…and it’s a dead heat.

P.S. If the “incumbent rule” is right, though, Bush is in trouble, in terms of the popular vote at least. He’s at 48% or below in all but two of the nine final national polls, and at 50% or higher in none.

As for the electoral vote, it’s all about turnout in the key states, but Kerry appears to have at least a halfway-decent shot in Florida, which is better than I expected a few days ago. Ohio is totally up in the air. I get the sense that Wisconsin and New Mexico are leaning Bush, while New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota are leaning Kerry, and Iowa is a total toss-up. I could be wrong, though.

Most likely tie-election scenario at the moment: Bush holds Florida, loses Ohio and New Hampshire, gains Wisconsin and New Mexico. Everything else stays the same as 2000. Electoral College deadlocks, 269-269.

Kerry Spot says the Republicans are rather upbeat.

It’s just too, too close to call.

P.P.S. In far more important news, the Mystery Pollster had a baby — on my birthday!!

P.P.P.S. The BrendanLoy.com community is currently predicting a 270-258 Bush win, with Wisconsin (10 EVs) tied.

Loyola Law School professor Rick Hasen, who wrote a great article for Slate two weeks ago about “five ways the election could end up in court, again,” writes on his blog that “it is tempting to overestimate the chances of post-election litigation [but] I will continue to stick by my prediction that there is still only a 10% chance that we see a delay in knowing the winner of the election.”

I think there is a somewhat greater than 10% chance that we will have a “probable winner” whose victory will have an asterisk for a while because of post-election litigation, but 10% sounds reasonable — maybe even a little high — for the literal “repeat of 2000″ scenario (no clue for days or weeks who won the election).

I may hold off on my long-planned “the focus on the process will destroy our democracy” post, because I don’t really have time to write it (damn you, Contracts!), and also, who knows, maybe it will turn out to be overly alarmist. The prudent course is probably to wait and see what happens on Tuesday (and Wednesday and Thursday) before getting on my soapbox.