Talk about rapid intensification:

…SHORTLY AFTER 1215 AM CDT… 0515Z… AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH… CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT APPROXIMATELY 1 AM CDT…0600Z.

Cripes. And she’s still got nearly an entire day of perfect conditions ahead.

(Hat tip: CFR.)

[UPDATE, 1:24 AM: The full advisory is out now. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center!!! (That’s up from 45 miles three hours ago.) And there are wind gusts to 170 mph, according to the marine advisory.]

[UPDATE, 2:56 AM: Weatherblogger Steve Gregory writes, “On the most recent SAT imagery, the eye appears to be nearly 50NM across! If the eye was to shrink down to 15NM, we would probably see a storm as strong as Camille.“]

35-foot wave heights over the Gulf, according to The Weather Channel.

My personal prediction: I think it will definitely get to Category 5 later today. Whether it makes landfall as a Cat. 5 will depend on eyewall replacement cycle timing. It will probably go through at least one more cycle before landfall, but will that cycle be just before landfall, or long enough before landfall that it has time to re-strenghten again after the cycle is over?

P.S. Katrina has just become a Category 4 hurricane, and on CNN they’re talking about Martha Stewart. CNN Headline News is showing a clip of P. Diddy. Fox News is on commercial. MSNBC has Stone Phillips babbling about some human-interest story. And we wonder why some people aren’t taking this storm seriously enough?