Chris and I are heading over to the polling place now.

CNN’s Bill Schneider says Kerry voters’ most important issues are Economy/Jobs (32%), Iraq (23%) and Health Care (12%). Only 5% said terrorism. Bush voters: Moral values (35%), Terrorism (33%).

1 in 7 voters in CNN’s exit polls say they did not vote in 2000. So that provides some statistical evidence to back up the anecotal reports of huge, record turnout. (I am always skeptical of such reports, because it seems to me that we hear this every two years, and the reports are usually wrong.)

Drudge elaborates on his numbers: “Kerry in striking distance — with small 1% lead — in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE… [But early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida]…” And, as mentioned earlier, that early sample was apparently skewed female, which would favor Kerry. So basically, we know nothing, except perhaps that Bush isn’t running away with it. Beyond that, the election is waaaaaaay too close to call.

UPDATE: Wonkette says Kerry leads in the national popular vote, 50-49, according to a different exit-poll source. Also: FL 50-49 Kerry, OH 50-49 Kerry, Colorado 50-48 Bush, NM 50-48 Bush.

Drudge and NRO:

SD: Thune (R) +4
FL: Castor (D) +3
NC: Burr (R) +6
KY: Bunning (R) +6
OK: Coburn (R) +6
SC: Demint (R) +4
CO: Salazar (D) +4

If those numbers hold up, the Republicans would have at least a one-seat gain in the Senate — 52-46 with Alaska and Louisiana still to be decided.

Finding the silver lining… it seems like it’s a good sign for Democratic turnout in Florida that Castor is winning there while the Dems are generally losing in tossup Senate races elsewhere.

Drudge now reports: “early [exit-poll] sample was based on a 59-41 women to men ratio…”

What for, I wonder?

“BOTH CAMPS URGE CAUTION,” his headline now concludes.

Also, Wonkette’s numbers below are “absolutely, positively not exit poll numbers,” according to Jonah Goldberg. He thinks they might be early-voting polls. “That said, I’m told the exits don’t look great for Bush either,” he adds.

So that leaves us with NRO’s raw numbers: “bush down 4 in ohio, down 4 in fla, down 1 in NM, down 1 in mich, down 2 iowa.”

But then there’s this: “I’m told that pollsters close to the Bush campaign think that Bush is up in Florida and New Hampshire, down in Wisconsin, even in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and ‘doing well’ in Ohio. And they don’t think that the exit-poll numbers on NRO about Ohio add up.”

It’s the fog of polling. :)

Just to reiterate once again: “First wave of exit polls are not reliable–they are raw numbers, not balanced. They don’t include absentee and early votes.”

P.S. NRO says Thune is beating Daschle in South Dakota.

Wonkette has a bumper crop of leaked exit-poll numbers:

AZ 55-45 Bush
CO 51-48 Bush
LA 57-42 Bush
MI 51-48 or 51-47 Kerry
WI 52-48 or 52-43 Kerry
PA 60-40 Kerry
OH 52-48 Kerry
FL 51-48 Kerry
NM 50-48 Kerry
MN 58-40 Kerry
IA 49-49 tie
NH 57-41 Kerry

The Pennsylvania, Minnesota and New Hampshire margins are hard to believe. Still, the news certainly looks good. I’d rather be ahead in a bunch of probably inaccurate and possibly meaningless early exit-poll numbers, than behind in them. :)

In contrast to the depressing post below, Matt Drudge is now reporting:

KERRY CAMPAIGN FINDS COMFORT IN FIRST BATCH OF EXIT POLLS

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE…. National Election Pool — representing six major news organization — shows Kerry in striking distance — with small lead — in Florida and Ohio.. MORE…

Woohoo! Stay tuned.

UPDATE: NRO, four minutes ago: “bush down 4 in ohio, down 4 in fla, down 1 in NM, down 1 in mich, down 2 iowa.”

Caveat: “these early reports are unreliable, but these are numbers we just got from a major newsroom. Take with a grain of salt.”

Still, it sounds like they’re in quasi-panic mode over there:

Do not, again, do not take any exit poll resports too seriously. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE. Exit polls not always reliable, ESPECIALLY early ones. AND, this isn’t over until the polls close. So please get to work while there is still time.

DO NOT get depressed. DO NOT get mad. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE.

I contend this is the most important election of many of our lifetimes. I’m almost willing to make a deal and give the Dems 2008 if we can have this one.

Ohio: Bush 49-41. :(

UPDATE: NRO has now essentially retracted this report. See above.

I can’t find any early exit-poll numbers yet, but Mystery Pollster offers a good, detailed explanation of why we should take those numbers with a “giant grain of salt” when they do come out over the next few hours:

Those leaked exit polls really don’t tell us much more about the outcome of the race than the telephone polls we were obsessing over just a few hours ago. Even if we wanted to call a race on unweighted, unfinished, mid-day exit polls alone (something the networks will not do), we would need to see differences of 10-15 points separating the candidates to be 95% certain of a winner.

Read the whole thing.

That said, I’ll be eagerly on the lookout for those numbers. :) Sites to check: Drudge, TNR, Battlegrounders, Kerry Spot, The Corner, Wonkette, and the Command Post.

P.S. The Corner has some new polls — NOT exit polls, last-minute Zogby phone/online polls — showing that Pennsylvania’s tied, Bush is up in Florida, but — get this — Virginia is tied and Kerry’s up in Colorado! Now that would be something.

P.P.S. Iowa, too.

Here’s article about the TV networks’ plans to avoid a repeat of 2000, when they twice “called” and then retracted the state of Florida.

“The guiding principle of the projections is: Be accurate,” said Dan Merkle, ABC’s decision desk director. “If we’re not fully confident, we’ll wait for more data. If the race is too close, we won’t project. A new rule in place is that ABC News will not project a race if there’s less than percentage margin between the candidates.”

At ABC, a three-member oversight team signs off on all projections. At Fox News, a four-member team must agree before a result is announced. At NBC, a three-member team reaches accord, then an executive producer reviews the call. NBC will isolate its team from other networks’ calls to take out the competitive pressure.

CBS’ Mason will decide whether to air what her 12-person desk has determined. CBS will put reporter Mika Brzezinski at the decision desk to explain its workings. No reporter was stationed there four years ago.

“That’s our big mantra here: no secrets,” Mason said.

The networks will strive to be more precise with language. CBS will put the word “estimate” on graphics. The network will draw the distinction between “too close to call” and “not enough votes” in explaining results. At CNN, about 30 people are working on the projections.

The article also states that the networks “will wait until the scheduled closing of every poll before projecting a state’s outcome. That’s a reaction, in part, to the early call on Florida for Gore while some polls remained open.” If that’s accurate, it’s a big deal — fully 8 states (AK, FL, ID, IN, KY, MI, ND, TX) have straggler western counties with late-closing polls, and three more (KS, NC, NH) have isolated precincts that close an hour later than the majority of the state. (Map here.)

TNR’s Election Day blog proposes a thought experiment:

Imagine if Democrats sent letters to people living on military bases, and used the returned mail to challenge military voters [as Republicans are doing with registered voters in black neighborhoods]. Would Republicans applaud the effort to combat voter fraud, and tell military voters to stop being whiny and oversensitive?

What would election night be without a good drinking game? Now that I’ve gotten back from the long line at the polls it is time to start waiting for the results to come in go to work. So in the spirit of brendanloy.com drinking games past, lets get everyone smashed. The rules are very simple.

(more…)

Of all the “last minute” polls and predictions, I think that the Washington Post’s prediction is the best. Now, don’t get me wrong–they still have 6 states (FL, IA, OH, MN, NM, WI) as “too close to call”–but I think that this is what we will be looking at tomorrow morning.

In spite of earlier reporting by BrendanLoy.com, the Post seems to believe that Kerry will pull out a victory in New Hampshire–one of the key states that went to Bush in 2000 that pundits have looked to as “needing” to go to Kerry this year. Who cares that it’s only worth 4 electoral votes?

But if the Post’s prediction is correct, New Hampshire will be the biggest surprise to me. I don’t care that Clinton won it by less than 1% in 1992 or that Bush won it by less than 1% in 2000. New Hampshire has often prided itself as being the one conservative state in New England . . . That point in and of itself confuses me, but I seriously wonder about Kerry’s chances there.

I still have no clue as to how things turned out. I voted. Have you?

Drudge reports:

Before voting even began in Philadelphia — poll watchers found nearly 2000 votes already planted on machines scattered throughout the city… One incident occurred at the SALVATION ARMY, 2601 N. 11th St., Philadelphia, Pa: Ward 37, division 8… pollwatchers uncovered 4 machines with planted votes; one with over 200 and one with nearly 500… A second location, 1901 W. Girard Ave., Berean Institute, Philadelphia, Pa, had 300+ votes already on 2 machines at start of day…

Attention fellow FOG residents: Our polling place is the Little Flower Church Hall at 54191 Ironwood Road.

Here are some of the local races on the ballot.

UPDATE: Now I’m being told by the rector of FOG that we are supposed to vote at the Joyce Center. I’m very skeptical, considering my voter registration card stated that my polling place is the Little Flower Church. But I don’t know for certain.