So here’s the question you should be asking yourself, if you live in the Big Easy (or anywhere inside the “bowl”) and are hesitant to evacuate: If you knew there was a 10 percent chance terrorists were going to set off a nuclear bomb in your city on Monday, would you stick around, or would you evacuate? That’s essentially equivalent to what you’re dealing with here.
Actually, since it’s a Hurricane, it blows, Joe ! (grin)
Brendan - since I know and enjoy many forms of watersports, I would not necessarily evacuate for flood risk (unless we are talking flash flood/tsunami), whereas one nuclear weapon going off can ruin your entire day, to quote the aphorism …
In the former, as long as the waters rise comparatively slowly, with steady energy transfer, there’s a chance of saving people (who are less water-wise) and stuff … with the latter, the energy transfer is way sudden and there’s not much else to do if one cannot get far enough away than bend over and kiss one’s loved ones goodbye …
Basically, it’s all in the rate of energy transfer, as with many things in Life …
Livecommentblogging the Cantore Watch: at Top of the Hour the Weather Channel ran tape of Our Hero’s previous report from Biloxi (featuring Hizzoner Mayor Holloway :). I Infer that Yer Man, live, has hit the road to the west/northwest & bound for the Shores of Pontchartrain. (The current shoreline, that is.) / OTOH Jim may have just wanted some Indoor AC cooling time, he’s been bitching about the Sun on the Beach all day. :)
I would not necessarily evacuate for flood risk (unless we are talking flash flood/tsunami)
How about when we are talking the submersion of an entire city which will create a toxic stew of sewage, industrial chemicals, fire ants and dead bodies, 30 feet deep across an entire metropolitan area?
Watersports enthusiast or not, I don’t think it would be wise for anyone to be swimming around in Lake New Orleans if the worst happens.
Andrew - remember, dear heart, to the Pure, all things are Pure !
Lest anyone wonder that I seem so basÈ about the potential for disaster and disruption of human life on a very large scale, when one has been out in mid-Atlantic on a *large* passenger/cargo ship (couple of hundred feet length - reasonably big one), and has had the privilege of standing at bow or stern and looking *UP* at the crests of waves - as in BIG yet fortunately rolling not cresting - one realises the sheer energy involved - it is awe-inspiring for all that it’s basically safe …
In one of the posts, there is/was a link to a simulation of the water rise around a major Church, as I recall - and it showed that most of the church would remain above water level, for all that the lower part would most likely flood … in that situation, rather than evacuate and clog the roads, I’d more likely do what I could for my own family and property, and then head for such a ‘central’/local relatively high spot, and see what I could do to help, since I have potentially useful experience …
Yes, Alasdair, the stormy winds do Blow, indeed. :>
Again with the Videotape: “Biloxi Jim” Cantore, earlier interviewing Air Force Reserve Lieutenant Nicole Mitchell, a rather striking-looking :) Hurricane Hunter about to Fly to the Eye & back again. / Cantore stated he wants to trade places, himself to go Hunting & she to stay on the beach. / Fly you Fools, sez I. / I still claim Cantore is shifting Venues, but we’ll see.
An advantage of having many years under one’s belt is the perspective and faith that the Planet manages to renew Herself remarkably well … and I will still boil the water, thankyouverymuch anyway …
That toxic stew has a number of undesirable characteristics - but consider this … if most folk evacuate, who is left to help the weaker, the old, the semi-terminally stubborn who don’t know quite enough to find high points, lash together a raft, attach firmly in the lee of somethig substantial, etc ?
If most folk evacuate, where the $#@$#@ do they go ? They are still going to need water and food, shelter, etc …
There are no easy answers here, unfortunately - all we can do when these things happen is our best …
Apparently the Thing is still moving West, not having made its anticipated N/NW right turn yet. I don’t suppose there’s any nonVanishinglysmall possibility that it, like, just Won’t? Y’know, like, the Hurricane that Forgot to read The Book & so doesn’t Know what it’s supposed to Do? / No. I didn’t think so. :|
Well, the Bourbon Street Camera seems to be up and running … and shows people … and, if you so choose, it’ll let you have a close-to-live feed, it looks like … at least until the bandwidth is all used up … (grin) …
A storm surge of 25 to 30 feet IS a tsunami. Oh, it may not come in one big wave, but any water that is being driven by 100, 150, or 200 mph winds has exactly the same kind of force as a tsunami. As for N.O., the same analogy would hold, even if they don’t receive a coastal surge. Any wind driven water that comes over the levees will not seep, it is going to roar. And debris filled water acts just like a battering ram that will tear down most structures regardless of their height. As for sheltering in a church, from http://www.upress.state.ms.us/features/camille/interview.html
” Paul Williams, the caretaker at Trinity Episcopal, took 16 family members to the historic structure for safekeeping. Thirteen of his family, including children and grandchildren, died in the storm, their bodies washing into an adjacent cemetery to mingle with coffins regurgitating from newly dug graves.”
The water in a hurricane kills far more people than the wind. If you think there is the remotest possibility of getting your feet wet, you leave.
Lisa
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August 27th, 2005 at 2:57:04 pm
Well this situation certainly sucks. / Lord let the damn thing Shear & Veer. Pardon my language Lord. :|
August 27th, 2005 at 3:13:01 pm
Actually, since it’s a Hurricane, it blows, Joe ! (grin)
Brendan - since I know and enjoy many forms of watersports, I would not necessarily evacuate for flood risk (unless we are talking flash flood/tsunami), whereas one nuclear weapon going off can ruin your entire day, to quote the aphorism …
In the former, as long as the waters rise comparatively slowly, with steady energy transfer, there’s a chance of saving people (who are less water-wise) and stuff … with the latter, the energy transfer is way sudden and there’s not much else to do if one cannot get far enough away than bend over and kiss one’s loved ones goodbye …
Basically, it’s all in the rate of energy transfer, as with many things in Life …
August 27th, 2005 at 3:17:13 pm
Livecommentblogging the Cantore Watch: at Top of the Hour the Weather Channel ran tape of Our Hero’s previous report from Biloxi (featuring Hizzoner Mayor Holloway :). I Infer that Yer Man, live, has hit the road to the west/northwest & bound for the Shores of Pontchartrain. (The current shoreline, that is.) / OTOH Jim may have just wanted some Indoor AC cooling time, he’s been bitching about the Sun on the Beach all day. :)
August 27th, 2005 at 3:17:40 pm
since I know and enjoy many forms of watersports
Alasdair, that was far more information about your sex life than we ever needed to know.
August 27th, 2005 at 3:34:25 pm
I would not necessarily evacuate for flood risk (unless we are talking flash flood/tsunami)
How about when we are talking the submersion of an entire city which will create a toxic stew of sewage, industrial chemicals, fire ants and dead bodies, 30 feet deep across an entire metropolitan area?
Watersports enthusiast or not, I don’t think it would be wise for anyone to be swimming around in Lake New Orleans if the worst happens.
August 27th, 2005 at 3:39:39 pm
Andrew - remember, dear heart, to the Pure, all things are Pure !
Lest anyone wonder that I seem so basÈ about the potential for disaster and disruption of human life on a very large scale, when one has been out in mid-Atlantic on a *large* passenger/cargo ship (couple of hundred feet length - reasonably big one), and has had the privilege of standing at bow or stern and looking *UP* at the crests of waves - as in BIG yet fortunately rolling not cresting - one realises the sheer energy involved - it is awe-inspiring for all that it’s basically safe …
In one of the posts, there is/was a link to a simulation of the water rise around a major Church, as I recall - and it showed that most of the church would remain above water level, for all that the lower part would most likely flood … in that situation, rather than evacuate and clog the roads, I’d more likely do what I could for my own family and property, and then head for such a ‘central’/local relatively high spot, and see what I could do to help, since I have potentially useful experience …
August 27th, 2005 at 3:42:55 pm
Yes, Alasdair, the stormy winds do Blow, indeed. :>
Again with the Videotape: “Biloxi Jim” Cantore, earlier interviewing Air Force Reserve Lieutenant Nicole Mitchell, a rather striking-looking :) Hurricane Hunter about to Fly to the Eye & back again. / Cantore stated he wants to trade places, himself to go Hunting & she to stay on the beach. / Fly you Fools, sez I. / I still claim Cantore is shifting Venues, but we’ll see.
August 27th, 2005 at 3:59:03 pm
An advantage of having many years under one’s belt is the perspective and faith that the Planet manages to renew Herself remarkably well … and I will still boil the water, thankyouverymuch anyway …
That toxic stew has a number of undesirable characteristics - but consider this … if most folk evacuate, who is left to help the weaker, the old, the semi-terminally stubborn who don’t know quite enough to find high points, lash together a raft, attach firmly in the lee of somethig substantial, etc ?
If most folk evacuate, where the $#@$#@ do they go ? They are still going to need water and food, shelter, etc …
There are no easy answers here, unfortunately - all we can do when these things happen is our best …
August 27th, 2005 at 4:11:08 pm
(I’m bumping this post to the top of the homepage)
August 27th, 2005 at 4:35:44 pm
Apparently the Thing is still moving West, not having made its anticipated N/NW right turn yet. I don’t suppose there’s any nonVanishinglysmall possibility that it, like, just Won’t? Y’know, like, the Hurricane that Forgot to read The Book & so doesn’t Know what it’s supposed to Do? / No. I didn’t think so. :|
August 27th, 2005 at 5:00:57 pm
Well, the Bourbon Street Camera seems to be up and running … and shows people … and, if you so choose, it’ll let you have a close-to-live feed, it looks like … at least until the bandwidth is all used up … (grin) …
August 27th, 2005 at 7:08:55 pm
Jim Cantore, live & still in Biloxi, 5 minutes ago:
“…so, it looks like we got a major hurricane heading this way. I hope it weakens and I hope I’m wrong, but I got a bad feeling about this one.“
August 27th, 2005 at 7:18:45 pm
Alasdair,
A storm surge of 25 to 30 feet IS a tsunami. Oh, it may not come in one big wave, but any water that is being driven by 100, 150, or 200 mph winds has exactly the same kind of force as a tsunami. As for N.O., the same analogy would hold, even if they don’t receive a coastal surge. Any wind driven water that comes over the levees will not seep, it is going to roar. And debris filled water acts just like a battering ram that will tear down most structures regardless of their height. As for sheltering in a church, from http://www.upress.state.ms.us/features/camille/interview.html
” Paul Williams, the caretaker at Trinity Episcopal, took 16 family members to the historic structure for safekeeping. Thirteen of his family, including children and grandchildren, died in the storm, their bodies washing into an adjacent cemetery to mingle with coffins regurgitating from newly dug graves.”
The water in a hurricane kills far more people than the wind. If you think there is the remotest possibility of getting your feet wet, you leave.
Lisa