Drudge reports: “CBS’ JOHN ROBERTS: Lawyers familiar with the case think Wednesday is when special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald will make known his decision, and that there will be indictments. Supporters say Rove and the vice president’s chief of staff, Scooter Libby, are in legal jeopardy…”

On the other hand, the RedState rumor mill says Rove probably will not be indicted.

The U.S. death toll in Iraq officially hit 2,000 today.

For me, it’s been somewhat creepy and discomfiting to watch the media “count down” to this inevitable moment. The truth is, except for the family of the 2,000th soldier to die in Iraq, the passage of this milestone changes nothing — or at least, should change nothing. The war in Iraq is no more or less justified, no more or less wise, no more or less of a quagmire, today than it was yesterday. For those who support the war, all 2,000 fallen soldiers are heroes in a just cause, and the number of dead just proves once again that freedom isn’t free, not that the war is unjust or that we should end it before it’s won. For those who oppose the war, it’s a Peter, Paul and Mary-esque “how many deaths does it take till we know that too many people have died?” situation — but that was already true at 1,999 deaths, and it’ll still be true at 2,001.

Of course, for those who don’t have a strong opinion on the justness or unjustness of the war, but do strongly dislike the idea of American soldiers dying (don’t we all?), the psychological effect of the “milestone” may be significant — and that’s what antiwar folks like Cindy Sheehan (and, some would say, the MSM) are counting on when they make a big deal out of this. That troubles me, though. If the war in Iraq is a just and necessary component of the war on terror, then we must win it, and not be cowed into a premature withdrawal merely because our enemies have managed to kill quite a few of us (though still, it must be said, a cosmically small number in the grand scheme of things, in the context of the long and terrible history of warfare, even relatively recent warfare). If, on the other hand, the war is a pointless and unwinnable quagmire, then we should withdraw regardless of whether the death toll is 20, 2,000 or 200,000. Bottom line, the number of fallen soldiers should not be the determining factor in what we decide to do. The nature of the war is the threshold question.

Let me put it this way. Suppose we’re involved in a hypothetical war that’s totally justified and necessary, in which losing would be catastrophic to the broader war against Islamist terrorism. Again, forget the question of whether Iraq is such a war — just pretend our hypothetical war meets those criteria. In such a war, clearly we must stay and win, not cut and run, even if the death toll among our soldiers is (in Rudy Giuliani’s words) more than we can bear. To prematurely withdraw from such a war merely because the insurgents have had some success in killing our soldiers would send a very strong signal to our enemies that America can be defeated; you just have to bleed us a bit. The obvious, eventual end result would be far more deaths, most likely on our soil instead of theirs.

Now, again, I’m not necessarily saying that Iraq is such a war. I personally tend to believe that it is — and that, even if one doesn’t think it initially was, it’s harder to deny that it’s become one — but my point is a broader conceptual one: we cannot intelligently discuss the 2,000-deaths milestone, and what we want to do about our military presence in Iraq going forward, without having some sort of a renewed national discussion about whether this is, in fact, the sort of war that must be won at all costs. Alas, the facile arguments from both sides of the debate generally do not facilitate such a discussion.

Regardless of all this… may all our fallen heroes rest in peace, may their families find comfort in the nation’s sympathy and admiration, and may we all commit ourselves to making this country and world a better place — whatever that means to each of us — so that they shall not have died in vain.

The NHC has issued its final advisory on Hurricane Wilma, which still has 85 mph winds but has become extratropical as it zooms off to the east at a remarkable forward speed of 53 mph.

Here is the final discussion on what may go down as the second-costliest hurricane in history (behind Katrina).

So, with Wilma and Alpha now both declared dead, are we finally at the end of this long, long hurricane sason? Nope. But the United States might be off the hook, according to Dr. Jeff Masters:

Hurricane season runs through the end of November. On average, we get one tropical storm every other year between now and the end of the year. Given that this is no ordinary year, I think we can expect at least one more tropical storm. However, I do think that the hurricane season for the United States is over. An strong cold front behind Wilma has spread unseasonably cool air across the Gulf of Mexico, the Bahamas, Cuba, and into the northwest Caribbean. This cool air will significantly chill the ocean waters surrounding the U.S., making it difficult for a tropical storm to form or maintain its strength near the U.S.

The Caribbean could definitely see another storm or two, though. The NHC is already tracking a potential proto-Beta:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

The computer models are calling for that area to develop, according to commenter Andy. Here’s Joe Bastardi’s take:

An area of low with a pressure of 1011 millibars has developed over the southwestern Caribbean near 11 north and 78 west. Satellite images show signs of organization and, if this trend continues, a tropical depression might form out of this cloud mass and low pressure. The most recent computer models show this feature drifting westward during the next couple of days, then moving northwest to about the coast of Nicaragua Thursday night and Friday. From there, computer models either stall the system or move it northward into the northwestern Caribbean this weekend

Meanwhile, Bryan Woods at The Storm Track quotes a good explanation of the “Spawn of Wilmalpha” nor’easter. Here’s the surface map from The Weather Channel:

Here’s an update on the nor’easter hitting New England — which isn’t really a “spawn of Wilmalpha,” but I like the name anyway. :)

I don’t agree with John Walters’s opposition to a college-football playoff, but I do like this line:

College football is not the transitive property of addition. It is not Penn State beat Minnesota and Minnesota beat Michigan, therefore Penn State will defeat Michigan (just ask anyone in Happy Valley).

Heh. (Hat tip: Andrew)

WTF? (Audio clip here.) Hat tip: Mr. Irrelevant.

UPDATE: Apparently this is old news, and/or it never happened. Way to go Brendan, nice demonstration of the blogosphere’s credibility. :) I’ll report back if I get a definitive answer…

Apparently use of certain letters is a big no-no in Turkey. Specifically, the use of the letters ‘q’ and ‘w’ (which makes one wonder how they refer to their southern neighbor, Iraq). It seems that this law is simply being used to annoy the Kurds, which is somewhat unwise for the Turks (something tells me this won’t help their EU bid). Reuters via CNN is reporting:

DIYARBAKIR, Turkey (Reuters) — A Turkish court has fined 20 people for using the letters Q and W on placards at a Kurdish new year celebration, under a law that bans use of characters not in the Turkish alphabet, rights campaigners said.

The court in the southeastern city of Siirt fined each of the 20 people 100 new lira ($75.53) for holding up the placards, written in Kurdish, at the event last year. The letters Q and W do not exist in the Turkish alphabet.

(And you thought the spelling was bad in irishtrojan.com comment threads.)

Posted by Brian (Briandot)

TWC meteorologist and weatherblogger Matt Newman clarifies that the coastal storm affecting New England today is not actually Wilma’s spawn:

Some good questions are being raised about the interaction of Wilma and the developing Nor’easter. This subject has been debated about at TWC and between many [meteorologists]. To clarify on what I posted earlier, the low pressure (nor’easter) developing would have likely developed regardless of Wilma’s presence. There was a time when we thought the upper-level low responsible for this nor’easter could capture Wilma, thus resulting in one monster of a storm….hence the “Perfect Storm” analogy. BUT, this will not be the case in this situation. It is unclear if Wilma really will play any role.

“The [nor’easter] is picking up some moisture from Hurricane Wilma, which is passing well southeast of the region, but is ‘going to be a good storm in it’s own right,’ said Alan Dunham, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Taunton,” according to the AP.

Incidentally, Wilma is finally starting to weaken, but she’s still a Category 3 hurricane as of 5:00 AM EDT, with winds of 115 mph and a forward speed of 53 mph.

I almost forgot to tell y’all… I’m scheduled to be on Matty in the Morning on KISS 108 FM in Boston around 8:25 AM EDT (7:25 South Bend time). You can listen here.

There’s nothing like having a customer-service rep call you a “heinous b*tch” to brighten your day.

I have to say, my experience with South Bend cab companies in general has been awful. On two different occasions I am fairly certain the cab driver was intoxicated (which, obviously, entirely defeats the purpose of taking a cab to the bar!), I believe I’ve been charged an inflated price two or three times, and in one case I found myself in a cab with a downright bizarre driver who had been kicked off campus by the university for some reason. And then of course there was the whole porno scare — not a personal experience, but a cautionary tale nonetheless.

There have been other times, of course, when everything was just fine. But I can’t say I’m surprised to hear about someone else having a bad experience with a South Bend cab company. At least Kristin was sensible enough to take note of which company it was. I’ve never really kept track (probably because, if I’m taking a cab, it generally means I’m not entirely sober).

Anyway, wow… between the crooked cops and the crass cabbies, our town ROCKS. :)

Oh, for the love of Pete:

Hurricane Wilma slammed into Florida’s east coast on Monday with a sucker punch — not hard from the Atlantic but from the Gulf of Mexico, roaring across the width of the state, barely losing force.

Most people here had gone to bed the night before believing the storm would lose steam by the time it made landfall or would at least hit the Everglades and stall; only mobile home residents were told to evacuate.

Okay, let’s get one thing straight. If anyone actually thought that Hurricane Wilma was going to “hit the Everglades and stall,” that belief was based on total ignorance, and had absolutely nothing to do with any prediction by any reputable meteorologist anywhere on planet earth. The Washington Post really should NOT be suggesting — in its second graf, no less! — that this was a reasonable thing for people to think. Re-damn-diculous.

Moreover, it was clear before any normal person’s bedtime Sunday night that Wilma was not weakening, and if anything was strengthening, as she approached the state’s west coast. And the forecasters had said all along that she would only lose 10-15 mph of wind speed, if that, while crossing the peninsula. So this whole “barely losing force” thing really was not unexpected.

I can only imagine how frustrating it must be for the real meteorologists to read crap like this. I mean, it pisses me off, and I’m just a fake meteorologist! :) Seriously, these weather experts work their asses off trying to produce a good forecast, and they succeed, and what does it accomplish? Large swaths of the public virtually ignore them — 90% of Key West refuses to evacuate, etc. — and, after the storm passes, the media acts like it was reasonable for people to have been “surprised” by things which were entirely expected. ARGH!!

P.S. Don’t get me wrong… the damage to the east coast of Florida was quite bad, and it’s not unreasonable for people to be somewhat surprised by the extent of it. Hell, I’m somewhat surprised by the extent of it. But for people to say they expected a hurricane moving at 20 mph to suddenly hit the brakes (even though no forecast called for such a thing), or to massively weaken immediately after landfall (even though all the forecasts said the winds would only drop slightly), is absurd. People need to f***in’ pay attention, and the media needs to not amplify ignorance and idiocy.

Patrick has an update on the South Bend police drunk-driving outrage.

[UPDATE: As it turns out, things were not what they seemed. It turns out the officer was not drunk, but rather was having a stroke. Please read Patrick’s final update to understand what actually happened.]

The 11:00 PM EDT advisory is out, and Wilma is still listed as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. In fact, according to the discussion, “Wilma’s eye has become better defined during the past 6 hours, and the diameter has decreased [from 70 to 45 miles] … [and] both the eye and eyewall convection have improved significantly.” All this “despite wind shear levels that would normally barely support a hurricane,” according to Dr. Jeff Masters. Remarkable! And it’s happening while the hurricane is moving northeast at 47 mph — which, as The Storm Track notes, is “very very very fast for a hurricane.”

Here’s a look at the various sytems that are converging:

It’s raining really hard in Connecticut right now. [CORRECTION: Or not.] And Andrew Leyden has pictures of Wilma/Wilmalpha/Whatever bringing wind and waves to Chesapeake Bay.

This will be a good satellite view to watch as Wilma moves out to sea and is eventually followed by Spawn of Wilmalpha (aha, now there’s a good name). See also here.

UPDATE: Weather Channel senior meteorologist and weatherblogger Matt Newman writes: “The debates will continue within the meteorological community about the events taking place along the East Coast but it appears more and more like Wilma will remain a separate entity from the extratropical (non-tropical) low pressure system forming off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.”

Story here.

An Australian reader e-mailed to tell me that Apple has launched the Down Under version of the iTunes Music Store. (Hey, I gotta post something for the Aussies, they make up 0.35% of my audience!)

They’re also being sued. Apple, that is, not the Aussies. :)