten years in a row until Newington broke the streak last Thanksgiving, a glorious event that Becky and I witnessed first-hand). More importantly, the Indians also have a chance to qualify for the state playoffs for the second straight year! But they’ll need some help. Unlike last year, when Newington knew coming into the Wethersfield game that they controlled their own playoff destiny, this year they need between one and four other Thanksgiving Day games to go their way.

Newington is currently #4 in the Class L standings, which is good news, because exactly four teams qualify for the playoffs. And with a win over Wethersfield, the Indians are guaranteed to finish ahead of #5 Hall (8-2) and everyone from #7 on down. However, there is a chance #6 Fitch (6-3) could catch them, in spite of having an extra loss, thanks to a strong schedule. The New London Day (free registration required) explains the situation:

Fitch stands a legitimate chance of still qualifying, despite its loss to Waterford last Friday.

The Falcons must defeat Ledyard. If that happens, they’ll have 1,050 points, tied with Newington for the final playoff position. Newington is expected to beat Wethersfield (1-9). Bonus points would then determine the final seed.

Newington has 20 guaranteed points from the outcomes of the Bristol Eastern/Bristol Central and Platt/Maloney games (Newington has defeated all four schools). It could earn 20 more if E.O. Smith defeats Windham and Fermi (1-8) defeats Enfield (1-8).

Fitch has no guaranteed points, but could amass 50 if NFA defeats New London, Tourtellotte defeats Bacon, Griswold defeats Plainfield, Windham defeats E.O. Smith and East Lyme defeats Waterford.

The Day also notes that “Fitch…holds the tiebreaker over Newington,” so if the Indians and Falcons finish with the same number of points, the Falcons go to the playoffs. D’oh!

The easiest way for Newington to qualify is for Ledyard (7-2) to defeat Fitch (6-3). Ledyard will have plenty of motivation to play hard; they’re ranked #5 in Class M, so they too are trying to earn a playoff spot. Also, the game is at Ledyard.

However, if Fitch wins, the biggest game to watch will be E.O. Smith (6-3) vs. Windham (7-2), since it involves a “swing” of 20 bonus points: 10 to Newington if E.O. Smith wins, 10 to Fitch if Windham wins.

Basically, assuming Newington beats Wethersfield and Fitch beats Ledyard, it goes like this. If E.O. Smith beats Windham, Newington needs two of the following five things to happen:

Fermi (1-8) beats Enfield (1-8)
New London (8-1) beats NFA (7-2)
Bacon Academy (5-4) beats Tourtellotte (2-7)
Plainfield (6-3) beats Griswold (3-6)
Waterford (5-4) beats East Lyme (6-3)

On the other hand, if Windham beats E.O. Smith, Newington needs four of the five above-listed things to happen.

All of the games are at 10:00 AM, except for the E.O. Smith-Windham game, which is at 10:15. The “pro-Newington” team is at home in all cases, except for New London-NFA and Plainfield-Griswold. Er, and Newington-Wethersfield. :)

Ties are also possible; a tie is essentially “half” a win for bonus-point purposes, but I’m not going to hurt my brain doing the math on scenarios involving ties. Hopefully Ledyard beats Fitch and Newington doesn’t have to worry about any of this crap. :)

Incidentally, in case you were wondering, there is no chance of Newington passing any of the top three teams. #1 Staples, #2 Masuk and #3 Ridgefield have already clinched their playoff berths. There is a remote chance that Newington could finish tied with Ridgefield in terms of points, but Ridgefield owns the tiebreaker.

If Newington does qualify for the #4 spot, they will be “rewarded” with a semifinal game Tuesday at undefeated Staples — the same team that ended their season last year. The Wreckers (9-0) are ranked #1 in the entire state, and they will be the #1 seed in Class L even if they lose today to Greenwich (8-1, #5 in Class LL, #6 in the state).

The championship game is next Saturday, Dec. 3.

Here is the CIAC scoreboard of Thanksgiving games throughout Connecticut.

Oral Roberts 68, USC 48, final.

Wow. That’s really kinda embarrassing.

On the bright side, UCLA lost too. :) Hey, we gotta take what good news we can get…

My keyboard glows in the dark!! :) In other news… UConn 65, Gonzaga 63, final. Boo! And USC is losing to Oral Roberts…

A 105 pound woman from Virginia named Sonya Thomas has won the world turkey-eating title by consuming a 10 pound turkey in 12 minutes. (I suppose that now makes her a 115 pound woman?) Quoting from the article (and get your minds out of the gutter):

The smallest in the field, Thomas put her victory down to “swallowing fast.”

“It was very dry and the skin was very dry,” said Thomas, holding her trophy, a roasting pan, over her head. “I just tried to eat fast.”

…

Thomas, who collected $2,500 in prize money, has also dominated her opponents in egg, cheesecake, baked bean, crab-cake, meatball, and fruit-cake eating contests.

Happy Thanksgiving.

[I’m thinking about printing the above article and posting it in the kitchen tomorrow. :)]

Posted by Brian (Briandot)

I have arrived in Phoenix. UConn and Gonzaga are tied, 39 to 39 with 15:00 left. The USC vs. Oral Roberts game on ESPN2 (a rare nationally televised contest for the sucky Trojan basketball team) begins shortly.

Tropical Storm Delta has formed southwest of the Azores, the 25th (and maybe, finally, the last?) tropical storm of the incredible 2005 season. Delta has 60 mph winds and could become a hurricane. (!!!)

Busiest travel day of the year? Yup. Phoenix, here I come!

Ladies and gentlemen, meet my new baby. :)

With seven days left in the Atlantic hurricane season, could Tropical Storm Delta (yes, Delta comes after Gamma in the Greek alphabet) be imminent?

A STRONG AND LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRALATLANTIC CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER WARMER WATER… AND IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

The Storm Track has a satellite picture.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gamma’s death toll is at 32 and rising.

It seems even Mother Nature is in mourning for Brendan Horan and Ciara McDermott:

The dreary weather Tuesday amplified the sense of loss in Newington, where McDermott was the high school’s resource officer and was most recently helping students there deal with the death of classmate Brendan Horan, 17, who was killed in an ATV accident Friday.

Makeshift memorials for McDermott and Horan that were left in the high school parking lot were drenched in the rain. Students had written on white bed sheets and hung them on a chain-link fence, but many of the messages written in red ink bled down the wet fabric and faded in the wintry drizzle.

The same article also notes that NHS students are getting fed up with all the media attention that the dual tragedy is causing:

Students who congregated around the memorials at the high school were angry and weary of the media attention surrounding the two deaths. A group of a dozen boys who stood in the rain over a cross and a bouquet of flowers asked to be left alone. They said the mood inside the school was somber and that they wanted the cameras and reporters to go away so they could grieve in peace.

“We don’t have anything to say,” one student said.

When a television crew tried to film the group from a nearby sidewalk, the mournful boys immediately dispersed. McDermott had been providing grief counseling to students devastated by the death of Horan, said Vinny Bonavita, 15, a sophomore at the school. Bonavita said that Horan was his friend and that he also knew McDermott from last year, when she helped guide him through troubled times.

“She was helping to comfort us,” he said. “People are angry. The press keeps coming around and asking us questions. What more do you want? He’s gone. She’s gone. What else is there to say?”

That’s one thing we didn’t have to deal with, for the most part, while mourning Newington’s other dual November tragedy, eight years ago. Both of the 1997 deaths were of students — not of a student and a cop — so the media attention was less intense.

Anyway, the students’ feelings are understandable. Of course, the reporters’ actions are understandable too. This is simply one of those situations that just sucks.

I’ve been hearing a lot of hubris about how Brady Quinn is a great quarterback and how ND has such an amazing team this year and I’m finally declaring SHENANIGANS! SHENANIGANS!

Notre Dame is an inconsistent team with a few good players and a stellar coach. It has played well against a mediocre schedule and suddenly, the rabid ran base thinks the glory days of national championships are back. They aren’t. Notre Dame does not deserve to be #6 in the AP poll and I’ll show you why. (I’m using the teams ranked 1-20, just FYI. Sorry Wisconsin fans.)

Notre Dame is #6, with a 8-2 record. They lost to unranked MSU and #1 USC. They have not beaten any teams in the top 20 although they have beaten the illustrious unranked squads of Navy, Washington, Syracuse and BYU. Therefore, half of ND’s wins come from teams that can barely stand, let alone play football.

I can’t believe I’m about to argue on behalf of Ohio St., but the truth compels me. Ohio St. is 9-2. They lost to #2 Texas and #4 Penn St.. While they also have not beaten any teams in the top 20, they did beat MSU. Clearly, Ohio St. should be ranked ahead of ND. They soundly defeated their opponents and like ND lost by 3 to USC, Ohio St lost to Texas by 3. They lost to #4 Penn St. by 7. Close games. And while Brendan might argue about margins of victory, Ohio St and ND have similar spreads. Fact is, Ohio St. has played better than ND has against a similar schedule. Bump ND down to #7.

More controversially, I believe that Oregon should also be bumped ahead of ND in the standings. Oregon may have played teams like AZ and Washington, but uh, those are balanced by ND’s killer opponents in Syracuse and Washington. Oregon has only lost one game, to #1 USC. They average 36.4 pts a game to ND’s 38.2 and while they had some closer games, they still won. Most importantly, however, is the fact that Oregon, unlike Ohio St. or ND has beaten a top 20 team in #16 Fresno State. Bump ND down to #8.

Auburn also deserves a slot ahead of ND. They are 9-2 with losses to #20 Georgia Tech and #3 LSU. Like Ohio St., Auburn lost these contests in close matches, 7 pts to Georgia Tech and 3 pts to LSU. More importantly, however, is the fact that Auburn defeated #13 Georgia and #14 Alabama. Say what you will about the SEC being a weak conference, but it is indisputable that Auburn’s schedule is more difficult that Notre Dame’s schedule. Auburn’s margins of victory were also more impressive than Notre Dame’s, including a 63-3 slaughter of Ball St. Bump ND to #9.

Miami, currently #10 in the AP poll, poses a minor dilemma. Like ND, they are 8-2. However, their two losses both come to teams in the top 25, #20 Georgia Tech by 4 and #23 Florida St. by 3. While Miami’s schedule is undeniably weak, they did pull a stunning upset of #5 Virginia Tech, a victory that I believe merits their placement above ND. I realize that ND’s stregnth of schedule is to some extent, out of their hands, but even when they had the opportunity to show their skills, they’ve failed to do so. In their close win over #23 Michigan, the best team they’ve played aside from USC, the offense produced a paltry 17 points, compared to their season average of 38.2 points per game. In contrast, the fewest points Oregon’s offense put up in a victorious battle was 27. Regardless, Miami’s victory over a top notch team puts them ahead of ND in my book. Sure, ND almost beat USC, but almost only counts in uh, well, not football. Just ask Scott Norwood and then bump ND to #10.

Now, let’s talk about UCLA. The Bruins are 9-1 and their only loss comes from one of the more pathetic teams in football, the Arizona Wildcats. Of course, the Wildcats did play their best game of the season against the Bruins. But it’s still pathetic. In determining the rankings, I had to ponder if losing to Arizona is more pathetic than losing to MSU. And here’s what I found. Arizona is 3-7, but two of their losses are to top 15 teams like #1 USC and #8 Oregon. They also beat #11 UCLA. Okay. Michigan St. lost to #22 Michigan, #7 Ohio St. and #4 Penn St. they beat #6 Notre Dame. In my mind, this is a close call. UCLA’s quarterback, Drew Olson, is just as good as, if not better than, Brady Quinn. Maurice Drew makes Darius Walker look like he’s an old man with knee problems. Both teams have stars amidst mediocrity. In the end, it comes down to the coaching and Charlie Weis beats Karl Dorrell’s ass any day. ND wins this match up to remain at #10.

So, how would I bump ND out of the top 10? In my mind, I have two options: Fresno St. and Louisville. Personally, just from watching both ND and Fresno St. play the game, I think Fresno has the more talented team. Fresno is 8-2, with losses to #8 Oregon and #1 USC. Like Notre Dame, however, they haven’t really beaten anyone respectable. Unlike Notre Dame, Fresno St. has no snarling fan base, no hype and no legendary past to buoy their position in the standings. But if I were a betting woman, I’d put my money on Fresno St.. They average 40.4 pts/game to ND’s 38.2. They play a fast running game and their passing is excellent. Sure, their running defense clearly needs work, but no one on ND can exploit the holes in their D like Reggie Bush did. Point blank, on any given Sunday, I think Fresno is miraculously a better team.

If I didn’t put Fresno on top of ND, I would seriously consider putting Louisville or Texas Tech on top. Louisville is 7-2, averages 47.3 pts/game and while it lost to S. Florida much like ND lost to MSU, it also lost to #2 Texas. More illuminating is the fact that both ND and Louisville played Pittsburgh, with a 42-21 and a 42-20 final, respectively. These teams could potentially create a good match up.

But really, I think that 9-2 Texas Tech should be ranked above ND. They have losses to #2 Texas and Oklahoma State. They have a larger margin of victory on average than ND does and when push comes to shove, I think they have a more talented team. Cory Hodges could whoop Brady Quinn any day. He leads college football in passing yardage with over 4,000 yards, compared to Quinn, who has yet to reach 2500. Ultimately, if Fresno didn’t bump ND out of the top 10, Texas Tech should.

The Irish do have a good team this year, but it is unrealistic to expect a championship team from a transition year. While I hope that the Irish do make it into the Fiesta Bowl, I don’t think that they have the talent to beat a team like Ohio St. They do, however, have Charlie Weis and he can make midgets seem like mountains. Hopefully, with a few years of recruiting, he won’t have to do that anymore.

Anyway, the Irish are ranked far too high and the reason for it has nothing to do with the players and everything to do with hype and circumstance. I await an Irish team that truly deserves to sit in the middle of the top 10.

Brendan told me to say that if I’m wrong and the Irish win the Fiesta Bowl or something, then I have to come on here and sing their praises. So if I’ve raised your hackles, wait until then to make fun of me. :)

I am en route to Chicago, and once again the Midwest is sending me off with a snowy farewell. :) In other news, congratulations to the professors Bellia, whose second child, Mary Elizabeth (Molly), arrived yesterday around 6pm, weighing 8 lbs. 8 oz.

Well, my Cyberlaw exam went okay, I think. Not the highlight of my academic career, but not the disaster I feared, either. All things considered, I’m pleased… I think. (I won’t know for sure till I get my grade!)

At any rate, I’m definitely relieved that it’s over. I am now finished with two of my six classes: Moot Court and Cyberlaw. That leaves “only” Freedom of Speech, Federal Criminal Practice, Biodiversity and the Law, and Patent Law to occupy my time for the next few weeks. Well, plus my part-time job… and the blog… and last-minute preparations for the wedding… okay, yeah, so I’m still going to be plenty busy. :)

Anyway, I’m leaving for Phoenix later today for Thanksgiving. Have a great holiday, everyone!

P.S. I may be buying a new laptop, either tomorrow in Chicago or this weekend in Phoenix. The insurance will eventually replace my stolen one, but that’ll take a while, and anyway I’ve been planning for some time to get a new 15-incher, with the old plan being that Becky would inherit my old laptop; now, instead, she’ll inherit the new laptop that the insurance company eventually buys me. (Her iBook is on its last legs.) Under the circumstances, buying now rather than later makes sense, I think. The two of us competing over one laptop for weeks or months is a recipe for disaster, and the chaos in my digital world veritably cries out to be settled. And since either way I’m going to be paying for my new laptop by taking out an Apple Instant Loan, to be paid off in full this summer (via my associateship), it doesn’t seem like it makes much difference whether I buy in November, December, January, or whatever. So, I might as well just go ahead and buy now, methinks. Anyway, stay tuned. I’ll keep y’all abreast of the latest computer-related developments. :)

Here is the Hartford Courant article about the tragic, violent death of Newington police officer Ciara McDermott, who was murdered Monday by her ex-boyfriend, also a cop. The article notes the NHS connection:

McDermott was the school resource officer in Newington. She was just at Newington High School Monday to provide grief counseling to students mourning the death of Brendan Horan, 17, a high school senior who died Friday night in an all-terrain vehicle accident. Students gathered late Monday to hold a vigil to remember Horan, but it also turned into a memorial for McDermott. …

Students who gathered in a Newington High School parking lot late Monday were saddened and shocked, and visibly upset that instead of mourning just one, they were mourning two.

“I just talked to her today and she told me I could call her anytime,” said Gina Nardi, a junior at the school who had been one of many students to meet with McDermott following Horan’s accident.

“I feel like this is not real,” said Nicole Dehaas, a sophomore at the school who, like many others, struggled not to cry as they hugged other students who arrived at the parking lot. “We were supposed to be here to mourn Brendan, now we are mourning Officer McDermott too.”

“Two lives lost in three days, this is not good,” Nardi said.

When word of McDermott’s death circulated among the group, students spray painted a white bed sheet with a memorial message in her honor and hung it on a chain link fence next to another that hung in Horan’s memory.

“Mcdermott R.I.P.,” it read. “We [love] you. 11-21-05.”

Here’s another story on the NHS reaction, and here’s another, including a quote from the principal:

“We’re a mess,” says Principal Bill Collins. “Were not gonna deny that. We got a lot of work to do. Healing is a long process, but we’ll get through it.”

As I noted yesterday, this is not the first time NHS has been “a mess” because of dual tragedies in the month of November. On Nov. 18 and 19, 1997, junior Bob Aniello and freshman Jen Partridge died, stunning the school community and creating the sense that a black cloud had descended on the high school. Eight years later, these tragedies — on Nov. 18 and 21, 2005 — are inspiring similar emotions.

As if that weren’t enough, NHS Class of 1996 grad Jeffrey Grubin points out via e-mail that still another recent Newington tragedy occurred in mid-November, when well-loved ‘96 grad Christine Guyon, then a student at UConn, was hit and killed by a car on Nov. 15, 1999. Her funeral was on Nov. 19 — two years to the day after Jen Partidge’s death — and Jeffrey says he remembers seeing a three kids sitting at Jen’s gravesite as he was leaving Christine’s service.

November has not been kind to Newington High.

P.S. The official NHS homepage has several links related to Brendan Horan’s death, including a letter to parents (PDF). There’s nothing yet specifically about Officer McDermott, but the town website has this and this.

P.P.S. WFSB has this article, and also invites readers to send in their memories of Officer McDermott.