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October 2005
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Wilma second only to Katrina?
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 8:50 pm

Dr. Jeff Masters writes:

Downtown Clewiston, next to Lake Okeechobee, suffered extensive damage. Up to 35% of the land area of Key West suffered inundation from Wilma’s storm surge. The damage to the Keys and the rest of Florida is still unclear, but preliminary estimates of the total insured plus uninsured damage are $4 - $18 billion. It is also too early to gauge Wilma’s impact on Mexico. Between 30-40% of the population in Cancun has suffered some damage to their housing. Reports are not in yet from the hardest hit areas, Cozumel and Playa del Carmen, which is a bad sign. Wilma caused heavy damage in Havana, where huge waves pushed flood waters up to four blocks inland, and flooded the city up to three feet deep. Damage to Haiti, Jamaica, Honduras, and Belize was also substantial. Including the damage done to Mexico and the rest of the Caribbean, Wilma will probably be the second most costly hurricane of all time, next to Katrina.

Wow.


God, some people are idiots
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 8:14 pm

Here’s what I’m getting from this article: Key West residents are told to evacuate. 90% of them don’t. They wake up and are “surprised” to see that their low-lying, hurricane-vulnerable island is suffering serious flooding, with water “seeping into homes owners had thought would never flood.” (Those owners were delusional.) But then the flood waters recede, they are spared major structural damage, and by the end of the day, some of them feel “vindicated for staying in the defiance of orders to evacuate.” Resident Fran Masat, for example, declares, “If it doesn’t get any worse than this, there’s no point in leaving.”

Umm, let’s see… a minimal Category 3 passing so far to your north that only the outer edges of the eyewall hit you… and you don’t think it could “get any worse than this”? Are you JOKING?!? Yeah, it could get A LOT worse than that. A direct hit by a Cat. 4 or 5, for example, would flood the entire island and, oh I don’t know, KILL YOU. And guess what? Next time the evacuation order comes — next time, every time — you’ll have to decide whether to leave before you know for sure whether it will “get any worse than this.”

Have we learned nothing from Katrina? Argh!!! When you’re told to leave, you LEAVE!!!

UPDATE: Max Mayfield shares my frustration:

While he fears for the safety of those who ignored warnings to evacuate the Florida Keys as Wilma by bore down, Mayfield is perplexed they weren’t heeded.

“I’m really annoyed by that,” he said just as the initial damage reports from Monroe County trickled in.

“People are calling to be rescued from the rising waters,” Mayfield said. “You can’t get people (rescuers) out there right now.”


Quick! Somebody call George Clooney!
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 7:59 pm

The Storm Track has more on the “Wilmalpha Nor’easter,” or “Perfect Storm II,” or whatever you want to call it. TWC now has a reporter in eastern Massachusetts, and he’s invoking the spectre of Hurricane Grace and the Perfect Storm.

Below: the current surface map and the forecasts for tomorrow morning, midday and evening:

Good thing Taunton built a new dam!


Wilmalpha Nor’easter update
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 7:14 pm

I may be a “self-described weather nerd,” but that doesn’t mean I know everything about the weather. Sometimes, I’m flat wrong! In comments, Bryan Woods corrects me about Wilma, Alpha and the developing Nor’easter:

ROGER: Any chances Wilma and Alpha collide and regress their course back to land?

ME: No. First of all, Alpha isn’t strong enough to really “collide” with Wilma — it will simply be sucked into the much larger, stronger storm’s circulation. Second of all, neither of them are strong enough (or, more precisely, neither has a strong enough upper-level high overhead) to resist the pull of the massive trough of low pressure that’s dragging them northward. Their fates are sealed.

BRYAN: Brendan, what you said about the storms is not 100% true. The important thing to realize is that Wilma is feeding moisture to spawn this huge Nor’Easter near New England. When Nor’Easters bomb out like this, they very often retrograde back towards the coast. We saw that happen with the Halloween Storm of 1991 (aka “The Perfect Storm”) when Hurricane Grace ran into a trough much like this one (it is fairly common in the autumn). As it is, the models are forecasting the new low to basically stall out near Long Island while Wilma continues on to the northeast. If you think in the LaGrangian frame of reference (in reference to the dominant flow) this storm will actually be backing up with respect to the flow to maintain its position in the Eulerian frame (with respect to the ground). The difference between this stationary ‘motion’ and retrograding towards the coast is very little. This new low could very well backup. Also, don’t discount dissipated systems like Alpha. Had Wilma not been around, the positive vorticity advection associated with Alpha could have very well spawned a Nor’Easter when it reached the trough over the US and was pushed out over the boundary between the Gulf Stream and Labrador Fetch. That place is a train wreck waiting to happen in the autumn.

See, now I just learned something new there, and y’all learned it along with me. God bless the Internet! :)

In other news, maybe I shouldn’t have backed off my Perfect Storm II prediction. An hour or two ago, I heard one of the on-camera meteorologists on The Weather Channel mention something about the developing Nor’easter being “like the perfect storm.”


Our dog is anorexic!
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 5:58 pm

So, we got Robbie back today from the kennel where we boarded him over Fall Break — and he’s randomly all skinny! I don’t know if he was scared of the other dogs and wouldn’t eat or what, but his spine and ribcage (which are always somewhat visible because greyhounds are naturally thin) are definitely way more prominent than before. Harumph!

Oh well, I’m sure he’ll be OK; we’ll just have to fatten him up with dog food and peanut butter. :) But now I’m worried about boarding him over winter break when we’re in Arizona and Hawaii! :(

P.S. The cats, on the other hand, are fat and happy as ever. :)


Alpha is dead, long live Alpha
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 5:04 pm

Tropical Depression Alpha is now just a trough of low pressure speeding north-northeast alongside Hurricane Wilma.

The discussion says:

VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT ALPHA NO LONGER HAS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER…A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS…IS MOVING 025/25 AND WILL CONTINUE A RAPID NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY HURRICANE WILMA IN 12-24 HR.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

So passes the first-ever tropical cyclone named after a letter of the Greek alphabet.

P.S. And here I hoped it would somehow stick around long enough to co-exist with “Omega.” :)

P.P.S. Wilma, meanwhile, is still strengthening. She’s now up to 120 mph. She’s also still accelerating — now moving northeast at 37 mph! And according to the discussion, she could last longer than expected:

WHEN WILMA TRANSFORMS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT CERTAIN. IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO KEEP FROM BECOMING TOO ENTANGLED WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR 24 HOURS OR MORE WHILE RUNNING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. WILMA HAS BEEN RATHER RESISTANT TODAY IN ALLOWING ITS INNER CORE TO BE DISRUPTED…AND IT COULD MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HOLD ON TO HURRICANE STATUS WELL INTO TOMORROW. SHORTLY THEREAFTER IT SHOULD MAKE THE TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL…BUT REGARDLESS OF WHEN THAT DESIGNATION IS MADE…A LARGE AND STRONG CYCLONE WILL TRAVERSE THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.


Patrick alleges corruption at the SBPD
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 3:49 pm

[UPDATE: As it turns out, things were not what they seemed. I’m leaving this post up (for the moment, anyway) for the sake of the historical record, but it turns out the officer was not drunk, but rather was having a stroke. Please read Patrick’s final update to understand what actually happened.]

Fellow 2L Patrick is going public with an unfortunate and distressing run-in that he had over the weekend with the South Bend Police Department. Apparently WNDU and the South Bend Tribune are both reporting on the story. I’ll link to their coverage when it’s available, but for now, here is Patrick’s full, first-person account, quoted verbatim from his e-mail to me:

Last year on my blog, I detailed an encounter with a less than reputable police officer who undermined my trust for local law enforcement after misplacing my insurance and registration card. On Saturday, that trust was further eroded through unfathomably shoddy police work following an accident in which I was struck, head on, by an intoxicated motorist.

After Notre Dame’s convincing victory, I was driving two of my college buddies to the South Bend airport to catch the South Shore Line back to Chicago. Because of game traffic, we were redirected east to Ironwood. I proceeded [south] to McKinley and turned right. After completing my turn, I noticed an oncoming car, left of center, headed directly toward me from a distance of about 75 meters. I began honking, pulled as far right as I could, and watched helplessly as he plowed his Dodge Caravan into my car. Fortunately, he was only traveling 30 miles per hour, and no one was injured.

My initial reaction was shock. Why the hell would someone be driving on the left side of the road? Why wouldn’t he swerve to miss an oncoming car? These were certainly not the actions of a person of sound mind. Either he was incredibly stupid, or he was under the influence of some substance. I assumed the latter.

My suspicions were only confirmed after he exited his car. He stumbled toward my car as I rolled down my window.

“Did I hit ya?” he stammered.

“Um, yeah, ya did,” I responded.

His speech was slurred, his eyes glossy, and he didn’t even know that he’d hit me. Unbelievable! The next few minutes were a blur. One of my friends called the police.

I struggled to get out of my car because the driver’s side door was wedged shut. The children (mostly teenagers) in his car gave him chewing gum to cover his breath. His wife showed up in a Cadillac accompanied by his son. He continued to stumble around the scene of the accident. A witness to the accident approached me and my friends and said the man had been “driving left of center for several blocks.”

Finally, a police officer arrived. Before I could say anything, the drunk man’s wife shouted, “This is my husband, former chief of police for 23 years.”

Son of a BITCH! I said to myself. This guy is getting off the hook!

The officer responded, “Ma’am, let me do my job and investigate the scene.”

Next thing I know the conversation turned into a shouting match between the officer and the driver’s wife and son. It was like a scene out of COPS. Meanwhile, my friends, the witness, and I are twiddling our thumbs.

Another officer arrived.

“This is my husband, former chief of police for 23 years!” The woman just wouldn’t shut up.

Things finally quieted down. The first officer asked for my side of the story and then asked if I’d had anything to drink that day.

“I had two beers at 10 o’clock this morning before the game,” I said (It was now 7:00 p.m.).

He found no need to check my sobriety, and instead took our licenses, registrations, and insurance information and went into his car to write the accident report. He then asked the witness for her version of events. The second officer just stood outside the cruiser doing nothing while the drunk man simply wandered around the scene.

Why aren’t they giving this man a sobriety test? I wondered.

The witness approached me and said that the officers were talking about how drunk the man was. “The officers were saying his eyes are glossy and that his speech is slurred,” she said, “Don’t worry, he’s going to jail.” I thanked her and she left.

Minutes passed. Again, no sobriety test. What the f*#@!!!

I calmly approached the second officer. This is a paraphrased version of our exchange:

“Excuse me sir,” I said, “Why isn’t a sobriety test being administered to this man?”

“He’s not drunk,” the officer replied.

“Sir, I beg your pardon,” I said, “but I watched him stumble out of his car and have heard him speak. He is NOT sober.”

The officer responded, “I’ve been on the force for 7 years. I know when a person is drunk. I’ve been talking to him for 15 minutes. There is no alcohol on his breath and he’s speaking perfectly clearly.”

I replied, “The witness informed us that you just stated that the opposite is true. Why are you changing your story?”

“I don’t know what you’re talking about,” he said.

Shocked, I replied, “Sir, I watched his kids giving him gum to cover his breath. I watched his daughter get in the driver’s seat to act as if she were the one driving. The man was driving on the wrong side of the road, didn’t try to avoid me, and then didn’t even know that he’d hit me! Don’t you think that sounds a little suspicious?”

The officer responded, “His wife said that she gave him some medicine before he left their house. It probably affected him.”

“So it’s ok to drive while intoxicated by a substance other than alcohol?” I asked.

“No,” he replied, “She said it was cough syrup. That wouldn’t make him drunk.”

“Sir,” I stated, “You can definitely become drunk off of cough syrup.”

“Quit pretending that you know what you’re talking about, Mr. Science Genius,” he said, “I’m the police officer, and I know about these things.”

Again shocked, I said, “Sir, there is no need to condescend. I just find it incredibly troubling that you won’t give this man a sobriety test.”

“Why do you care?” he asked, “He’s clearly at fault here and his insurance will pay for the damage to your car.”

“Sir,” I said, noticeably taken aback, “I’m more concerned about the safety of others on the road. This man is clearly drunk. You have a responsibility to give him a sobriety test.”

The other officer then came out of his car, interrupted us, and handed me my license and info.

“You need to leave…now,” the second officer said.

Incensed, I got into my barely-drivable car, and left. I called my parents and aunt (a prosecutor). They advised me to go down to the police station and file a complaint. I tried to do just that, but the level of corruption in the SBPD only became more visible. When I arrived, the receptionist/officer recorded my “complaint” not on an official form, but on half a piece of torn paper from a stenographer’s notebook. He listened to me recount the earlier events, took my info and tried to convince me that this was “standard protocol.” I wasn’t buying it.

“So what happens from here?” I asked.

“We’ll send this to internal affairs,” he replied, “and they’ll investigate. If they find that there was a dereliction of duty, the officers will be reprimanded.”

“And how will I have any assurance that this properly handled?” I asked, “Will I find out if they are reprimanded or if any action is taken?”

“No, this is an internal affairs matter,” he replied.

“So there’s nothing else I can do to remedy this situation?” I asked.

“No,” he said.

“You don’t even want to hear my witnesses’ version of events?” I asked.

He replied, “Your witnesses would only undermine your credibility.”

No…no. UNTRUE, I thought. This was too much. Unable to control my anger, I turned around and headed out. As I was leaving, I was approached by none-other than a South Bend Tribune reporter who had overheard everything while sitting in the lobby.

“Would you mind recounting those events for me, on the record?” he asked.

“Not at all,” I replied, “In fact, I’d LOVE to.”

I told him everything, down to the nitty-gritty details. Meanwhile, inside, the officers radioed the first officer from the scene, who sped to the station…TO CONFRONT ME! While I was still talking to the reporter, the officer approached me and yelled, “You got something to say to me?”

“No, I don’t.” I replied, “I don’t want to talk to you at all. I came down here to file a complaint.”

“About what?” he asked.

“About the fact that you wouldn’t administer a sobriety test to the clearly intoxicated man who hit me,” I stated.

“Are you trying to tell me how to do my job?” he asked.

I responded, “No, I’m not telling you anything. I’m merely complaining that you didn’t even do your job.”

“What, by not giving a sobriety test to a sober man?” he replied.

(At this point, both of us were shouting…outside the South Bend Police Department.)

I answered, “The man was not sober. He was driving on the WRONG SIDE OF THE ROAD AND DIDN’T EVEN SWERVE TO AVOID ME!! You’re telling me that isn’t even slightly suspicious?”

“He didn’t seem drunk to me,” he replied.

“Might that be because he’s a former police chief, and you were covering for him?” I asked, “Tell me that’s not suspicious.”

“I don’t care if you’re the mayor,” he said, “If I think you’re drunk, I’m going to give you a sobriety test.”

“Apparently not,” I replied. “You didn’t give a former police chief a sobriety test.”

“He didn’t seem drunk to me,” he stated.

To which I replied, “Yeah, well, sobriety tests are administered to VERIFY whether or not things are how they ‘seem.’ ”

“If anything, I should have given you a sobriety test,” he said, “You’re the one who admitted to drinking.”

“Sir,” I said, “I was only being honest about having TWO beers, 7 hours earlier. You want to give me a sobriety test? Go for it.”

“I’m not going to waste my time,” he said.

“And neither am I.” I said, “I’m done talking to you.”

“Wait,” he said, “I have a problem with your license plate. Follow me to your car.”

The Tribune reporter then asked him, “Do you have anything to say?”

“Who are you?” the officer responded.

“I’m with the South Bend Tribune.”

The officer replied, “I have nothing to say to you. NO COMMENT.”

The officer then followed me to my car. It was then that I noticed my tags were expired. Great, now I’m going to get a ticket!

I quickly stated, “Yeah, my tags are expired. Are you going to give me a ticket? I’m sure the Tribune reporter would LOVE that!”

“No,” he replied, “I’m not giving you a ticket, you’re not driving your car right now.”

“Oh, so you’re going to wait until I’m on the road and then you’re gonna pull me over?”

“Nope, you can leave.”

He then wrote something into his notebook about my license plate and walked away.

Let’s break down this situation. I’m hit by a drunk driver. He’s the former chief of police of South Bend. The officers let him off because they don’t want to give a former police chief a DUI. Meanwhile, they treat me like the perpetrator from start to finish, patronizing and criticizing me for having concerns over their shoddy police work. So then I proceed to the police department to complain. They won’t take me seriously, but when a reporter does, they call the original officer so that he can come down and berate me. How professional!

If the man had truly been sober, would it have been worth it for the officer to come down and shout at me? Methinks not. He was worried about being reprimanded and publicly embarrassed because he let a drunk off. If the driver had truly been sober, the officer would have blown it off. But he knew I was right, knew that he’d ignored his obligations, and knew he was trying to cover his ass.

UPDATE: Patrick adds in comments:

There’s more to this story.

As it turns out, the man was not the former chief of police, but a retired chief of a particular department within the Police Department. Big difference, I suppose.

A reporter from WNDU was read a copy of the police report, which completely butchered the facts. The report said that the man veered [left] because the sun got in his eyes and he couldn’t see the road. First of all, it was raining all day on Saturday and the skies were persistently overcast. Secondly, according to the Weather Channel, the sun set at 5:54 on Saturday. The accident occurred at 6:30 (I know this because my friends’ train was leaving at 6:40 and we were running late). Third, the man was driving east, and the sun sets in the West.

Falsified police report? Apparently so. THAT is a criminal offense.

The report also omitted the witness’ statement as well as the fact that there even WAS a third party witness. Fortunately, I can obtain the witness’ name because her phone call to SBPD is a public record.

If these crooked cops think they can pull a fast one on me, they have another thing coming.

UPDATE: Again… it turns out the officer was not drunk, but rather was having a stroke. Please read Patrick’s final update to understand what actually happened.


Texas takes lead in BCS
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 3:15 pm

Guestblogger: David Kreutz

The latest BCS ranking are out and on the strength of the computer polls, the Longhorns have just edged out the Trojans for the #1 spot, but the margin is a razor thin .0007 points. Both teams hold a comfortable lead over #3 Virginia Tech, #4 Georgia, and #5 Alabama.

USC was hurt by low rankings in both the Colley Matrix and Kenneth Massey computer polls, although the Colley score, being the lower of the two was thrown out, as the BCS employs a high/low toss out method, averaging the remaining scores.

If both teams win out though it is likely USC will gain in the rankings due to the strength of its remaining schedule including 3 ranked teams (#21 Cal, #24 Fresno State, and unbeaten #8 UCLA). None of Texas remaing oponents are ranked although it is likely that Texas A&M will break into the top 25 if they continue winning.

Irish fans bewarned, Notre Dame looks to be Livin’ on a Prayer. The computer polls have the Irish scored at a #23 spot. The only thing keeping the Irish afloat at this point is their inexplicable #10 ranking in both human polls, over a number of one loss teams, two of whom, #14 Oregon and #16 Texas Tech have legitimate gripes with such a high ranking for a team that lost to 4-3 Michigan State, a team that has lost their last 3 games.

One more loss by the Irish will surely knock them out of any BCS hopes and winning out might not be enough either as their remaining schedule is fairly weak, and a number of 1 loss teams may jump them in the polls as the season finishes out.


Wilma’s effects, and FEMA’s response
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 1:36 pm

I’m sure that assessment of the damage will not be immediate; however, it has been reported that Wilma is responsible for three deaths in Florida thus far, and has knocked out power to 2.2 million people. Also, there appears to be significant flooding in the Keys — which would make sense given the topography of the land (that is, extremely low).

FEMA’s response has been:

  • More than 3,000 National Guardsmen mobilized; another 3,000 on alert
  • More than 33,000 people in shelters
  • 50 truckloads of ice, 50 truckloads of water, 5 truckloads of meals delivered to Homestead Air Force Base
  • 100 truckloads of ice, 100 truckloads of water, 25 truckloads of meals ready at Jacksonville Naval Air Station
  • 6 Disaster Medical Assistance Teams deployed to pre-stage in Orlando
  • 6 Disaster Medical Assistance Teams on alert at their home bases.

I’m sure there will be additional help as time goes on. No reports as to any military response yet, although Florida might be so used to these things by now that such a response might not be necessary.

The WaPo has indicated that the president has declared the area a disaster zone, though, and federal assitance will be available.

President Bush declared a major disaster in Florida, thus freeing up disaster aid for the state. Collier, Lee and Monroe counties are eligible for aid under the declaration. Federal assistance will also be available for up to 75 percent of the costs to restore damaged facilities in 20 other Florida counties, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

More as it comes.

Posted by Brian (Briandot)


Chat over
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 1:05 pm

My live WaPo chat is over. Here’s the transcript. Thanks for the questions, everybody!

All right, lunch break over, back to work.

P.S. Hurricane Wilma has unexpectedly re-strengthened to Category 3 over the Gulf Stream.


Greenspan successor
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 12:58 pm

In an amazing show of how personal loyalty trumps all, President Bush has nominated another member of his inner circle to a position of awesome power:

President Bush today nominated his chief economic adviser, Ben S. Bernanke, to replace Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve when Greenspan’s term expires Jan. 31.

To be fair, Bernanke was seen as the favorite by bookies months ago. But in the context of the recent Miers nomination, the ‘Brownie’-FEMA debacle, and the administration’s perhaps inappropriate closeness with various Halliburton subsidiaries, it might be cause for a raised eyebrow. :-/

There is an online discussion starting right about now at the Washington Post with Beth Ann Bovino, senior economist at Standard and Poor’s. Perhaps something to enjoy when you’re done reading Brendan’s online discussion at the same place. :)

Posted by Brian (Briandot)


Live chat this afternoon
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 12:02 pm

Don’t forget, I’ll be on the Washington Post website for a live chat during my lunch break this afternoon, between 1:00 and 2:00 PM EDT (that’s 12-1 South Bend time, or 10-11 on the West Coast). You can submit questions now.

NOTE: HaloScan appears to be broken, so comments are not working at the moment. :(


A beastly day
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 11:57 am

This morning, I went to Starbucks and bought Becky a grande chai ($3.30) and myself a venti coffee ($1.80) and a chocolate-chip cookie ($1.25). With tax ($0.31), the total came to $6.66.

Then I came to work, and was given a research assignment that involves, among other things, the federal statute barring “theft or bribery concerning programs receiving federal funds.” The citation? 18 U.S.C. § 666.

Is someone trying to tell me something? :)


Wilma weakens, but still mighty
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 8:21 am

Wilma has weakened to a Category 2 storm with 110 MPH winds as it makes its way across land. However, it is still quite dangerous, and officials are imploring people to simply take shelter and stay inside. From CNN:

“The metropolitan areas of Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Dade County are experiencing some of the worst of the weather now,” said NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport. “Over the next hour or two conditions will actually get worse. It’s important for people to just stay inside.”

FEMA “vows it will be ready,” and indeed it looks like they are prepositioning some supplies. How far that gets them is anyone’s guess.

Meanwhile, here’s an excellent gallery of Wilma images, not only of damage but also rescues and preparation, including some amusing south Floridian messages for Wilma. (e.g., “Go back to Bedrock!”) :)

Posted by Brian (Briandot)


Wilma makes landfall
Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2005 at 6:22 am

Hurricane Wilma made landfall near Cape Romano, Florida at 6:30 AM EDT as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds.

The worst is over in Key West, where there was substantial storm-surge flooding. In the Key Largo area, they’re worried about flooding on the back side of the storm as winds whip the Florida Bay into the funnel-like upper Keys. Naples and Marco Island were spared the worst of the flooding because they were on the north side of the eyewall.

UPDATE: TWC’s Jeff Morrow on the Florida east coast: “It’s a full-blown hurricane here. Miami is getting rocked right now.”

Meanwhile, Jim Cantore in Key Largo is wearing these awesome goggles that make his eyes look like they’re bugging out even more than usual. Heh.

Here’s the latest regional radar view.

It’s dangerous to draw conclusions too soon (recalling all the statements about how New Orleans appeared at first to have “dodged the bullet” from Katrina), but it doesn’t look like Wilma’s damage was too bad, at least in the heavily populated areas where the reporters are stationed. Not sure yet about Key West, though.

UPDATE 2: “We don’t see a lot of major structural damage,” said Mike Seidel in downtown Key West. “Just sort of scanning the streets, it doesn’t look that bad.” He thinks flood damage in the lower-lying areas will be a bigger deal than the wind damage — but the storm surge was 3-4 feet, not as bad as the 5-8 feet that was feared.

P.S. Here’s a 3 1/2-hour radar loop of Wilma’s landfall (1.4 MB).

Meanwhile, from the Miami radar, here’s a view of Wilma as of 6:50 AM EDT:

The NHC/NWS office in Miami reported a wind gust of 104 mph.

P.P.S. NBC 2 and the Sun-Sentinel have good storm blogs. More links here.

UPDATE 3: Here’s an early-morning visible satellite view of Wilma hitting Florida — and, at right, Tropical Depression Alpha racing northward on a collision course with Wilma.

FINAL UPDATE: Wilma, Alpha and a pre-existing non-tropical system are set to combine into a Nor’easter offshore of New England tomorrow. It won’t be Perfect Storm II, but it will be windy and wet.

And last but not least, Tim at Hyscience has footage of a Fox reporter losing his shoes to Wilma’s wrath. Heh. (Hat tip: Michelle Malkin.)


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