I’ll have more to say in the coming days about Sarah and yesterday’s tributes, but for now, I need to sleep. First, though, here is an audio clip that I managed to discreetly record of the congregation singing "Nearer My God to Thee" at the funeral yesterday. Please note, the audio quality is terrible… and be warned, there’s a loud noise at 0:58 of the audio clip as I fidget and move the camera… but for what it’s worth…

source file
MP3 File

Lyrics here.

I am on the ground in Phoenix. Rita is at 140 mph and 917 mb, and probably about to start strengthening again; eyewall replacement cycle is over, according to the 11pm discussion, and she is now approaching another warm eddy. Cat. 5 again by morning?

Here is the latest discussion from the NHC: Read more

As Ed from WeatherBlog says, the track can change and everyone inside the cone/swath should be prepared for a direct landfall. Those who reside outside the cone should not let their guard down either, as impacts will be felt well away from the center! In addition, impacts will be felt well away from the coast.

posted by Matt @ MyWeatherBlog.com

Looking at the satellite picture over the past couple hours — since say around 8PM or so — it appears (at least to this untrained eye) that Rita has again took a jog to the west, perhaps a little north of due west rather than its mostly northwestward motion most of the day today.

This is why I’m not ready to say all clear to Houston/Galveston yet. One of the National Hurricane Center’s newest models, the WRF, is still predicting a worst-case scenario for the region. The track is prime to push a 15+ foot storm surge up the Galveston Bay — although I notice that its from 00z Thu (which would be yesterday evening). I am going to be very interested to see the model’s run tonight.

From an MSNBC article on the model:

“In a previous test, ARW captured in detail the collapse of Hurricane Katrina’s eyewall at landfall and the shift of precipitation to the north side of the storm, Davis and colleagues say…

…The new model, called ARW, works on a grid of data points about 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) apart, closer than other models in use. It can project the location of fine-scale rain bands and structures in the hurricane’s central eyewall 48 hours into the future.”

Please remember folks that hurricane forecasts, even 24-36 hours out.. can be off by 50 miles or more. If you are still in the cone by midday Friday, I’d start worrying.

Ed @ WeatherBlog

According to CNN, Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honore has said that the role that the U.S. military has played in post-Katrina recovery efforts in Louisiana is nearing an end — unless, that is, there are complications from Hurricane Rita.

That isn’t to say that the National Guard will be completely removed, (although they are being repositioned in other areas); only that the regular military presence in New Orleans and surrounding areas will soon end. ‘Course, they shouldn’t get too comfortable; Raging Rita is threatening Texas right now, and they might simply have to make a shift to the west.

Indeed, the Army is already making preparations for that storm: in NOLA, they’re reinforcing the levees with steel sheets and sandbags as well as closing the some of the canals, in addition to redeploying some 1,100 Texas National Guard to their home state. They’ll be part of Joint Task Force Rita, which at the moment includes 1,750 National Guard troops pre-positioned between Austin and San Antonio.

(I’ve got a buddy stationed at Fort Sam Houston in San Antonio right now, and while not directly in the path of Rita, it’ll be none too pleasant for him either. Good luck, guys.)

Brian (Briandot)

There is “gridlock for a hundred miles” in Texas, according to CNN (as seen at the Cincinnati airport). This is going to be really bad if it doesn’t clear up in the next 18 hours or so. You don’t want to be stuck on the highway when the storm begins to roar ashore. (Landfall is approximately 30 hours away, but a hurricane is not a point; the bad weather will precede the center by many hours.)

On the bright side, the latest forecast track suggests Rita will probably stay east of Houston and Galveston, which will spare those cities the worst of the storm surge. That’s still not certain, though. And even if it pans out, good news for Houston/Galveston is bad news for other areas, like Lafayette, Louisiana… and New Orleans, with its weakened levees.

Please note, I have been largely unable to look at NHC discussions, computer-model tracks, or other weatherbloggers’ observations for the last 24 hours, because I’ve been so busy and away from reliable and fast Internet access. So I don’t have as much information as usual, but this is what I gather from what I know.

Well, I gotta board my flight to Phoenix. Again, many thanks to the guestbloggers for their help!

Guest Blogger: David Kreutz

So some guy at UC San Diego made a 3′ tall GameBoy for his senior project. Thats right, 3′ tall. It actually works too. Man, some people have the best majors…

Evacuation trouble in Texas:

On Highway 290, a major road between Houston and Austin, people were pushing their cars and minivans to save gas — and were moving just as fast as the vehicles that were driving. Others were stopped on the side of the highway after breaking down or running out of gas. …

Gas stations along some of the major arteries out of Houston and Beaumont were running low on gas, said Steven McCraw, director of the governor’s division of emergency management.

Have I said “yikes” recently?

“Sarah’s life was like a shooting star — shining brightly, and extinguished all too soon.” –Zachary LeFoll, Sarah’s oldest brother

Sarah was laid to rest today after a lovely funeral and burial service. Singing in tribute to her was very moving, and everyone seemed to think we sounded great. And I do feel a little better now. So I’d say my “Welsh Lullaby” brainstorm was a success. (Here again is the sound clip of Sarah’s choir singing it.)

I also made a point of speaking to both of Sarah’s parents after the funeral and thanking them for bringing their wonderful daughter into the world. I even made reference to the time in the summer of 1999 when their caller ID registered that I had called Sarah like a dozen times one day, hoping to hang out with her — an event that, at the time, I think made the LeFolls rather skeptical of me. :) I told them today that the reason I so loved hanging out with Sarah is because of how much joy and laughter she always brought with her, everywhere she went.

Anyway, I don’t know if they can read blogs in heaven… but I’ll miss you, Sarah. We all will.

Now I’m off to the airport for my interviews in Phoenix, which start bright and early tomorrow. What a week.

A Category 5 storm surge on the Texas coast:

“A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles.”

More on Jeff Master’s Blog and WeatherBlog.

Ed @ WeatherBlog

Before tragedy strikes and it’s a major faux pas to make jokes (is it too late already?), I’d like to point to the Daily Show’s coverage of Hurricane Rita. They have found an excellent reason for the intensity of this hurricane season: Global warming? No. Natural cycles? Nah. As Rob Corddry puts it, “God is just being a dick.” And why? Well, He New Orleans is known for fun, music, and food, and Key West is known for “gay sex and ceramic parrots”.

So maybe God is a Puritan, too.

Brian (Briandot)

The 5:00 AM discussion provides an excellent overview of what’s happening with Rita:

If Rita has not peaked in intensity…it looks like it is pretty close to doing so. The latest central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 897 mb…which shows little change during the past 8 hr. [The pressure has since risen to 907 mb, so this was definitely correct; Rita has peaked. -ed.] The maximum flight-level winds so far are 165 kt [190 mph] in the NE eyewall…which is only slightly higher than the 161 kt [185 mph] observed yesterday afternoon. The aircraft data shows a increasingly strong outer wind maximum that is likely the start of a concentric eyewall cycle…and satellite imagery since the end of the eclipse period shows warming of the convection near the center. Based on all of this…the initial intensity remains 150 kt [175 mph; reduced to 170 mph at 8am].

Rita has turned a little to the right during the past several hours and the initial motion is now 285/8. Rawinsonde data shows a strong mid-level ridge centered over Texas. Large-scale models forecast this ridge to shift eastward into the southeastern states and the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hr. This should allow Rita to turn more northward with time. The track guidance is now clustered around a landfall between the Sabine River and Matagorda Texas in 48-60 hr…with a net eastward shift of the guidance since the last package. The new forecast track is also shifted eastward about 30 N mi…calling for landfall near the Bolivar Peninsula and Galveston Bay. However…it should be noted that the new track is along the left or west side of the envelope of guidance.

The intensity forecast remains somewhat problematic. First…the more northerly track will likely keep Rita over The Loop current longer than previously expected…so the effect of lower ocean heat content may be somewhat less than previously expected in the first 24 hr or so. Second…the GFS and ship models forecast significant shear over Rita after 24 hr…which results in SHIPS calling for significant weakening. Shear analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin show about 12 kt of southerly shear caused by an upper-level anticyclone east of Rita…and the large-scale models suggest this pattern will continue until landfall. However…the GFS and SHIPS may be overdoing the shear. Finally…there will be at least one and possible more concentric eyewall cycles before landfall. The intensity forecast is based on the premise that shear and reduced outflow will cause a gradual weakening… especially after Rita moves west of The Loop current in 24-36 hr. Superimposed on top of this will be fluctuations caused by concentric eyewall cycles. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast…calling for slow overall weakening but not as much as shown by SHIPS.

Hurricane Rita remains a strong category five and will go in the record books as the third most intense hurricane according to pressure. There have been some important developments regarding the track. You can read more at www.myweatherblog.com.

UPDATE 4 AM:
Pressure has risen to 899 mb and the cloud tops on the satellite have warmed slightly. Hurricane Rita may have very well peaked and could weaken some this morning.
UPDATE 5 AM:
The lastest VORTEX shows the pressure at 897 mb! Read 5 AM NHC info.

UPDATE 7AM: Pressure up to 907…winds down to 170 mph.

“Well, that wasn’t fun.”

That’s what I said to Sean as I returned to my seat after going through the receiving line, paying my respects to Sarah and expressing my condolences to her parents. If there’s anything that can prepare you for the experience of kneeling in front of the open casket bearing the lifeless body of the girl you took to the prom five years earlier, I don’t know what it is. And if there’s anything remotely adequate that you can possibly say to the grieving parents who were robbed of their beautiful daughter far, far too soon, I don’t know what that would be, either.

Sarah’s wake was definitely one of the saddest events I’ve ever experienced. Not that I expected it to be otherwise, but as I said, nothing can really prepare you for such a thing. I don’t know if I have “closure,” but I know I won’t soon forget the profound sadness and confusion I felt while kneeling by the casket, trying to formulate some sort of a coherent prayer and pretty much failing miserably. I couldn’t decide what to say — or even who I was talking to: God or Sarah? Was I there to thank God for putting Sarah on this earth… or to thank Sarah for all the great memories and for being the angel she was… or to ask God to guide Sarah into heaven and give comfort to her family… or simply to say “goodbye” to Sarah? All of the above, I suppose, but I was shaken and shaking, and it was just a big mental jumble. Ah well, I suppose God can sort out what I meant (and forward the relevant portions to Sarah as appropriate). He is good at such things, or so I hear.

I ran into lots of old friends, of course, and old teachers, too. But, needless to say, there is very little joy in such a reunion. I can’t tell you how many awkward conversations I had that went approximately like this: “Hi, how are you?” “Good. Well, not good, but…” “Yeah, I know what you mean.” It had to be at least a dozen.

I truly can’t fathom what the family is going through. For the parents, it must be almost numbing to go through this whole process — making all the arrangements, receiving condolences for over three hours, etc. When do they have the time and space to grieve? And what about Sarah’s younger siblings? As incomprehensible as this is for all of us, it must be exponentially moreso for them. Poor things.

I would again ask everyone to keep Sarah’s family and close friends in their prayers. If I feel this emotionally stricken — I, someone who hadn’t been in regular touch with Sarah for years — it must be just unbearable for the dozens or hundreds who were closer to her than I. So please, pray for those people. Or if you don’t pray, at least keep them in your thoughts. They need every ounce of support and positive vibes that they can get.

And do something else for me: if there’s a person in your life who, once upon a time, meant a lot to you, but you’ve fallen out of touch with him or her over the years… give that person a call, or write them an e-mail, and see how they’re doing. Life is short, and friends and loved ones are infinitely precious.

Tomorrow comes the funeral and the burial. We’ll be singing “A Welsh Lullaby” at the former and “Amazing Grace” at the latter. My mom earlier today speculated that perhaps we can help Sarah’s soul find eternal rest with our musical tribute. I’m not sure if I believe that, but it’s a comforting thought. And those are hard to come by right now. :(

P.S. There was a touching slideshow of pictures of Sarah that was displayed from a projector throughout the wake. Included was a great picture of us at the prom. You can watch the video here, supposedly, though I can’t get it to work on my browser. (Linked from here.)

As noted below, Hurricane Rita is now the third most intense hurricane in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin:

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT…2323Z…INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB…OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE…WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB…AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES… A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED… WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

Wow.

P.S. Dr. Jeff Masters has more on the possibility of “additional deepening and intensification”:

Tonight, Rita will be passing over the Loop Current, a warm eddy of water in the Gulf that aided Katrina’s growth to a Category 5 hurricane. Fueled by this pool of deep warm water and an almost ideal upper level wind environment, Rita should continue to intensify until Thursday morning, when she will pass beyond the Loop Current. The eye has shrunk to 20 nm diameter from 25 nm earlier this afternoon. By the time the eye shrinks down to 10 nm, the eyewall will collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle begin, putting an end to this intensification cycle. With potentially another 12 hours to go before this happens, Rita could challenge Gilbert’s 888 mb pressure record.

Masters also discusses a real Texas nightmare scenario:

The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area. The models are not suggesting this at all, but is also possible that Rita may not make landfall on Saturday as expected, but pull up just short of the Texas coast and pound it for days as it waits for the next trough to pick her up. We’ll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow morning to know better.

Yikes.

Here’s a link for the latest recon data. When a new report comes in, you’ll want to watch line H (minimum central pressure, currently listed at 899 mb) and line P (maximum flight level wind, currently 161 knots or 185 mph).

UPDATE: Pressure down to 897 mb, winds up to 175 mph as of 11:00 PM advisory.