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Rumors of impending chaos greatly exaggerated?
Posted by on Monday, November 1, 2004 at 12:54 am

Loyola Law School professor Rick Hasen, who wrote a great article for Slate two weeks ago about “five ways the election could end up in court, again,” writes on his blog that “it is tempting to overestimate the chances of post-election litigation [but] I will continue to stick by my prediction that there is still only a 10% chance that we see a delay in knowing the winner of the election.”

I think there is a somewhat greater than 10% chance that we will have a “probable winner” whose victory will have an asterisk for a while because of post-election litigation, but 10% sounds reasonable — maybe even a little high — for the literal “repeat of 2000″ scenario (no clue for days or weeks who won the election).

I may hold off on my long-planned “the focus on the process will destroy our democracy” post, because I don’t really have time to write it (damn you, Contracts!), and also, who knows, maybe it will turn out to be overly alarmist. The prudent course is probably to wait and see what happens on Tuesday (and Wednesday and Thursday) before getting on my soapbox.




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