Hurricane Katrina has turned southwestward and sped up a bit, so she will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in just a few hours. (Radar loop here.) That’s good for south Florida, which will get less rain than expected, but bad for wherever this hurricane heads next. Katrina hasn’t weakened much at all during her brief sojourn over the Florida peninsula; even now, as the center nears the state’s west coast, she’s still at 75 mph. The NHC’s forecast that Katrina would only attain minimal Category 2 strength over the Gulf was based on the premise that she would weaken to 50 mph first. So her failure to significantly weaken is distinctly bad news, and should substantially change the intensity forecast. With steady intensification expected once the center re-emerges over water, I suspect Katrina will be at least Category 3 at second landfall.

UPDATE: Charles Fenwick at Eye of the Storm writes: “More than four hours over land and STILL a hurricane. Remarkable.” (Now it’s more than five hours.) But Fenwick offers a good explanation for why: “Katrina’s southerly course is taking her over the Everglades. The difference between the Everglades and open water is slight.”

Regarding the track, Steve Gregory says “there is is still way too much uncertainty with the exact timing of the turn northward, and the entire Gulf coast, from Louisiana eastward to Tampa could ultimately be at risk for the next and final, landfall of Katrina.” Dr. Jeff Masters says “an area from New Orleans to Cedar Key, Florida at risk. In the center of this risk area lies the U.S.’s very own hurricane magnet, the Pensacola region, where Ivan and Dennis struck.”

I can certainly understand Pensacolans being nervous. What makes me nervous is that Katrina’s southwestward turn and refusal to weaken makes a New Orleans doomsday scenario considerably more plausible than it seemed just a few hours ago. Still unlikely, but more likely than it was.

UPDATE, 12:17 AM: Katrina has finally weakened to a tropical storm as of midnight EST, approximately six hours after making landfall. But that won’t last long. She’s already got her “feet wet” over the Gulf, seven hours ahead of schedule.