No Indonesian tsunami, but severe earthquake damage on Nias Island (off Sumatra), which has a population of 10,000. At least 50 dead, 100 injured and 300 homes destroyed, according to CNN. Alas, all of those numbers will undoubtedly climb.

CNN-TV just reported that a tidal gauge at the Cocos Islands, an Australian territory that is almost due south of the epicenter of today’s 8.2 earthquake, observed a “small tsunami.” That backs up previous speculation that the energy from this tsunami, unlike the last one, was focused primarily southward, which is very good news, since there isn’t much land to the south.

But now Reuters is reporting that “dozens” have died and houses have been destroyed on Mias (?) Island. Apparently that island is off the west coast of Sumatra… but that may be just earthquake damage, not tsunami damage.

UPDATE: Maybe they said Nias Island.

UPDATE 2: Confirmed; Nias Island was hit. But not by the tsunami, just by the effects of the earthquake. There have been “no reports of any tsunamis” on Nias.

In other news, the earthquake has been upgraded to an 8.7.

As for the Cocos Islands, apparently there isn’t much of a threat to life and property there, because there’s no continental shelf to funnel the tsunami wave into a massive wall of water.

As the wave continues to travel south, I wonder if Antarctica will get clobbered? Penguins and seals, washed out to sea! Oh, the humanity! :)

It’s been almost three hours since the earthquake. The fact that we haven’t yet heard about any tsunamis in Indonesia seems like good news to me. I know the lines of communication are slower there than here, but surely we would have heard something. And the official tsunami bulletin did say: “AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE DANGER HAS PASSED IF NO TSUNAMI WAVES ARE OBSERVED IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER WITHIN THREE HOURS OF THE EARTHQUAKE.”

If the tsunami energy really did propagate to the south, as some scientists are suggesting, I’m still wondering about northwestern Australia, which is south-southeast of the epicenter. Not sure if the waves would have reached there yet.

UPDATE: UPI reports:

The tsunamis that were feared resulting from the earthquake that struck the Indian Ocean basin Monday do not appear to have occurred.

But one of CNN’s anchors is saying that there “was one [a tsunami] that may have been spotted.” Not sure what that means.

UPDATE 2: CNN weather reporter Jacque Jeras says a tide gauge observed a “small tsunami” at the Cocos (?), from the Australian weather bureau, several hundred miles southwest of the epicenter.

Continued above.

GayPatriot has been silenced.

One blogger proposed to another on Saturday. She said yes. Awww.

BBC Breaking News Alert: “Geologists say a major earthquake has rocked the Indian Ocean off northern Sumatra, triggering a tsunami warning.”

UPDATE: Initial reports say it was an 8.2. That is a big one, though an order of magnitude weaker than the 9.3 quake that triggered the December tsunami. But depending on the exact undersea conditions, this could cause a tsunami. Pray that it doesn’t.

UPDATE 2: Watching CNN now. It’s after midnight in Indonesia. The quake may have been as big as 8.5. Conflicting early reports are common; the December quake was initially estimated in the 8 range as well. No word on any tsunami impact yet.

UPDATE 3: The earthquake occurred at 11:09 AM EST.

Here’s the tsunami bulletin:

THIS EARTHQUAKE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A WIDELY DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI IN THE OCEAN OR SEAS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE. …

THIS CENTER DOES NOT HAVE SEA LEVEL GAUGES OUTSIDE THE PACIFIC SO WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DETECT OR MEASURE A TSUNAMI IF ONE WAS GENERATED. AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE DANGER HAS PASSED IF NO TSUNAMI WAVES ARE OBSERVED IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER WITHIN THREE HOURS OF THE EARTHQUAKE.

CNN is reporting “widespread and absolute panic” among Banda Aceh residents, racing inland and to higher ground. But “no reports of damage or major casualties yet.”

UPDATE 4: An expert on CNN says we should presume that there was a tsunami, but because the rupture along the fault likely went south from the epicenter, the primary tsunami energy might be focused southward rather than westward.

There isn’t as much land to the south as there is to the west, but there are some islands down there. Also, I wonder if the northwestern coast of Australia could be impacted?

UPDATE 5: Here’s a map, and here’s another map, of the epicenter.

FINAL UPDATE: Welcome, InstaPundit readers!

I’m ending this post now; further updates will be in a new post above. Or just go to my homepage for the latest.

BONUS UPDATE: Here’s another new post, with the news that a “small tsunami” has been detected at the Cocos Islands, an Australian territory pretty much due south of the epicenter. Also, the earthquake itself has produced significant damage on Nias Island off the coast of Sumatra, but there have been no reports of tsunamis in or near Sumatra.

Listening to the country song “I Wanna Do It All” by Terri Clark yesterday, I got to thinking about how many of the things mentioned in the song I’ve already done in my life. Let’s see…

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Andrew Long v. Brian Kiolbasa

As noted earlier, the tenth annual Living Room Times men’s basketball pool has become an Irish-Trojan battle between USC alumnus Andrew Long (above left) and Notre Dame 1L Brian Kiolbasa (above right). Unless North Carolina wins the championship, Long, currently in first place, will be crowned pool champion — the first Trojan ever to win a Times pool. But if the Tar Heels win the national title, Kiolbasa, currently in second place, will move ahead of Long and win the pool.

Here are the “what-if scenarios” showing the final standings in each of the eight possible title-game results:
Illinois over North Carolina
North Carolina over Illinois
Illinois over Michigan State
Michigan State over Illinois
Louisville over North Carolina
North Carolina over Louisville
Louisville over Michigan State
Michigan State over Louisville

In addition to his success in the Times pool, Long is currently in third place in the Bloggers Bracket. He will win that contest — and its $50 first prize — if Illinois and North Carolina meet in the title game, regardless of who wins.

Meanwhile, over in the Irish Law Allstars pool, there are four contestants with a chance to win the $230 first prize, and eight others with a shot at second place ($100) or third place ($51). The group with a shot at third place includes Kiolbasa and… yours truly! I’m the money if Louisville beats North Carolina in the title game. (Full scenarios after the jump.)

Last but not least, in the BrendanLoy.com second-chance pool, it’s down to a Final Four: Notre Dame 1Ls Blake Hanson and Dmytro Aponte, Cam McLachlan of East Amherst, NY, and Larry Caplin of Union Lake, MI.

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Two members of the Newington High School Class of 1999, both former Living Room Times pool champions, are in first and second place in the eighth annual Times women’s pool heading into the Elite Eight.

Todd Stigliano, the 2001 women’s pool champion, has 303 out of a possible 352 points. Matt Thomsen, the 2000 men’s pool champion, is two back with 301 points.

Stigliano and Thomsen are also statistically the most likely to win the pool. Stigliano would win in 36 of the 128 remaining scenarios (28.1%). Thomsen would win in 23 scenarios (18.0%).

There are 18 others who would win in at least one scenario, so a total of 20 contestants are still alive to win the pool. That’s nearly three times as many as in the men’s pool at this point; just 7 contestants were still alive heading into the Elite Eight of that tournament. But the women’s tournament has been much more predictable than the men’s this year, with four #1 seeds, three #2 seeds and one #3 seed advancing to the Elite Eight; thus, many contestants’ predicted finalists and champions are still alive, which means that a great deal of movement on the leaderboard is still possible.

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There will be no four-peat for the UConn women. Stanford crushed the Huskies last night, 76-59, in the Sweet 16. It’s the first time since 1999, and only the second time since 1993, that UConn has failed to reach the Elite Eight. And as Jeff Jacobs points out, it’s the first time any of UConn’s current players — any of them, including the seniors — have ever lost an NCAA Tournament game.

Another late-game comeback… a buzzer shot bouncing around the rim with no time left on the clock… a five-minute replay conference to determine if the shot was a 2 or a 3… and now, another Elite Eight overtime game!

UPDATE: Double overtime!

UPDATE 2: Michigan State wins! So it’ll be North Carolina vs. Michigan State and Illinois vs. Louisville. Could it be an all-Big 10 championship game between the Spartans and the Illini?

Becky and I are back in South Bend, watching the Kentucky-Michigan State game.

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The tenth annual Living Room Times men’s basketball pool officially became a battle of Trojan vs. Domer when North Carolina defeated Wisconsin on Sunday, 88-82, leaving USC alumnus Andrew Long and Notre Dame law student Brian Kiolbasa as the only contestants with a chance to win the pool.

If North Carolina wins the national championship, Kiolbasa — a Notre Dame 1L and a graduate of Arizona State University — will finish first. If the Tar Heels lose in either the Final Four or the title game, Long — a 2002 USC grad who now works for Boeing in southern California — will become the first Trojan ever to win a Times pool.

Stay tuned; more details to come. (We’re still on the road at the moment; I’m posting via the slow cell phone connection.)

Complete standings here and after the jump.

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