The ever sharp CNN has an article with the headline Katrina might affect Louisiana politics. Well, duh.
But I admit that I wasn’t expecting where it went from there; I had expected it to say something about the idiot mayor and weak governor, and how they’ll probably be out of a job next time ’round. Really, though, they’re not talking about just Louisiana politics, but rather Texas politics as well. Specifically, given the long term evacuation of New Orleans and the likelyhood that some refugees will simply stay where they are, voting patterns in a few places are likely to change. For instance, New Orleans may become more Republican, both because of the ineptitude of the Democratic mayor as well as the fact that those with the wherewithall to rebuild are demographically more likely to be Republican voters. Baton Rouge, certain parts of Mississippi, and places like Houston, however, will have seen an enormous influx of poor and underprivileged — historically Democratic voters.
Texas, specifically, is the interesting case: according to the article, the vast majority of elected offices are held by Republicans, but not by much of a margin; the influx of potentially permanent Democratic voters may tip what is already a shaky electorate.
It will, of course, take time to see how refugee demographics play out in the long term. It might also be time for some more gerrymandering redistricting.
Brian (Briandot)
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Categories: Hurricane Katrina
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September 11th, 2005 at 6:59:02 pm
With any luck Tom DeLay will be voted out of office by his new constituents.
September 11th, 2005 at 8:43:59 pm
“…But I admit that I wasn’t expecting where it went from there…”
Well, I must Modestly admit that I Was. :) I’ve been waiting for this rather obvious Point to Percolate up through the Big-time MSM’s Pot. :> Yes, in due course this one’s gonna become yet another post-Katrina Biggie.
Two days ago this guy, an Orlando Sentinel opinion writer, was the first Journalist I saw addressing the matter, albeit rather Coldly and I suspect a bit Tendentiously. Today’s Los Angeles Times has an excellent article on it which, unlike the CNN /AP piece, covers some of the complicated (and as always, Non-uniform :) State-by-State and Federal Election Law questions which will be crucial, and to many of which there are (of course :) presently No Answers. Small excerpt:
Civil rights groups are focused on keeping track of Louisiana’s displaced black voters and on ensuring that they can continue to vote in the districts they left behind until they make a decision to permanently resettle elsewhere.
Yes, but you see, you don’t necessarily HAVE to “make a decision to permanently resettle” in a given state ~ say, just for example, Texas :) ~ in order to become eligible to Register there (thus relinquishing, of course, any Prior registration elsewhere). But of course the particular Eligibility requirements, re Bona Fide Residence and related matters, do vary ~ within certain Federal limits ~ by state.
So my politico-legal Question at the moment is: while Louisiana Democrats are battling to Freeze the NOLA voting rolls pre-Katrina and to find a workable system for Importing the evacuees’ ballots from Hither & Yon, have the Texas Democrats been admitted to the Astrodome yet to distribute the Voter Registration forms as part of the friendly Welcome Packages?
See? It IS gonna be a Biggie. :>
From the AP piece:
Ray Nagin, the Democratic mayor of New Orleans, is up for re-election in February. No one knows if the city could even hold an election by then.
Yes he is and No they don’t. Actually it’s Primary Feb. 4, General March 4, City Council (5 from Districts, 2 At Large) as well as Mayoralty. Feb. 4 is little more than 4-1/2 months from now. Gonna be very very tough to do.
Shreveport Times, Sept. 8 (scroll down a bit, it’s not just about Teacher’s Salaries) ~
…the Legislature likely will be called into special session to deal with a wide array of Katrina-related issues, [Louisiana Senate President Don “Doc”] Hines [D-Bunkie :][sic :], said.
“There are revenue concerns, whether we’re going to allow people in the Astrodome to vote in Louisiana elections — we’re certainly going to have to postpone some elections — and any number of things. It’s going to be devastating.”
Hm. / I suppose it’s my Duty to form a Flying Squad of Retired State Elections Officers to go on down there and Git ‘er Done. / Um. Can I Weasel out by pleading I never Worked with Napoleonic Election Law? Rmmph. ;>
September 11th, 2005 at 11:01:59 pm
No offense, but I hardly think 10,000 - 20,000 additional voters will be influencing any elections in Texas.
And as for your gerrymandering, one has only to look at Chicago politics and the redrawing of ward maps by **gasp*** Democratic **gasp** alderman looking to keep their seats.
September 12th, 2005 at 3:44:59 am
But, Joe ! I thought you helped to *write* Napoleonic Election Law ?
Isn’t that how you tell us Boney got his heartburn - hence the need for hte hand over the stomach ?
(innocent grin)
September 12th, 2005 at 8:09:59 am
No offense, but 10,000 - 20,000 is significant when there is only a 4% margin. If each congressional district represents ~650,000 people, but only 40-60% of them vote, you’re starting to see statistically signicant numbers there.
As for the gerrymandering, I agree that Chicago saw its share of it; but Chicago is a smaller place than four-hundred-mile long swaths of Texas, so the comparison is far from perfect.
September 12th, 2005 at 10:57:29 am
One other point - there are more people than the refugees in the Astrodome who are going to leave Louisiana. Employers are going to be leaving New Orleans, and their employees will follow. Younger folks will think twice before settling in south Louisiana. Perhaps Louisiana will lose a congressional district in the next census?
September 12th, 2005 at 11:02:17 am
Mais oui, cher Alasdair, bien sËšr. C’etait “la Loi du Loy”. :) Alors, l’Èlection Napoleonique :) etait trÈs simple. Seulement Un Èlecteur. :) (le Sourire coupable :)
Heard ye o’ the tree o’ France,
I watna what’s the name o’t;
Around the tree the patriots dance,
Weel Europe kens the fame o’t.
It stands where ance the Bastile stood,
A prison built by kings, man,
When Superstition’s hellish brood
Kept France in leading-strings, man…
My blessings aye attend the chiel,
Wha pitied Gallia’s slaves, man,
And staw a branch, spite o’ the deil,
Frae yont tho western waves, man.
Fair Virtue watered it wi’ care,
And now she sees wi’ pride, man,
How weel it buds and blossoms there,
Its branches spreading wide, man…
~ yer Man :)
September 12th, 2005 at 12:57:04 pm
{Alasdair sweeps a courtly bow in Joe’s direction !}
Bravo !
(grin) He did have euphonious ways, did he not ?
(Oh - and “etait” shoulda been “Ètait” ! (grin))(I’m still impressed - I need to find a good ASCII table of accented characters … I know, I know, since I *am* one, myself !)
September 13th, 2005 at 12:01:41 pm
LOL! :)