LSU’s win over Alabama on Saturday means the Crimson Tide are no longer in the SEC West driver’s seat, but it may not keep them out of the BCS — instead, it may mean Oregon will go to the Holiday Bowl instead of the Fiesta Bowl, writes Stewart Mandel:

Alabama’s loss to LSU shook up this week’s projections — at the expense of Oregon. Last week, I had a Penn State-Oregon Fiesta Bowl, but if the Crimson Tide finish with one loss but don’t win the SEC, I’d imagine the Fiesta will jump at the chance to stage a Notre Dame-Alabama matchup. The Orange would then grab Penn State to face Miami in an equally glamorous showdown, thus squeezing the one-loss Ducks out of the BCS.

If the Tide loses to Auburn on Saturday, however, it’s hard to imagine the Fiesta taking a team that ended its season on a two-game losing streak. In that event, the Fiesta’s doors would open back up to the Ducks or Ohio State (if it beats Michigan next week).

It should be noted that Mandel is assuming LSU will beat Ole Miss and Arkansas — probably a safe bet. But if LSU loses either of those games, and Alabama beats Auburn, the Tide would win the SEC West in spite of their loss to LSU, and would go to the SEC championship game on Dec. 3 against Georgia (or South Carolina). In that case, it’s probably Sugar Bowl or nothing for the Tide, since the Fiesta Bowl is unlikely to pick a two-loss team that finished the season with a defeat. So that scenario, too, would bring Oregon or Ohio State back into the BCS picture.

All of which is another way of saying that those three games — LSU vs. Ole Miss, LSU vs. Arkansas, and the Alabama-Auburn “Iron Bowl” — are worth about $13 million to the SEC (and, conversely, to either the Pac 10 or Big Ten). They’re also probably worth a chunk of change to Gold Canyon Golf Resort, which can expect to have a greater number of guests for the Loy-Zak wedding if Notre Dame goes to the Fiesta Bowl. :)

P.S. Of course, all of the above scenarios also assume that USC and Texas win out. If either the Trojans or the Longhorns stumble, all current BCS projections go out the window. USC-Miami in the Rose Bowl, Notre Dame-Alabama in the Orange Bowl, and Colorado-Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl? Texas-Miami in the Rose Bowl, Penn State-Alabama in the Orange Bowl, and Notre Dame-USC in the Fiesta Bowl? USC-Penn State in the Rose Bowl, Florida State-Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl, and Alabama-Colorado in the Fiesta Bowl? All sorts of craziness becomes possible if the top teams lose unexpectedly.