One week ago, at this very hour, Category 1 Hurricane Katrina was moving southwestward over the Florida peninsula, having taken an unexpected left turn that would, a few hours later, bring her back over the bathtub-like waters of the Gulf of Mexico much quicker and further south than had been forecasted.
The implications of emerging quicker than expected are obvious; she had less time to weaken over land, which made her stronger than forecast when she hit the Gulf waters, so she took less time to get re-organized and begin intensifying into a monstrous major hurricane. The implications of emerging further south than expected are perhaps slightly less apparent to the non-meteorologically inclined, but ultimately even more important: the southward drift meant Katrina’s track had shifted to the “left,” which, because of the near-inevitability of recurvature, translates to a landfall point further to the west.
Thus, at 11:09 PM on Thursday, I wrote:
What makes me nervous is that Katrina’s southwestward turn and refusal to weaken makes a New Orleans doomsday scenario considerably more plausible than it seemed just a few hours ago. Still unlikely, but more likely than it was.
Would that I had been wrong.
Alas, it took the media quite some time to catch on to what was happening. Even as the computer models shifted Friday morning to match my hunch, the MSM storyline was still “Katrina aims for second Florida landfall,” and God help ‘em, they were sticking with the storyline. Personally, I think this had something to do with the fact that it was a Friday in August, which is like the ultimate no-news day, so no one was paying attention. Regardless of the cause, people in Louisiana slept while their fates were sealed by upper-level steering currents.
Few people really started taking the New Orleans threat seriously until Saturday, and of course, the mandatory evacuation inexplicably was not ordered until Sunday. But for those who were paying attention, it was already apparent one week ago tonight that the deadly risk to New Orleans was increasing. (By early afternoon Friday, I would declare, “New Orleans in peril.” By Friday night, I would advise New Orleans residents to leave.)
Anyway… the point of this post isn’t to proclaim, “I told you so,” but rather, to make some crucial points relevant to the accountability debate. One of the things that is driving me absolutely nuts is seeing various talking heads asking why we “didn’t see this coming” and public officials (e.g., Governor Blanco) saying things like “This is worse than our worst fears.” News flash: NO, IT ISN’T!!! This exact scenario — in fact, one considerably worse, bizarre as that may seem — had been envisioned for years. And it wasn’t just seen as a possibility; it was seen, quite rightly, as a certainty. It was going to happen eventually. We knew this.
And yet now that it’s happened, some people who know better (or should) have the gall (or the inexcusable ignorance) to make public statements which pretend that the severity of this crisis was some unexpected bolt out of the blue, that it was worse than we thought it could be. That is a categorical lie, and we, the public, should not stand for it. I feel it is too early to get too much into the “blame game” at this point, but I will not countenance outright lies that will distort the public’s understanding of the accountability issues that much eventually be addressed.
If Governor Blanco had been reading my blog on September 14, 2004, she would have read a post called “Ivan: Worse than 9/11?,” in which I prayed that Ivan would make the predicted right-hand turn (which it ultimately did), because otherwise, New Orleans would face the apocalyptic scenario described in an article by the Times-Picayune some months earlier:
Emergency officials’ worst-case scenario [is] hundreds of billions of gallons of lake water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage.That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles.
Sound familiar? Now, tell me again how Katrina is “worse than our worst fears,” or how we “didn’t see it coming.”
In that same post about Ivan, I also boldfaced a quote from Jefferson Parish Emergency Preparedness Director Walter Maestri: “Imagine the city of New Orleans closed for four to six months.” Again: sound familiar? And I noted, “It’s going to happen eventually: ‘In a given year…the risk of the lakefront levees being topped is less than 1 in 300. But over the life of a 30-year mortgage, statistically that risk approaches 9 percent.’ So it’s a matter of ‘when,’ not ‘if.’ But here’s hoping — fervently hoping — that ‘when’ isn’t Thursday morning.”
As it turned out, of course, “when” was not that Thursday morning, but rather, this past Monday morning.
Looking back at my Ivan archives, a particularly prescient — and thus chilling — quote comes from this post: “I wonder how close the eye has to get to New Orleans before a sort of ‘apocalypse lite’ might occur, even without a direct hit by the right front quadrant.” That’s exactly what happened on Monday, and the resulting apocalyptic situation doesn’t seem very “lite,” does it?
A few more relevant posts about Ivan: here (”That giant sucking sound you hear is New Orleans holding its breath”), here (”the Big Easy dodges another bullet and survives its (eventually inevitable) nightmare scenario for another day”), here (”New Orleans survives to see another day. Thank God.”), and here (”Near-miss Ivan proves New Orleans isn’t ready for the Big One”). And then, earlier this year, as Dennis meandered in the Gulf, there was this post (”A direct hit on New Orleans by a major hurricane would, as we’ve discussed before, be very, very, very bad. Like 100,000 deaths bad. Like the complete destruction of an entire city bad. So, no matter where you live, pray that it goes somewhere other than New Orleans.”), this post (”A direct hit on New Orleans, the worst-case scenario for Hurricane Dennis, now appears extremely unlikely. Thank God.”), and this post (”there is no specific meteorological phenomenon that steers storms away from New Orleans and Mobile Bay. It just keeps happening, by pure dumb luck, and someday, inevitably, that luck is going to run out.”).
Again, the point of all this is not to say “I told you so” or to suggest that “I saw it coming when no one else did.” On the contrary, the point is that I, along with everyone else who was actually paying attention, saw this coming. Precisely this (indeed, something worse than this). And yet New Orleans fiddled and did nothing to protect its citizens from the inevitable.
I’ll leave it at that, for now, and not get into which “heads should roll,” because as I said, I feel it’s a bit early for the full-on “blame game” (though I reserve the right to change my mind about that at any time :). But, bottom line, don’t let anyone deceive you into thinking that the full scope of this tragedy was unforeseen or unforeseeable. It was foreseeable and it was foreseen — every last awful detail of it.
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Categories: Hurricane Katrina,
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September 1st, 2005 at 11:53:25 pm
When I read your warnings I knew this was going to be BAD I know you were right…
And It amazes me that the “Officials” are playing dumb…
How …just how can this be happening in AMRERICA…
September 1st, 2005 at 11:59:01 pm
OMFG, they are turning away the buses from the Astrodome!!!
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:00:57 am
It seems like when an official is asked directly why all the foul-up in getting help to the storm victims, the response is “this is not the time to blame, blah, blah, blah.”
I do not think people asking questions to try to ascertain where the failure is occurring, to seek accountability, to perhaps thereby correct the problem, should be construed as “blame”. Seems like we are talking about two different things.
One is a moot point that will be debated for years (blame), and one may end up saving a life (legit questions and seeking accountability).
And what drives me nuts is this response of “we have to be patient…” Tell that to the people who are slowly dying from ineptitude.
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:06:48 am
http://blog.myweatherguide.com/archives/2005/09/heads_should_roll.html
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:07:10 am
While the city of Baton Rouge is denying a serious problem with the evacuees streaming into the area, I’m not so confident.
This article posted at www.2theadvocate.com (the website of the Baton Rouge Advocate newspaper and WBRZ Channel 2 (ABC affiliate)) doesn’t reassure me that things are all hunky-dory like Mayor Holden or Police Chief LeDuff claim.
State legislators appeal to governor for relief for Baton Rouge
Capitol news bureau
The Baton Rouge legislative delegation is waiting to meet with Gov. Kathleen Blanco at this hour to plead for relief for Baton Rouge.
Rep. Michael Jackson, D-Baton Rouge, said at 12:40 p.m. Thursday that the group of local legislators want the governor to stop the influx of evacuees to Baton Rouge. The delegation wants Blanco to send refugees to Alexandria, Shreveport and Monroe.
ìWe are at capacity,î Jackson said. ìWe want to try to stop a lot of whatÃs going on south of Baton Rouge from happening in Baton Rouge.î
Federal troops have been dispatched to New Orleans, which has been racked by violence and looting as police focus on saving people stranded by rising flood waters. The state has been moving people who sought shelter in evacuation centers, like the 23,000 stranded in the Louisiana Superdome, and 10,000 more in hospitals.
Though many evacuees were to be bused to Texas, some ended up in Baton Rouge shelters instead. Several of the local shelters have had to stop accepting new refugees because of overcrowding.
State Sen. Clo Fontenot, R-Livingston, wants a military presence in Baton Rouge to provide security. He recommends that Blanco ask the U.S. Army to open Fort Polk to evacuees.
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:09:50 am
This scenario has been known to be a possibility for well over a decade - I recall watching a National Geographic special titled “Cyclones” back in ‘95, and in the hurricane section they had an animation of what would happen if a Cat 5 hurricane hit NOLA. The only difference from what’s actually happened is they thought the water would pour over the levees, as it would have with a 20′-25′ storm surge into the lake, rather than from a levee breach, but the result has been the same.
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:13:59 am
yessir brendan. we saw it coming, those who pay a little attention– some folks had a fuller understanding but anybody with a brain knew it was a big, big risk for Nola.
my guess would be not too many Exxon or Halliburton fatcat families living in the low-lying areas…….
on that note, please accept my apologies if anyone is truly offended; Folks, everyone together now push the “Delete Bush Administration” button.
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:14:18 am
I forwarded one of your posts to friends and sadly was proven right
Sunday, August 28, 2005 12:39 AM
I have a really bad feeling about this one
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:21:08 am
Brendan,
First of all, I join the many folks who thank you for providing such a great service. This is an amazing story that unfolds in incredible ways every hour, and your blog has been indispensible.
Second - I am no meteorologist but I also wonder where the alarm was. On Friday evening (I recall), Katrina was a gathering Cat. 4 whose landfall had been narrowed to Louisiana - Pensacola, with Biloxi the primary target. The Weather Channel made casual reference to likely property damage on the Gulf Coast - but raised no alarms about the flooding possibility in New Orleans. That sticks out for me since my wife (also no weather person) and I wondered that night if we missed something important, if there was some reason New Orleans didn’t need to worry, and the problem was just that we were too “weather ignorant” to understand some obvious reason why NO shouldn’t be worried.
One other thing - here is an article from Sunday’s Times-Picayune. You can feel the panic in the city.
http://www.nola.com/search/index.ssf?/base/library-87/1125211870249320.xml?nola
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:21:30 am
Yeah, check out this post from 2 months ago:http://www.livejournal.com/users/baikonur/345112.html
What surprised me was how long it took for people to get an accurate idea of landfall. As late as Friday morning-afternoon, my wife and I were still thinking it was going into Florida, based on media reports we were casually paying attention to.
It wasn’t until Friday night, after we had gone out to dinner and were chatting at home with friend, that we happpened to flip to a local tv station that showed a convergence of 5 hurricane tracks on New Orleans.
We started making preparations within 15 minutes, grabbed a few hours of sleep, and left at 9AM Saturday morning.
It disturbs me that you were reporting on this as early as Thursday- and we were paying what we thought was fairly close attention to the whole thing. Many people I knew down there didn’t ever seem to give a damn about hurricanes. I can imagine that many of them wouldn’t start to understand the magnitude of the threat until it was nearly too late. (And as we’ve seen, lots of people- including friends of mine- chose not to evacuate.)
I think while people are starting to point fingers, the meteorological community ought to ask itself where they dropped the ball. One of the biggest exacerbating factors here was lack of notice/time.
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:27:43 am
I wonder if the nonchalant attitude by the media towards Katrina trickled down to the residents, and maybe government officials, of New Orleans. It’s like they assumed Katrina would burn itself out at Florida and disappear. Even when it hit the gulf again, I think they were like the Russian Roulette player who figured they’d been lucky their first five turns, so their luck would last forever.
I also note that the “nobody knew” line is bogus. The Times-Picayune headline shouted disaster from the moment they heard the levy had been breached. Why didn’t any one else, even people who should definitely have known, take that breach seriously and started getting people out of harm’s way?
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:28:06 am
Residents of New Orleans have known about this possibility forever. A decade or so ago a friend failed to talk her mother into leaving as a hurricane approached. She was keenly aware of the danger, had heard about it all her life. The storm veered off and weakened, barely scratched New Orleans, and that was good for a round of “I told you so” on the other side.
We keep hearing that many people couldn’t leave, and that’s undoubtedly true, but I suspect that most people who didn’t evacuate just didn’t. They knew intellectually that this could happen - common knowledge, all that - but they just figured it wouldn’t. We see those who ended up trapped because they were in low-lying areas that flooded quickly, but I guarantee there were many more who left when it became clear the water was rising.
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:38:01 am
The National Hurricane started to peg Louisiana as early as the 11 am advisory on Friday: “THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE MADE A
LARGE JUMP TO THE WEST OVER LOUISIANA.”
By 11 pm, they were advising, “THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.”
I’m not a media basher, but they always seem to focus on the red line, not the cone, much to the detriment of their audience. We should learn from this…those of us that live in hurricane-prone areas should read the NHC public advisory and discussion statements for ourselves.
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:41:07 am
And we have to remember that hurricanes wobble….look at Andrew, Charley, and even Katrina when it hit FL. It was supposed to hit Fort Lauderdale and go straight across the state; instead, it went south, diagonally, across Miami.
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:49:04 am
- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE ON KATRINA/NEW ORLEANS -
It may be, that the United States is without the city of New Orleans,
which we’ve had since the early 19th Century as a great American
city. This is not an exaggeration. Former Marc Mayor Morial is
quoted saying, that, “We’ve lost our city. I fear it’s
potentially like Pompeii.” And similarly, the New York Times, in
its lead editorial, “New Orleans in Peril,” says that “it looks
as if rescuing New Orleans will be a task much more daunting than
{any} city has faced, since the San Francisco fire of 1906. It
must be a mission for all of us.” But the question is whether the
Bush Administration, which is sitting on its hands in this
situation, is going to measure up to the challenge.
With Bush still not in Washington–he didn’t arrive until 4
p.m. today–. Or, let me begin earlier, actually, and then get
to that.
[reading] “New Orleans, of course, has long known it was
vulnerable to flooding caused by a hurricane, and local and state
officials have worked with the U.S. government on flood-control
projects since the 1930s, when Roosevelt directed the Army Corps
to build the tremendous flood-control system on the lower
Mississippi, and throughout New Orleans. When flooding from a
massive rainstorm in May ‘95 killed six people, the U.S. Congress
authorized a Southeast Louisiana Urban Flood-Control Project, or
SELA. Over the next 10 years, the Army Corps spent $340 million
of SELA funds, on shoring up levees and building pumping
stations, with $50 million in local aid. But at least another
$250 million crucial SELA projects still have to be built. But in
2004, Bush’s U.S. Office of Management and Budget cut SELA
funding by 65%, down to a little less than $11 million per year.
“Further, the Army Corps is directing the Lake Ponchartrain
vicinity hurricane protection project, a similar $50 million
project to build up levees and protection for pumping stations,
on the eastern bank of the Mississippi River in Orleans, St.
Bernard, and Jefferson Parishes [counties]. For 2005, the Army
Corps needed at minimum $20 million to complete vital project
work. The Bush Administration slashed appropriations to only $3.9
million.” And this is where the levees and then the pumps were
overwhelmed by the floods,– precisely where this incompleted
contstruction, incompleted thanks to this administration, was
going on at that moment.
“In June 2004, as the hurricane season was starting, Al
Naomi, project manager for the Army Corps in New Orleans and
southern Louisiana, went before a local flood-dcontrol agency
that is part of the New Orleans flood-control system, the East
Jefferson Levee Authority, to beg for $2 million for urgent work.
He had been unable to get the money from [Office of Budget and
Management]. He told the group, `The system is in good shape, but
the levees are sinking. Everything is sinking, and if we don’t
get the money fast enough to raise them, we can’t stay ahead of
the settlement that’s raising the water level. The problem that
we have, isn’t that the levee is low, but that federal funds have
dried up so we can’t raise them.’
“He was able to get the funds for this project”–that is,
the $2 million–”but because of the Bush OMB cuts during 2004 and
‘05, he had to wage guerrilla war to get the money to keep
the system minimally functioning.”
And this is where it’s failed, where Bush’s OMB cut the
budget.
Now, given the fact that the National Guard has been
severely attrited in the whole area, they have only about 60% of
their National Guard, and less than 60% of its equipment, about
40%-45% of the National Guard of the three affected states, is in
Iraq. So, the National Guard is unable to do what it would
otherwise do.
At long last, the Bush Administration has brought the
military proper into action, the Navy and the Army and the Air
Force, all three, but they didn’t do so, until yesterday. So, a
press conference under Chertoff, the Secretary of Homeland
Security–with Bush still not in Washington–about 2 p.m. this
afternoon, Chertoff and others at the press conference announced
that they have a lot of plans to move military equipment and help
into the area, but, in fact, as of this afternoon, there was no
military equipment, or help, in the area, from the Army, the
Navy, or the Air Force. The Coast Guard was on the scene, as they
have been since the beginning, as is the Army Corps. And Chertoff
says, that the Coast Guard has rescued 1,000 people. But the
effort under the other services is just getting under way. No
assets are in the area, as Chertoff has promised that they would
be brought in, but for the most part, he didn’t even know exactly
when; it will be several days.
Now, 1,000 people have been rescued by the Coast Guard,
others have been rescued by local police, by neighbors, by
various forces, the total number is really not known.
New Orleans housed about 550,000 people. They were ordered
to evacuate, but estimates are that upwards of 100,000 did not,
not so much because they didn’t want to, but because they
couldn’t. Greyhound shut down, many people have no automobiles,
or the roads were flooded–there was no way actually, to get out,
and no place to go.
So, it seems, according to the best accounts we can find,
there were about 100,000 people to be rescued. How many have been
rescued? Well, the Coast Guard has rescued 1,000; some forces
have rescued others. A lot of the Navy and other forces being
sent to the area, will be rescue forces, such as boat rescue
forces to rescue people from the tops of their houses by boats
and so forth–they’re not there, yet.
So, how many are dying now, and how many will die before
they’re rescued because this mobilization has taken the Bush
Administration so long? It even took Bush so long to cut short
his vacation by a day or two and arrive in Washington about an
hour and a half ago.
The city of New Orleans is 80% under water, and much of the
water is as much as 20 feet high. And the water contains all the
city’s raw sewage, and apparently thousands of corpses washing
around in it. Rescue workers are ordered not to do anything about
the corpses, because there’s no way to handle them. So they’re
just sloshing around amid the sewage and everything, which has
submerged the city.
Now, contrary to the assurances of the Washington Post,
which says you can’t have cholera or typhoid, because it doesn’t
exist in this country, the Centers for Disease Control is
extremely concerned about exactly cholera and typhoid. And
medical teams which are sent to the area, will attempt to deal
with that. But the whole mobilization, is a far cry from that
with which, years ago, under the Clinton Administration (if I
remember that’s what it was), the U.S. military brought
sanitation and clean water to Uganda across the world in Africa,
with a very rapid, quickly organized movement, which saved
thousands of lives. That’s not what’s going on here,
unfortunately.
Now, after several days of attempts, you had breaks in two
levees around New Orleans, which flooded the city which is below
sea level. And one of those breaks started at 20 feet wide; it’s
now estimated at 500 feet wide. The other is not as wide. This
flooding, flooded out the pumps, which are being used to pump
water out, so all that pumping has stopped.
The Army Corps dropped various objects into the gaps in the
levees to attempt to repair them, unsuccessfully. And what
they’re doing now, is waiting for the flood waters surrounding
the city, in the lake, which is really a bay, and the ocean to
subside, so that then the levees will be higher and they can then
repair them. They expect that the water level will be low enough
to do that by Friday.
So, I suppose there’s probably more to say about it: This is
an unparalleled man-aided natural catastrophe, as far as I
understand, for the United States. And it’s clear that if some
simple things had been done, which were on the drawing boards for
years, and which should have been completed today–that whole
SELA project I discussed was supposed to be completed in 2005–if
that had not been sabotaged by the Bush Administration, while
there might be something you might characterize as a natural
disaster, it would be nothing of the magnitude we’re seeing
today, where, it seems to me accurate to say: that our country
stands to lose a major city, which has been a part of this
country since the Louisiana Purchase.
That is the major update for today.
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:49:45 am
While I agree that the doomsday scenario has long been an issue (I knew about it when I lived there from 85-91), please allow me to play the contrarian here (although I do share the objections to the banalities of the politicians).
First of all, the scenario we are witnessing was NOT envisioned by anyone. This was NOT the “doomsday” scenario for New Orleans of levees topped during a Cat5 hurricane, with massive amounts of water quickly inundating the city as the eyewall crossed the city. With the raging floodwaters from that scenario(literally 20 foot waves sweeping across the city), there would be massive destruction of property and loss of life. The day following the hurricane would not be spent rescuing people because there would be few to rescue. Looting would not be an issue because the entire city would be covered with water and there would be few living souls and little in the way of surviving property. In many ways, that scenario’s a much simpler thing to deal with — all you need to do is cut off access to the city with the National Guard, keep the people out, blow holes in the levees to begin draining the city and begin cleaning things up.
I’ve come to believe that what did occur is the “nightmare scenario,” if not the doomsday one. The city suffers a glancing blow by a Cat4 storm. The initial damage assessment is that the city got lucky, so people let their guards down. I would not be surprised if we learn in the months to come that the much of the massive FEMA presence mobilized North of the city was shunted by Monday evening to Southern Mississippi, which actually suffered far more at the hands of the actual storm — entire towns wiped clean off the earth. [If FEMA wasn’t doing that Monday evening, and the levee did not breach, the residents of Mississippi would justifiably be screaming that FEMA failed them.] After our guard is down (and possibly assets were diverted), the city was sucker punched by a delayed flood due to the 17th Street Canal breach. Now the city floods in slow motion, which means that a whole bunch of people that would have been dead in the doomsday scenario need rescuing instead, a whole bunch of people are flushed from their homes and have lost everything yet are trapped in the city, and there’s a whole lot of property to save. Resources that were not envisioned to be used for rescue are now diverted to that mission. In the meantime, all the evacuees are sitting on the outside, looking in, and seeing property that, while wet, is salvagable and clamoring to restore order so they can return; whereas in the doomsday scenario, they would be seeing massive piles of timber and floating houses and they would be clamoring for the bulldozers to get in and start cleaning up so that the rebuilding process can begin.
Instead of 20,000 to 40,000 body bags (remember that doomsday quote?) you’ve got a need for 20,000 to 40,000 gallons of potable water per day, just for the people who didn’t evacuate.
Instead of people working to clear streets, you need a massive troop presence in the city.
Instead of lining up convoys of equipment to enter the city, you are lining up convoys of buses to evacuate the city.
Instead of blowing holes in the levee, we are tryig to plug the levee. Etc., etc.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that the true doomsday scenario would have been better — the loss of life in that scenario would make what is happening in NOLA now, brutal as it is, insignificant; and the property damage would have been far, far greater as hard as that is to fathom — but I do say that it would have been much easier in many ways to deal with. And no one planned to deal with what we got instead.
The CAT5 storm hitting New Orleans was clearly predicted and foreseeable. But the way the tragedy unfolded was not foreseen (perhaps it was foreseeable with a little out-of- the-box thinking, but no one is claiming “I told you so” about this particular scenario that I know of). And the actual planning for doomsday was not sufficient to prepare us for what actually happened.
It’s like a football team preparing for the Patriot’s defense based upon films, but then finding out on game day they’ve switched to a new defensive scheme. You new they were good, you prepared for what you expected, but the switch completely throws the team off, at least until halftime when there is a chance to regroup. NOLA is about to have its half time. I feel pretty confident that despite a lousy first half, the second half will be much better. Unfortunately, the second half is going to last five years, whereas the first half might last as long as five days!
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:52:12 am
Just a thought I want to throw out there…
If we ever get off our asses and finish evacuating the city, wouldn’t it be prudent to evaluate the situation before we start pumping water willy nilly into the lake, river, and ocean, thereby causing an even greater environmental disaster?
September 2nd, 2005 at 12:54:02 am
Gravatar I can not believe this is AMERICA how is this possible?
For the first time in my life I am ashamed of my country, My Government, My Leaders.
This situation is not acceptable.
I have this terrible feeling that people are looking away from this tragedy … because
the people who lay dead and dyeing are the poor and dare I say Black Americans.
I can not look away and I will not forgive the leaders for allowing this to happen.
Here we are 5-6 days after the storm… people are failing, dyeing… and where are the busses to take them to safety?
September 2nd, 2005 at 1:02:37 am
The state of Louisiana paid the Saints 12.4 Million in July. But they needed federal funds for the levees?
September 2nd, 2005 at 1:10:17 am
As a follow up to my earlier comment, if you want to see what NOLA would have looked like had it received storm surge coming over the levee, check out what NOLA looks like post storm with what the MS Gulf Coast and Biloxi look like. As I posted, had we had doomsday, NOLA would be looking like Mississippi, and there would be no rescue operation or looting control necessary:
http://www.digitalglobe.com/images/katrina/Hurricane_Katrina-New_Orleans.pdf
http://www.digitalglobe.com/images/katrina/Hurricane_Katrina-Mississippi_Coastline.pdf
http://www.digitalglobe.com/images/katrina/Hurricane_Katrina-Biloxi.pdf
September 2nd, 2005 at 1:18:23 am
Why do people keep saying it’s been 5-6-7 days since the storm? It’ll be four days since landfall in a few hours. It’s been about three days since the levee broke.
The buses are there, getting people to the buses is apparently the bottleneck - though not as much as one might think, given that the Astrodome is already at capacity. Many, many, millions of dollars have been donated by corporations and private citizens, and the federal government has set aside $10.5 billion for recovery efforts. Probably hundreds of thousands of people have already arrived to attempt to help, despite the logistical challenges involved in reaching an area flattened by a hurricane, and including a thousand or so boat owners who trailed their boats to New Orleans from all over the place, just because they thought they could help get people out of the city and onto dry land.
What a crappy, racist, country this is, looking away from what happened because the victims are poor and, dare I say, Black Americans. I’m embarassed, too.
September 2nd, 2005 at 1:28:16 am
Below is a copy of my email to NOAA:
Who was looking out for the people on the Mississippi Gulf Coast? Obviously not the folks at NOAA!!! They were again lulled to sleep by you people and your prediction of a strike to the west of New Orleans.
But again Katrina turned right and missed New Orleans to the east side probably avoiding the worse case for it. Hurricanes do that because the counterclockwise winds hitting the resistance of the land spin it to the right just like a spinning top against a wall.
An old boat captain who used to be a weatherman here told us that years ago and it has been backed up by years of observation, but the “experts” never seem to take it into account. That’s why Charlie could have never gone up the Florida coast into Tampa Bay as the so-called experts predicted. They were wrong again. When you people were predicting that Katrina would again go up the west coast of Florida, I told everybody who would listen that we could take heart in the fact that you people are almost always wrong, especially when the hurricane is that far away.
Why didn’t you people alert the people of the Mississippi Gulf Coast to this right turn tendency?
If it had not turned north, New Orleans would have been destroyed just like the Mississippi Coast was by the same tidal surge. With that 20-30 foot surge going into the Lake, it would have come over the levee so fast that those that are now being rescued from their roofs would have drowned before they could get to the roof and the city would all be completely under water.
The ineptness of your organization just continues to make me angry, as it should every other person in this country.
Wm. Duncan McQuagge
Panama City, FL
contraryscotsman@yahoo.com
P.S. This is a copy of my email to Todd.Spindler@noaa.gov of August 14, 2004:
Dear Eggheads:
The people of Charlotte County should be very angry at the eggheads we pay to predict the path of this hurricane. There is NO WAY that this path should have been predicted to go into Tampa Bay. It is virtually impossible for a hurricane to skirt the west coast of Florida and keep going due north. This prediction lulled the people of central Florida south of Tampa to sleep and left them mostly unprepared for a direct hit.
Every old boat captain in Florida worth his salt knows that the counterclockwise winds of a hurricane will cause it to veer east/right as soon as the winds hit the resistance of the shoreline, just like a spinning top hitting a wall. There was also a cold front approaching from the north which aided the eastward move. A glance at the map of the hurricane’s path shows when it started curving to the east–just as the strong winds started making landfall.
If I can sit here at my computer and make this prediction, why is it so difficult for the PHD’s to figure it out? I warned my friends in central Florida on Thursday, “I don’t see how Charlie can take the path right up the west coast like they are predicting. If Capt. Norm is right, as he has always been by my observation, the storm will veer off to the east, when the counterclockwise winds start hitting the west coast shore, and go across the state toward your direction.” Bonnie did the same thing up here. It was predicted to come in at Panama City but veered to the east and went over toward Apalachee Bay.
Some heads at NOAA and the National Hurricane Center should roll over this foolish mistake that caused such a tragic loss of life and property.
William D. McQuagge
September 2nd, 2005 at 1:39:06 am
I don’t see any support for the idea that America is looking away because the victims are black. Can you back that up with anything except a hunch? Because I definitely have not gotten that sense. The 30,000 visitors/day on my site certainly aren’t “looking away.” But if some people are indeed “looking away,” I’d say it’s more because they’re too horrified to watch.
Excellent comment, Andy Simpson. I’m going to link to it from the homepage. I wasn’t thinking of it in exactly that way, but you are exactly, spot-on right.
September 2nd, 2005 at 2:16:22 am
Why the Bush bashing? Is GW Bush the Governor of Louisiana? Is he the Mayor of New Orleans? Is he your daddy and your mommy all rolled into one? Where was the Governor, legislature and Mayor the last 10 years? Why weren’t they taking this seriously instead of crying on cue, biting their lips and pointing the finger at Washington for their own criminal ineptness?
September 2nd, 2005 at 5:07:19 am
Rosalinda - this seems to put the National Guard part into better perspective …
LA Nat Guard Numbers
Of course, it doesn’t address why we don’t see the Nat Guard doing much yet … but that’s a subject for several other rants …
September 2nd, 2005 at 5:49:10 am
I have to say this looks a lot like what happen when we rolled into Iraq .No food, No water No security.
I am not being political I am just saying our capacity to deliver what is needed in a crisis is NO WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE. If you switched the scenario and added TERRORISTS have blown the levee and the city has been flooded would things have been done different? Would there be water trucks in N.O. right now. Would there be 100,000 National Guard called up to active duty overnight and sent to assist in relief efforts. Would there be medical sites set up? Would there be food to distribute to civilians. Would there be generator powered lights.
Do you believe if this were done by terrorists would things have played out the same. If so then there is SOMETHING VERY WRONG. If you think that things would have been handled better if it were terrorists then there is SOMETHING VERY WRONG. If you think in either situation that this is the best we could do there is SOMETHING VERY WRONG. When I see a dead lady in a wheel chair on the side walk with a sheet over her 3 days after help should have been there, there is SOMETHING VERY WRONG.
I could have delivered more supplies in the first day in a ford ranger than the entire us government and I live 8 hours away.
I say that in jest.
I wonder how many National Guard units are with in 12 hours of N.O.? They could have been ordered to their respective units and been sent and arrived within 24 hours to do what ever they could if thatÃs what they really are ìNational Guardî.There are only 1,200 guard in N.O right now as I type this. If you canÃt deploy the ìNational Guardî within 24 hours there is SOMETHING VERY WRONG.
I also suspect that c rations are not there in the numbers needed because of the deployment in Iraq. I bet the massive amounts c rations that are needed are in a warehouse in Baghdad somewhere.
I would further add that with some 500,000 plus refugees a push should be made to use stadiums all over the country to house these people. Postpone football, basketball games and house these people NOW. They have made arrangements for a very small amount of people and there are many more to go. Texas is going to be tapped out soon. Many others need to step up to the plate. There are thousands of school buses that can be used to transport people. Hell the amount of buses in Texas alone could move 500,000 people.I donÃt see anyone thinking outside the box. I can hear all the excuses of why this or that cant be done.
THE TIME FOR EXCUSES IS OVER!
ITS TIME TO GET THE JOB DONE.
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
ONE FOR ALL AND ALL FOR ONEÖÖÖÖÖÖÖ
.
September 2nd, 2005 at 6:07:52 am
Wm. Duncan McQuagge, your e-mail to the NHC is absurd. Katrina was forecasted extremely well; it followed their forecast track almost exactly. They were warning the entire Gulf coast to be prepared for a direct hit, including the Mississippi coast; they didn’t “lull anyone to sleep.” I feel quite sorry for them, that they have to read such angry bs after doing an excellent job.
P.S. Just because a bunch of seaboat captains think they know something, does not necessarily mean it’s true. It’s easy to ignore the many counterexamples that exist when you’re constructing a theory based on anecdotes rather than scientific evidence. The hurricane experts in the National Hurricane Center know MUCH more about hurricane behavior than you or I. Period.
September 2nd, 2005 at 8:36:38 am
And now Hastert says “don’t rebuild.” Smart man. If they do rebuild, and another hurricane hits in a year, what then?
I’d say just rebuild French quarter and Garden District. What poor people would return there? For what? Texas will offer them more jobs and a better life.
September 2nd, 2005 at 9:00:22 am
This is perhaps another discussion, but for those of us who like to apply lessons learned to the future: What does this show us about the aftermath of a major earthquake in the United States? Are we going to be able to decontaminate thousands or millions of people in an urban area after a bio-terror attack? What if a major wildfire was about to sweep through a major urban city?
September 2nd, 2005 at 1:11:41 pm
Atually, sal, this shows us very little about the aftermath of a major earthquake. It’s a lot safer to clean up immediately after an earthquake than it is from a flood–not only do you not have a toxic lake continually breaking down what remains of the structural integrity of the buildings that survived the first hit, you also don’t have an elecrically-conducive medium making every downed power line potentially lethal at a substantial radius. The day after an earthquake, the power company can shut off all the downed lines, and bulldozing of rubble can begin. Survey of damage and location/evacuation of the trapped begins almost immediately. With a flood, there’s basically nothing that can be done about the physical environment until the water is removed. And since you can begin cleaning up right away after an earthquake, many fewer people end up stranded without food and water, and for a much shorter period of time, as there’s a lot more manueverability for the rescue workers. Much of the same applies to the after effects of a fire–the fire is an immediate damage, but not an on-going one like a flood is. Floods are just very different scenarios from basically any other natural disaster.
September 2nd, 2005 at 3:34:42 pm
Actually katrina was within 15 miles of the predicted track — extremely good forecast.
Also not noted by many, Katrina became a category 3 by the time it hit New Orleans. This was a big storm, but not “the Category 5 we couldn’t prepare for”
September 2nd, 2005 at 4:43:25 pm
I live on the Texas coast…our local hurricane preparedness starts at the end of spring. All the notifications say “Have 5 days of food & water set aside for each person…it may take at least 5 days for help to arrive”. Did we have that much set aside…No (about 2 days). We always thought we’d evacuate…the day before landfall. Was our family evacuation plan soon enough…No. Have we learned? Yes.
As you might guess from my nickname, I’m married to a soldier…active duty…attached to a Reserve Unit. The only thing that has gone swiftly is the activation & deployment of the military…it only took 3 days from the levee failure to get into New Orleans. That’s remarkable…(There’s not a standing force of 20,000 just waiting in their huge trucks loaded with supplies to roll somewhere…whether there’s a war or not…). Sadly, the “failure” of response was at the Local level in New Orleans…the city government was not prepared or their plan just failed.
But for the Grace of God in the eastward turn of Katrina, all those people in the Superdome & in the streets of New Orleans…would be dead. I have family in Mississippi and I was praying for the storm to hit there…because as huge as the death toll will be…it’s significantly smaller than it could have been. There will be a “Next Time”, perhaps worse than Katrina…hopefully we’ve all learned.
September 2nd, 2005 at 6:18:45 pm
SergeantsLady, I live in NW Houston, and you can bet that from now on, I’m taking anything that gets into the Gulf EXTREMELY seriously.
On my items to purchase are flashlight, batteries, water, cat food, pop tarts, peanut butter, a hand-crank radio (with cell phone attachment).
And, quite likely, a firearm. Just in case I run into the kind of trash we’re seeing in NO.
September 2nd, 2005 at 6:19:31 pm
Oh, and a bottle of Maker’s Mark.
September 2nd, 2005 at 7:50:22 pm
“The hurricane experts in the National Hurricane Center know MUCH more about hurricane behavior than you or I. Period.”
Then why is it that they consistantly miss these right turns when the counterclockwise winds start striking land?–Charlie, Bonnie, Katrina, and every other one that has hit the Gulf Coast.
They did not predict a strike to the east of New Orleans until the last minute and several people on the Mississippi Gulf Coast have stated that they were told it would go to the west of New Orleans and therefore they were not afraid to stay in their homes. They were lulled to sleep just like the folks in Punta Gorda.
September 4th, 2005 at 8:02:57 pm
“Actually katrina was within 15 miles of the predicted track — extremely good forecast.”
Obviously, you were not following all the different forcasts of stike points after it started northwest.
September 4th, 2005 at 10:44:37 pm
Amidst all the finger-pointing at the federal government, one photo I saw a couple days ago illustrated the real culprits.
Hundreds of submerged school buses.
Ask the mayor why those buses were not used to evacuate the people BEFORE Katrina hit.