Rasmussen Reports joins the chorus discussing the possibility, once dismissed on this blog, of an inverse inversion in the Electoral College — the opposite of 2000:

The data suggests a range of plausible outcomes are possible next Tuesday.

If Senator Kerry has a good final weekend and the Democratic ground game is very effective, the Senator could win a narrow victory (possibly even winning the Electoral College without winning the popular vote).

At the other extreme, if President Bush has a good final weekend and the GOP ground game is very effective, he could win a fairly comfortable victory (4-5 points in the popular vote, 330+ Electoral Votes).

The final possibility is that the numbers stay right where they are and the President is narrowly re-elected. In that case, all eyes will be on Ohio.

Mystery Pollster, as previously noted by my dad, thinks this is possible, too. Andrew Sullivan calls it the “dream scenario.” Part of me wants to agree with that, but no, I’ll stick with my previously stated hope that there is no popular-electoral inversion at all.

Given the choice between the repeat inversion and the inverse inversion, though, I would definitely prefer the latter. It would be really fun to watch how both sides react. :)

AP: Pentagon tries to account for explosives; MN TV tape shows US troops in Al-Qaqaa bunker, barrels with IAEA markings.

Excerpts:

An Army unit removed 250 tons of ammunition from the Al-Qaqaa weapons depot in April 2003 and later destroyed it, the company’s former commander said Friday. A Pentagon spokesman said some was of the same type as the missing explosives that have become a major issue in the presidential campaign.

But those 250 tons were not located under the seal of the International Atomic Energy Agency - as the missing high-grade explosives had been - and Pentagon spokesman Larry Di Rita could not definitely say whether they were part of the missing 377 tons.

Maj. Austin Pearson, speaking at a press conference at the Pentagon, said his team removed 250 tons of TNT, plastic explosives, detonation cords, and white phosporous rounds on April 13, 2003 - 10 days after U.S. forces first reached the Al Qaqaa site.

“I did not see any IAEA seals at any of the locations we went into. I was not looking for that,” Pearson said.

(more…)

Notre Dame’s Scholastic magazine today released the results of a Mock Election conducted among 570 Notre Dame students last Tuesday. The results:

Bush 47.5%
Kerry 46.8%
Badnarik 2.0%
Nader 1.2%
Other 0.5%

Two percent said they would abstain from voting, which raises the question of why they bothered to participate in the Mock Election, but whatever.

Bush’s support was strongest among younger students. Freshmen broke roughly 60%-37% for Bush, while sophomores favored him by approximately 53%-41%; Kerry won by something like 50%-48% among juniors, 54%-37% among seniors and 59%-32% among graduate students. Older and wiser… :)

Women favored Kerry, 56.6% to 40.0%. Men favored Bush, 54.2% to 37.9%.

E.J. Dionne Jr., Washington Post, Oct. 26.

My sentiments exactly:

The Bush camp followers…tried to dismiss the strong feelings against Bush as irrational. The phrase “Bush hatred” is invoked to imply a legion of citizens gone mad.

It’s an odd argument when it comes from right-wing talk radio and cable television ranters who insisted in the 1990s that hatred of Bill Clinton was the highest form of patriotism. But their reaction is at least predictable. Anyone else who buys into the notion that the passions Bush has unleashed are primarily the product of unreasoning prejudices misses the central dynamic of this year’s election.

The fervent opposition to President Bush is rational, and its intensity is a direct response to Bush’s own efforts to discredit all opposition to his policies. Criticism of Bush comes not simply from the far left or from fans of Michael Moore movies, but also from political moderates, including Republicans, who see Bush’s fiscal, social and foreign policies as decidedly immoderate. The passion comes from a conviction that the president would prefer to use the fear of terrorism and cast his opponent as a dangerous appeaser rather than risk the loss of power…

…this administration is desperately trying to have this campaign be about anything but the central purpose of democratic elections: to hold those in power accountable for what they have done. Bush does not want the election to be about his miscalculations in Iraq, his misleading statements before the war, his false predictions about the fiscal effect of his tax cuts. He wants to scare the country about terrorism and John Kerry. It is not an honorable approach to reelection. That is why moderate and independent voters are finding it so hard to support the president and why so many of Kerry sympathizers are so fervent in their commitment.

Read the whole thing.

Today’s “animal saves human’s life by calling 911″ story is brought to you by Faith the Rottweiler of Richland, WA.

Incidentally, the reason for today’s blog-silence is that I’ve been having issues with my computer.

Yet again I’ve come across a superb analysis of why Bush should win, this time by a self-described libertarian from New York (read that last part as my preemptive self-defense statement bracing for the inevitable disagreements from Sean that a real libertarian could actually support Bush).

Note: I’m only excerpting the pro-Bush subjects Megan McArdle/Jane Galt addresses, partly to piss off David, and partly to drive you to follow the link and read the whole thing if you want to read her pro-Kerry sentiments.

Extended excerpts follow:

(more…)

John Kerry has reportedly asked Joe Biden to be his Secretary of State, and Biden is expected to accept.

Recall what I wrote two and a half weeks ago:

I’m heartened by the mention of the hawkish yet sensible Joe Biden for Secretary of State. I wish Kerry would pre-emptively appoint him to a Shadow Cabinet; I’d feel much better voting for him if he did. (This despite my anger at Biden over the RAVE Act, which sucks, but doesn’t really affect the Department of State.)

More importantly, recall Biden’s almost Tony Blair-esque speech (I said almost) at the Democratic National Convention in July:

(more…)

Bill Buckner doesn’t want to be forgiven.

THREE STATES TO PICK THE PRESIDENT, SAY EXPERTS

Napoleon Piggywig and President Bun meet in the fourth and final debate Thursday in the key battleground state of Kitchen.

Barring any significant upsets, the 2004 Adollyan presidential election has come down, most analysts and campaign consultants believe, to just three battleground states: Dining Room, Kitchen and My Bed.

For Napoleon Piggywig, candidate of the Unity Party and the Dollycrats, winning Dining Room alone would clinch the nomination, assuming all non-”tossup” states vote as expected. Winning both Kitchen and My Bed would also do the trick.

For President Bun, the Republidolly nominee, the math is a bit trickier. Again assuming no upsets, Mr. Bun must win Dining Room and either My Bed or Kitchen.

(more…)

George W. Bush: “A political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as your commander in chief when it comes to your security.”

*cough* *cough* IRAQ *cough* *cough*

The FBI is looking into allegations by a member of the Army Corps of Engineers who is involved in military contracts stating that Halliburton was unfairly awarded their no-bid contract in Iraq.

It might be too late to be any kind of October surprise, but it will be interesting to see how this all turns out.

The College Republican National Committee has raised $6.3 million this year using deceptive tactics and targeting the elderly. Then again, with the example being set by the current adminstration, are we really all that surprised?

Five days away from Election Day — and two days away from my birthday — a few earnest birthday wishes for the 2004 presidential race.

I hope Kerry wins.

But if Bush wins, I hope he gets a majority (or at the very least, a solid plurality) of the popular vote.

I hope the popular-vote winner wins the electoral vote. Especially if the electoral-vote winner is Bush.

I hope the election isn’t effectively decided by the Supreme Court again.

I hope liberals don’t come away, again, with the sense that They Wuz Robbed. I can scarcely imagine the horror of four more years listening to Michael Moore & co. whine about Bush “stealing” the election. On the other hand, although I don’t like Bush, I would actually take a certain degree of satisfaction in seeing the Loony Left shocked & chagrined at Bush actually winning a solid victory. Their whole belief system would crumble before our very eyes! It’d be great! :)

If Kerry wins, I hope his presidency is not as bad as Andrew fears it will be.

If Bush wins, I hope his second term is not as bad as I fear it will be.

I hope “this year’s Florida” isn’t Florida. Those poor election officials deserve a break.

I hope the outcome of the election is known within 48 hours of the polls closing. Nevermind the good of the country; my study schedule can’t handle a protracted recount/contest period like in 2000.

I hope the Democrats, somehow, retake the Senate. Especially if Bush wins.

I hope Ralph Nader gets less than one percent of the vote.

I hope Michael Badnarik gets more than one percent of the vote.

I hope America is stronger, rather than weaker, when all is said and done.

I have spoken.

Go Sox! Go Kerry!

Pay no attention to the ace behind the curtain. :)