ConfirmThem.com is perhaps the best source for SCOTUS nomination gossip, including this from SCOTUS-blogger extraordinaire Erick Erickson:

My friend in the White House thinks that the next nominee will be from the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals — [Michael] Luttig or [Karen] Williams. … There is a strong likelihood that the announcement will come tomorrow.

Erickson has been wrong before; he’s also been right before. So which is it this time? He seems to think Williams is the more likely pick; he says the “question for the next 24 hours” is whether she’s “the next Justice of the United States Supreme Court or the next Joy Clement.” (Clement, you may recall, was the subject of rampant speculation all morning and early afternoon of the day that ultimately ended with the nomination of John Roberts.)

The folks at Tradesports are on the same page as Erickson — probably because they’re reading his blog :) — as indicated by the fact that Williams and Luttig are the leaders in the betting, with Harriet Miers and Alberto Gonzales a little ways behind, and everyone else far back.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE, 11:06 PM: Gonzales has surged in the betting in the last hour or two. Not sure what that means, if anything.

In other news, answering a question that I know some law students had asked, Article III Junkie has the word on Rehnquist’s (now Roberts’s) law clerks.

And speaking of Roberts, I missed this earlier, but the L.A. Times editorial board, hardly a conservative bastion, agrees with me about the Senate vote on Bush’s first pick. They wrote on Friday:

The good news is that 22 Democratic senators voted to confirm John G. Roberts Jr. as the 17th chief justice of the United States. That’s more than anyone would have imagined just a few months ago, when the talk in Washington was all about filibusters and nuclear options. The bad news is that 22 Democratic senators voted against Roberts. That’s far more than the handful of Republicans who voted against Bill Clinton’s two Supreme Court appointees, Stephen G. Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

Washington’s recent polarization suggests things could have been worse. But it is still alarming that 22 Democrats voted against a nominee of Roberts’ caliber. Last November, the American people granted President Bush the power to appoint Supreme Court justices, and in his first opportunity to exercise this power he has acted responsibly, choosing a mainstream conservative with unimpeachable credentials. Half the Democrats in the Senate — including such independent-minded liberals as Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont and Russell D. Feingold of Wisconsin, both members of the Judiciary Committee — did the right thing by supporting the president’s choice.

But too many Democrats beholden to liberal interest groups embarrassed themselves and the party by opposing Roberts. These groups wield disproportionate power in mobilizing activists and raising campaign funds, but they do not speak for the majority of Americans or even most Democrats.

Worse, in terms of the broader national interest, by appearing so obstructionist, these senators have undermined their credibility to oppose future judicial picks who may actually be outside the mainstream.

It was almost comical watching the likes of Harry Reid, the ostensibly centrist Senate minority leader from Nevada, and Charles E. Schumer of New York struggle to justify their opposition to Roberts, all the while conceding he may turn out to be a terrific justice. Closer to home, it was disappointing to see Dianne Feinstein, California’s centrist senator, on the wrong side of the issue, opposing Roberts’ confirmation.

Except for Feingold, most Democratic senators harboring presidential aspirations also voted against Roberts. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Joseph R. Biden, John Kerry and Evan Bayh all felt compelled to please organizations that have a vested interest in turning each one of these confirmation battles into Armageddon. At what cost to their future credibility with centrist voters remains to be seen.

Well said.

Connecticut’s law authorizing same-sex civil unions went into effect yesterday, and gay couples across the state celebrated by getting, uh, civil-union-ized. Woohoo!

Of course, not everyone was happy:

Two noon rallies outside the state Capitol protested the new law. One group felt civil unions should not be allowed and the other said that same-sex marriage should be permitted.

Heh. More on the rallies here.

Those who have objected to other recent gay-rights developments on the basis of “judicial activism” can’t complain about what’s happening in the Nutmeg State:

Connecticut is the first state to grant legal recognition to gay couples without a directive from the courts. Massachusetts, which permits gays to marry, and Vermont, which authorizes civil unions, were reacting to judges’ orders.

This was all thanks to the legislature that passed the bill, and the (Republican) governor who signed it. Hurrah for democracy, and hurrah for steps forward toward equality!

UPDATE: Sean comments:

Brendan, you don’t know what it’s like back in here in Connecticut. You’re back safe in Indiana. But civilization has completely collapsed! All morals have been shed. Brother is killing brother, parents are eating their own children, and the streets aren’t safe thanks to packs of roaming brigands. Connecticut has become a wilderness, a Hobbesian dystopia. All because we let gay people live in the same house and get a few privileges. The humanity!

Heh.

From Fox News:

Nineteen people were killed when a small tour boat carrying 47 people flipped over Sunday on a lake in upstate New York, the county sheriff told the Glens Falls Post-Star.

Warren County Sheriff Larry Cleveland told the paper the Ethan Allen capsized when another tour boat passed near it and swamped it. The Ethan Allen sank, he said.

The 40-foot, glass-enclosed tour boat flipped around 4 p.m. on Lake George about 50 miles north of Albany in the Adirondack Mountains.

The weather was clear, calm and in the 70s Sunday afternoon. …

The passengers were part of a senior citizen’s cruise on the lake.

The Post Star now puts the death toll at 20.

So far, so good in the wild-card race for the Red Sox: Boston leads 2-0 in the fourth inning of a game that may be soon rendered moot because Cleveland trails 3-1 in the eighth. If the Indians lose, the Red Sox don’t need to win; they’re in regardless. (If the Sox choke and the Indians rally, there would be a one-game playoff at Fenway tomorrow between those two teams.)

Meanwhile, in the National League, where Philadelphia is in essentially the same position as the Indians — one game back in the wild-card race, needing to win and hoping the other team (in this case Houston) loses in order to force a playoff — the Phillies lead 5-3 in the seventh, but they need some help from the Cubs, who trail Houston 3-2 in the sixth.

UPDATE: On to the ninth! The White Sox are three outs away from securing the wild card for the Red Sox — and setting up a Sox vs. Sox division series starting Tuesday. What’s more, Boston is now up 6-0 on the Yanks. But the Indians game will be decided first. Will the Red Sox yank Schilling and some of their starters if Cleveland loses?

UPDATE 2: White Sox win! The Red Sox win the wild card!

UPDATE 3: Anybody have a Game 5 ticket (Red Sox vs. White Sox, Sunday in Chicago, if necessary) that you want to get rid of, for less than like a million dollars? :)

UPDATE 4: Phillies win, but… two outs in the ninth in Houston, Astros up 6-4…

UPDATE 5: Astros win!

So the Phillies just miss out on the playoffs. But at least Jimmy Rollins’s hitting streak is still alive, now at 36 games.

Re-damn-diculous:

Arizona State dropped three spots to No. 17 after its 38-28 loss to USC.

Can someone please explain to me the logic of this? If you’re ranked #14, you’re supposed to lose to the #1 team. That assumption is built in; it’s inherent in the rankings. So the mere fact of a loss should not automatically drop you in the polls. (This is basic math and logic, people.) And since it was a very close loss — a near-win, a nailbiting game undecided until the final minutes — doesn’t that perhaps indicate that you’re actually better than previously believed? Bottom line, I absolutely fail to see how a close loss to the #1 team and consensus national-champion favorite indicates that ASU is worse than expected and therefore worthy of a drop in the polls. I call bulls**t.

(On the other hand, I suppose perhaps the pollsters felt obligated to leapfrog Texas Tech and Wisconsin ahead of ASU in response to those teams’ oh-so-impressive victories over powerhouse opponents Kansas and Indiana, respectively. Heh.)

Congrats to Penn State, though — in the Top 25 for the first time since 2002, back when Joe Paterno was only 118 years old. :) Oh, and Alabama is #7, its highest ranking since 2000.

USC is #1, of course, and Notre Dame is #12. And with #5 Georgia playing #8 Tennessee next week, the Irish have an excellent chance to climb at least one spot, to #11, in their off-week. One more upset of a higher-ranked team should get them into the Top 10 for the USC game. Like, say… UCLA over #10 Cal (but I don’t want to root for that!) … or Duke over #9 Miami (heh) … or, hey, Penn State over #8 Ohio State would do the trick! Go Nittany Lions! :)

Just a few days after deciding that TV critics should tell the truth, the New York Times has decided that opinion columnists should tell the truth, too. Why, if they keep this up, they might end up running a decent newspaper over there! ;)

Early this morning there was an AP report (CNN) of what might have been a suicide bomber at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium for the OU-Kansas State game:

NORMAN, Oklahoma (AP) — One person was killed in an explosion near a packed football stadium at the University of Oklahoma on Saturday night in what authorities said appeared to be a suicide.

Officials say the blast was at about halftime, but don’t worry: the game continued, and Oklahoma won.

In other news, the UM Terps handed UVA their first loss with a 45-33 homecoming win.

Brian (Briandot) (UM alum)

Becky’s and my friend, fellow USC and Daily Trojan alum Arash Markazi takes a “closer look” at the USC-Arizona State game. He concludes:

The Trojans survived what most thought would be the toughest stretch in their schedule — back-to-back road games against Oregon and Arizona State — with their winning streak still intact. While the Trojans might still be the No. 1 team in the country, they are beginning to show weaknesses on both sides of the ball that better teams will exploit. USC, however, might not meet a team talented enough to do that that until the national championship game.

P.S. Stewart Mandel has more, including this great quote regarding Trojan fullback David Kirtman, whose seven receptions for 97 yards helped make up for a below-average day by Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith:

Afterward, Arizona State coach Dirk Koetter summed up the universal frustration felt by USC opponents in trying to stop the Trojans’ seemingly endless plethora of weapons: “I don’t remember anyone asking me this week whether we could stop USC’s fullback,” he said.

Heh.

Three names left! Tropical Depression 20 has become Tropical Storm Stan off the Yucatan Peninsula.

The forecast predicts that Stan will weaken back to a T.D. over the Yucatan, then re-strengthen to a T.S. and maybe even a hurricane over the Bay of Campeche before its second landfall in Mexico next week.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 19 in the eastern Atlantic remains poorly organized. It’s possible it may dissipate before ever becoming Tropical Storm Tammy. Either way, T.D. 19 is not a threat to land (which means I can unashamedly “root” for it to become a T.S., without feeling guilty :).

Names left on the list: Tammy, Vince, and Wilma… then we break out the Greek alphabet. Tropical Storm Alpha would be the 22nd tropical cyclone of the season, breaking the 72-year-old record of 21 storms, set in 1933.

P.S. At this time in 1995 — the busiest season of the modern, named-storms era, with 19 storms — we were on Opal. Pablo formed on October 4, Roxanne on October 7, Sebastien on October 20 (18 days later than Stan this year), and Tanya on October 27.

P.P.S. In other news, in the Western Pacific there’s a storm named Typhoon Longwang. Teehee. But seriously… it hit Taiwan — accompanied by an earthquake! — and is now heading for China.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Otis is aiming for Baja California and then… Arizona!

I, for one, welcome our new wireless overlords.

Monday, October 3 is more than just the 10th anniversary of the O.J. Simpson verdict, the 11th anniversary of the day I “asked out” my now-engaged classmate Tara in eighth grade :), and the 15th anniversary of the re-unification of Germany. It’s also the date of an annular solar eclipse, visible in Europe, Africa and the Middle and Near East but not, alas, anywhere on this side of Atlantic.

Washington is beating UCLA 10-0 in the third quarter. Woohoo! Go Huskies! :)

UPDATE: Crap, the Bruins pulled it out, 21-17.

Notre Dame 49, Purdue 28, final. WOOHOO! Way to go, Irish!

“That campus in South Bend will be excited in two weeks when the Trojans come to town,” says the ESPN announcer. Yup.

Y’all know I have different feelings about that little Oct. 15 game than most residents of South Bend do. :) But as a peace offering to my fellow Domers — and also to answer David’s question about what the “Goooo Irish, Beat [Whomever]” chant sounds like — I offer the following sound clip, courtesy of my former roommate and fellow 2L (and fervent anti-USC rooter) Chris. But please understand that the sentiments expressed in this clip are not endorsed in any way, shape or form by the management here at BrendanLoy.com :) …

source file

As for me, I’ll hold off on any “Beat the Irish” chants for another week. Right now, the Trojan chant du jour is:

BEAT!!! THE WILDCATS!!!

Oh, and here are the latest standings in the Notre Dame prediction contest.

Here, at last, are the official standings in the BrendanLoy.com USC prediction contest. All but four of the 18 contestants are, like the Trojans, a perfect 4-0 in their predictions, but the “point differential” tiebreaker gives Andrew Long the lead.

Here’s a look at everybody’s picks. If you notice any discrepancies with the original prediction thread, please let me know!

You can also retroactively look at the standings from Week 3, Week 2 and Week 1.

“A beautiful state, but yeah, it does blow.” –ESPN announcer at ND-Purdue game, referring to Wyoming