Right now, the primary concern with Hurricane Wilma is what will happen in Mexico, Cuba and Florida — and rightfully so. But, looking past Florida, there is a growing (though still very far-off, and ultimately unlikely to come to fruition) threat to the Northeast as well. And if Wilma does head in that direction, it will happen very quickly after landfall in Florida, as she accelerates to the north-northeast. Dr. Jeff Masters points out: “There is the possibility of a threat to New England–the latest GFDL model run has Wilma hitting the Cape Cod area as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday night.” Here’s a look at some of the models:

“The degree of uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast of Wilma remains very high,” Dr. Masters adds. But it’s worth noting that, on top of all the worst-case scenarios we’ve had to talk about this hurricane season, the New York scenario, though unlikely, is now in play.

UPDATE: Bryan thinks I’m fear-mongering. That’s not my intention at all. I just think it’s worth noting that this is a possibility, especially because, as I said, if it does happen, it will happen very quickly, and New Englanders/New Yorkers will be caught off-guard if they aren’t thinking about it before landfall in Florida. But, as I said, it’s unlikely to happen. (All 120-hour-out scenarios are always unlikely to happen.)

With an 894 mb central pressure, Hurricane Wilma is more intense than Hurricanes Rita, Katrina or Andrew ever were… but supposedly, she’s now “just” a Category 4 with 155 mph winds. That doesn’t make much sense to me, but whatever. Regardless, she “could re-intensify on Thursday,” according to the NHC. The discussion adds more detail:

WILMA SHOULD UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR. THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT WILMA WILL RE-INTENSIFY WHEN THE CYCLE IS OVER. THERE IS A CHANCE WILMA COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE ENDS. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE WILMA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THAT BEING SAID…WILMA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH FLORIDA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA…WILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EVEN COOLER WATER. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF WILMA. THE FIRST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN OR THE INTERACTION WITH THE PENINSULA IN THE FORECAST CLOSE APPROACH. A LANDFALL WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER STORM…WHILE INTERACTION COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE SECOND IS POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND PHASING WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AFTER 96 HR. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN…WILMA COULD BECOME A POWERFUL STORM EITHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

The discussion also reveals that the NHC is slowly coming around to Joe Bastardi’s view that a slower forward motion, and thus a later Florida landfall, is likely. The current official track calls for a midday Sunday landfall — almost 12 hours later than previously predicted — and “even this slower forecast is faster than the [computer model] guidance.” In other words, unless the models change, the official forecast is likely to slow down further tomorrow. However, the computer models now say it is less likely that Wilma will stall out near the Yucatan.

The Weather Channel’s Mike Siedel, reporting live from Key West, says he’s going to have an interview at the top of the hour with “the youngest Weather Channel junkie” he’s ever met. He didn’t say exactly how old the girl is, but apparently her meteorological knowledge is “incredible.” No fair — 15 years ago, that could have been me! :) My advice to her: keep watching TWC, and maybe someday you’ll be called a “weather nerd” in a New York Times headline. :)

AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi offers his perspective on Wilma, which is somewhat different than the NHC/TPC’s prediction of a Florida landfall overnight Saturday night:

2.) The idea of a slower hit on Florida (Sunday) will not be backed away from. In fact, I may be too fast. I feel TPC will have to slow down their ideas, but we shall see.

3.) There is a 10% chance that Wilma can miss the trof, dance westward along the north coast of the Yucatan and then turn southwestward into Mexico.

4.) NO-Gaps now supports my idea of phasing and the storm blasting New England. All other models are all over the place. The moral is, leave the track that is out and try to play with times and intensity…for now.

5.) A major New England and Northeast rain threat early next week, of course, would turn into a disaster if Wilma came into play.

6.) The storm will be very different once north of 30 north. A weakening center core and expanding wind field makes it a bigger storm in Florida than southwest of it for Charley, but not as furious at the center. My track is very close to the Charley landfall area and the exit is similar also.

7.) Once in the Atlantic, the storm becomes a huge hybrid and the strongest winds could wind up 100-200 miles from the center once north of the Hatteras latitude.

Here is Bastardi’s forecast track.

Incidentally, note the updated list of links at left, including the Cancun radar.

A few minutes ago, Jim Cantore said on The Weather Channel that “we’re praying” Wilma will hit the Yucatan Peninsula and linger for a while, so that it will weaken before heading toward Florida.

Umm… praying for Mexicans to die so that Americans can live? Especially given that America is much better than Mexico and other poor countries at avoiding hurricane deaths, meaning that a Yucatan landfall is likely to kill more people (while causing less property damage) than a Florida landfall? I love Jim Cantore, but I’m not sure I can agree with him on this one.

My advice: pray for Wilma to miss Mexico and Cuba, and then make a really sharp right turn, so it stays south of Florida, including Key West. (A direct hit by the eye or the right-front quadrant would destroy Key West.)

Does anybody have enough space, bandwidth, and charity to let me upload 169.8 MB of AVI files which may be downloaded by thousands of people each? I am looking for a way to get all my ND-USC videos online, and in full-size, downloadable form. There are 11 video files total. Please e-mail me if you can help!

After bottoming out at an all-time record low pressure of 882 mb this morning, Hurricane Wilma’s pressure rose to 900 mb and its maximum sustained winds dropped to 160 mph — but now the pressure is back down to 892 mb, and an eyewall replacement cycle has just finished, according to Bryan Woods at The Storm Track:

The latest satellite shots clearly show a newly-formed eyewall that has consolidated. The old ‘pinhole’ eyewall is shown below in its final stage of collapse in the center of the new eye. With eyewall replacement now complete, Wilma could restrengthen.

The track forecast is getting very complicated:

Some tracks have shifted more towards the Yucatan, and the models now show two distinct solutions. One solution calls for a direct hit on Southern Florida, and the other hits the Yucatan and then turns Wilma back towards Cuba. …

The models look like they are heading right out the window today. There is a chance that we may have to rewrite the whole forecast track if the current trends continue. However, I am going to play it steady right now and wait for tonight’s model runs before I make any drastic changes. At this point I am going to stick with a forecast of a Florida landfall, but beware that the situation could be changing. The difference of opinions seems to depend on whether Wilma gets caught up by a low over the Great Lakes.

Here is the official forecast. Hurricane Warnings are up for the tip of the Yucatan.

Guestblogger: David Kreutz

Earlier today Apple held their second press event in as many weeks, this time unveiling updated PowerBooks, PowerMacs, and a new proffesional level photo application called Apperture. Macworld has info on the new PowerBooks, PowerMacs, and Aperture.

So in the past few weeks Apple has completely revamped just about their whole product line, starting with the release of the iPod Nano, last week upgrading the iMac and the iPod, and this week updates to the PowerMac and PowerBook lines. The eMac, the last CRT based Mac has gone back to being education only. The Mac mini, which was released in July, recieved a modest upgrade in Septemeber. The iBook is now the oldest model, having not been update since July when the mini was announced.

[UPDATE: Welcome, Hugh Hewitt readers! For the latest on Wilma, visit my homepage!]

Hurricane Wilma intensified further overnight, deepening to 882 millibars — setting a new all-time record for lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in an Atlantic basin hurricane. The old record was held by 1988’s Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb). Wilma is within 12 millibars of the lowest non-tornadic pressure ever recorded on Earth, 870 mb, set by Sypertyphoon Tip in the western Pacific in 1979.

Many historic things have occurred in the 2005 hurricane season, but meteorologically speaking, this one takes the cake: a 12-hour, 86-millibar pressure drop leading to the all-time strongest Atlantic hurricane ever. As The Storm Track keeps saying: “WOW.”

Dr. Jeff Masters calls Wilma a “freak of nature”:

There has never been a hurricane like Wilma before. With an unbelievable round of intensification that saw the pressure drop 87 mb in just 12 hours, Wilma smashed the all-time record for lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane this morning. The 4 am hurricane hunter report put the pressure at 882 mb, easily besting the previous record of 888 mb set in Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Since no hurricane hunter airplane has been in the eye since then, Wilma may be even stronger now. The eye diameter of Wilma during this round of intensification shrunk as low as 2 nautical miles, which may be the smallest eye diameter ever measured in a tropical cyclone. The only eye I could find close to that small in the records was a 3 nm one, the Category 4 Typhoon Jeliwat in 2000. It’s amazing the hurricane hunters were even able to penetrate the eye–it’s really tough to hit a 2 mile wide eye when you’re flying crabbed over at a 30 degree yaw angle fighting horizontal flight level winds of 185 mph and severe turbulence. This is an incredibly compact, amazingly intense hurricane, the likes of which has never been seen in the Atlantic.

Dr. Masters adds that it’s getting very close to “get the hell out” time: “I expect the evacuation order for non-residents in the Keys will be given today, and the Keys and residents of southwest Florida from Naples southward are at greatest risk from Wilma. Assuming Wilma does hit the Everglades as expected, the Gold Coast of Florida from Miami to West Palm Beach is in for a severe pounding after Wilma crosses south Florida.”

Wilma is not likely to maintain her current intensity through landfall in Florida. In the 5am EDT discussion, the Hurricane Center declared:

DESPITE THE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT…WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MOST LIKELY…THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER…ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR…WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

Since then, no further strengthening has been observed. The 11am EDT discussion adds:

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…BUT THESE ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED…HOWEVER…IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.

Specifically, she is forecast to be at 130 mph — a borderline Category 3/4 hurricane — as she approaches the Florida coast on Saturday.

And that’s not all. After Florida, Wilma may threaten New England:

RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THIS SCENARIO…WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET…BOTH OLDER RUNS…DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN THE GFDL…GFS…AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.

You can take a look at the individual computer models here.

Hurricane Wilma has now tied the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane for the second-most intense hurricane in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin:

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

Another 90 minutes, another 9-millibar drop. Five more millibars of intensification, and Wilma will surpass Hurricane Gilbert’s all-time record for lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (888 mb).

Wilma’s eye is just two miles wide, so an eyewall replacement cycle seems almost certain to begin soon. But will she surpass Gilbert’s all-time record low pressure before she peaks and the weakening begins?

P.S. This is the first time in recorded history that three Category 5 hurricanes have formed in the same season in the Atlantic basin — and they were all in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico within the space of less than two months!

Hurricane Wilma’s explosive intensification has continued in a very big way — dropping 69 millibars in 8 hours!!! — and she is now a Category 4 major hurricane with winds of 150 mph. According to the discussion:

AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE. WILMA IS NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE TODAY.

That pressure of 901 millibars is ridiculously low — a millibar lower than Katrina’s lowest pressure, and just four millibars higher than Rita’s lowest pressure. Wilma is now the fifth most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. Three of the six most intense Atlantic basin hurricanes in recorded history have occurred this year.

Given the incredibly low pressure, it seems almost certain that Wilma’s winds will “spin up” to Category Five strength over the next 6-12 hours.

Bryan Woods at The Storm Track writes: “I thought I had seen everything this hurricane season, but I was wrong. WOW! … Between 5pm EDT and 1pm EDT Wilma’s pressure dropped from 970 mb to 901 mb and her winds increased from 80 mph to 150 mph. This rate of strengthening in incredible. A strengthening of 69 mb in 8 hours is absolutely amazing.”

To give you some perspective: a drop of one millibar per hour is considered “rapid intensification.” Wilma has been averaging more than 8 millibars per hour!

He adds: “Wilma clearly has her sights set on passing through the Yucatan Gap and heading directly at Southern Florida. This is no longer a joking matter. We have yet another catastrophic hurricane at hand.”

I’m not sure it ever was a joking matter, but it certainly isn’t now.

P.S. This earlier post from Woods shows that the oceanic heat content diminishes north of the Florida Keys — so if Wilma follows the expected track, she’s unlikely to make landfall as a Cat. 5. But that’s no reason to rest easy. It doesn’t take a Cat. 5 to cause serious devastation. Witness the destroyed Mississippi coastline, where Katrina came ashore as a Category 3 or maybe even a strong Cat. 2!

Get ready, south Florida. Wilma’s big, she’s bad, and she’s coming.

P.P.S. Here’s the latest recon data. Look at line “F” for the maximum flight-level wind and line “H” for the minimum central pressure. At present, the most recent report (162 kt, 901 mb) is as of 04:32:40Z (see line “A”).

And here’s a look at the computer models.

At dinner tonight with a pair of Squire Sanders attorneys at Lons at the Hermosa, the talk turned to politics, and I expressed my opinion that Hurricane Katrina and Bush’s low approval ratings create the perfect conditions for a Giuliani candidacy. One of the attorneys, Christine, said she thinks it will be McCain; I said I think he’s too reviled by too many conservatives (I read in The Economist the other day that he has a higher approval rating among Democrats and independents than among Republicans), whereas Giuliani might just be able to get over the pro-choice hump because of his other qualifications. So she proposed a bet, which I of course accepted. If Giuliani wins the nomination, she owes me a dinner at Lons; if McCain wins the nomination, I owe her a dinner at Lons; and if neither one wins the nomination, we go out for drinks anyway, but nobody owes anybody anything. (Presumably our respective significant others will be involved in this as well, lest anyone get any ideas.) She then insisted that I post about our bet on the blog, so that it will be recorded for posterity. So, here you go. :)