The satellite clearly shows that Wilma is weakening — particularly her west side, the portion already over land — as she moves ashore on the mainland of the Yucatan Peninsula. However, as of 11:00 PM EDT, the intensity is being held at 140 mph, not because the NHC is denying that weakening is occurring but because surface observations “suggest the possibility that Wilma might have been a little stronger than [140 mph] this afternoon,” according to the discussion. Yikes. Cozumel is not going to be a pretty picture when it comes time to assess the damage. And now Cancun is getting battered by the deadly right-front quadrant of what is still a solid Category 4 hurricane.

Bryan Woods at The Storm Track writes: “Right now I am at a loss for words to express what must be happening in Cancun. … A surface station on Cancun reported a wind gust to 133 mph before all contact was lost. The devastation there must be staggering. Wilma remains a very strong hurricane capable of doing tremendous damage. The center is barely crawling to the north-northwest at 3 mph. With this long of a duration, it’s hard to imagine what will be left in Cancun.”

Or in Cozumel. I doubt the blog InCozumel will be able to post anything anytime soon, but when they do, it will surely be interesting.

The Cancun radar is offline, but you can view the latest satellite here, or a wider view here… or you can see zoomable satellite views here. And, for an archived, high-resolution visible image of Wilma approaching Cozumel, click here.

Joe Bastardi writes:

Though Wilma remains a strong category 4 hurricane, it is showing signs of weakening because much of its circulation is now over land. However, the northeastern Yucatan is relatively flat, and some of Wilma’s cloud mass will remain close to water both east and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Therefore, the hurricane will probably weaken to a category 3 hurricane during the early morning hours of Saturday, but further weakening will depend on how much of the hurricane’s circulation moves over land and for how long. Current thinking is that Wilma will stay in contact with land through Saturday night, then start to pull away to the northeast and back over water Sunday morning, however, the track has been somewhat further north Friday evening than expected, and so may emerge into the Gulf of Mexico sooner than expected.

Regarding the threat to Florida, the discussion says:

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WILMA WILL CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 60-72 HR…ALTHOUGH THE NOGAPS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER. HOWEVER…THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHICH PART OF FLORIDA THE CENTER WILL CROSS…WITH THE GFDL AND GFS POINTING MORE NORTHWARD TOWARDS CHARLOTTE HARBOR…AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF POINTING MORE TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 96 HR…AND LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS FLORIDA…ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA AND MAKE APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE FIRST QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL WILMA BE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO… A QUESTION COMPLICATED BY THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IT IS UNDERGOING AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LESS TIME OVER YUCATAN THAN EARLIER…THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS WILMA EMERGING OVER THE GULF AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ONCE OVER THE GULF…THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM 24-48 HR FOR WILMA TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT. AFTER 48 HR…THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WILMA…WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WILMA TO REACH 95 KT BEFORE THE SHEAR HITS…AND IT WILL PROBABLY REACH FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. WILMA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING AFTER AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA…BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 96-120 HR.

Dr. Jeff Masters writes:

Wilma is a huge storm, and will be able to maintain much of her strength if she remains over land only 36 hours or less. … I’d give Wilma a 20% chance of arriving on the Florida west coast as a Category 3 or higher storm, 40% as a Category 2, 30% as a Category 1, and 10% as a tropical storm. On Florida’s east coast, knock these value down by half a Category (10 - 15 mph). The region of Florida most at risk is no clearer than three days ago, and could still be anywhere from the Keys to middle of the state.

The greatest threat to Florida will be from Wilma’s storm surge and winds, since she will be moving too fast to dump more than 5 - 10 inches of rain. The rain will be concentrated on the north side of the hurricane, since there will be some cold air there that will trigger more condensation. Areas to the north of the eye’s passage will see winds a full Category–25 to 30 mph–lower than those on the south. This is because the storm’s high rate of forward motion, near 25 - 30 mph, will add to the windspeeds seen on the south side of the Wilma’s counterclockwise rotation, and subtract on the north side. Storm surges tend to be worse with large and faster moving hurricanes, so I would expect a storm surge higher than average on the west coast of Florida. If Wilma is a Category 2 hurricane at landfall, expect a storm surge characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. Storm surge flooding should be only 2 - 4 feet on the east coast of Florida, and wind damage will be the main threat there. Since the storm will be moving so fast, the duration of hurricane force winds will be just a few hours.