Archive for October, 2004

The libertarian argument for Kerry

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

Part the First and Part the Second. Yes, it’s a “lesser of two evils” argument. Again, have lots of time to read before you click.

Packers carry Kerry the day!

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

Green Bay wins, 28-14, thanks to a controversial Supreme Court decision illegal-procedure call. It’s all over! John Kerry is assured of victory! :)

P.S. Possible GOP spin on the Redskins’ loss: “Damn those liberal activist referees!”

UPDATE: Kerry: “I couldn’t be more thrilled with the Packers win today. … The Packers have done their part, this Tuesday I’ll do mine.”

This, however, may not be the best attitude, especially for a Wisconsin voter:

“Oh, yeah, he’s going to win. It’s guaranteed,” said Packers safety Darren Sharper, a Kerry supporter. “I don’t have to vote now. Don’t even have to go to the polls. Saved me a trip on Tuesday.”

Why don’t you make that trip to the polls on Tuesday anyway, just in case, okay Darren? :)

Trouble for Kerry: Redskins surging

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

The Redskins are mounting a dramatic comeback after being thoroughly outplayed by the Packers throughout the game. They still trail, 20-14, but they have the ball in Green Bay territory with 2:49 to go. Uh-oh.

DAMMIT: Touchdown Redskins! But wait… there’s a flag! The touchdown is being called back! YESS!!! It’s like the Supreme Court handing Kerry the election! :)

INTERCEPTED! INTERCEPTED! The Packers have it back with 2:25 to go!!! The illegal-procedure penalty saves Green Bay and Kerry! (“FRAUD!”)

A Picture Share!

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

@messaging.sprintpcs.com’Have you seen Baggins?’ Happy Halloween! :)

Another election scandal: CNN exposes Brendan Loy, reveals students can choose which state to vote in!

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

I cannot for the life of me find, in the NYT or anywhere else, the supposedly written piece of Investigative Reporting apparently referenced in this CNN transcript — scroll way down to locate the interview headlined, at top, “Young Voters Live, Vote In Separate States”. Perhaps it hasn’t been published yet. More probably it’s been Suppressed as just too horrifying; after all, how much more Fraud can we be expected to take?

Accordingly I herewith excerpt the pertinent transcript segment from CNN Live Saturday, Aired October 30, 2004 – 16:00 ET. Emphases added as usual. Note the closely-reasoned analysis throughout.

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Cheeseheads rock!

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

They’re underway at FedEx Field, where the outcome of the Packers-Redskins game will decide the next President of the United States. The final Washington Redskins home game before a presidential election has never been wrong — never! — in predicting whether the incumbent party will stay in power. If the Redskins win, the incumbents win; if the Redskins lose, we kick the bums out. So, all I can say is… GO PACK!!!

UPDATE: “What is a Republican Packers fan to do?” asks the Green Bay Press Gazette. Or a Democratic Redskins fan, for the matter.

It’s 10-0 Packers at the moment. Woohoo! Click here for updates.

Wonkette Alert!

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

Free Live Chat! Coming soon!

(No no no, ya Pervs, it’s Political. All about The General Election. You Kids Are Disgusting. Ahem. :)

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Indiana election

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

For those of you fellow Domers who are registered to vote here in Indiana, but aren’t sure how you’re going to vote on the various local races, here’s a starting point for trying to decide.

Happy Halloween!

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

Hee hee:

BLECC update

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

My roommate Chris just entered the BrendanLoy.com Electoral College Contest (BLECC:) with a map that shows Bush losing Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida — and still winning the election, 270-268. And it’s plausible!

Despite picking Bush, Chris has tipped the scale in the BLECC aggregate prediction map to Kerry, because by giving the senator New Hampshire, he has moved the Granite State into the “barely blue” column. So now it’s Kerry 272, Bush 266, according to the BrendanLoy.com community at large.

Chris also made an interesting suggestion for a prize for the winner: “an all expense-paid trip to anywhere in the continental U.S. (excluding those states where the winner wrongfully predicted the outcome).” Heh. I’m afraid that’s a bit beyond my budget… I was thinking more along the lines of a custom t-shirt or mug or mousepad, courtesy of Cafe Press, showing the winner’s map and the title “BrendanLoy.com Electoral College Champion” or something like that.

Of course, as Chris points out, all this prognosticating is quite silly when the outcome of the election will be decided by the Packers-Redskins game that kicks off in less than 12 hours. GO PACK!!!

Fleeting temporal sanity

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

Here in South Bend, in the Eastern Standard Time zone, it’s 1:11 AM right now.

It’s also 1:11 AM in New York, where they just set their clocks back from Eastern Daylight Time to Eastern Standard Time.

And in Chicago, where they won’t set their clocks back and switch from Central Daylight Time to Central Standard Time for another 49 minutes, it’s also 1:11 AM.

So basically, from now until 2:00 AM EST, it’s the same time all the way from the East Coast to the Great Plains.

This hour, between 1:00 and 2:00 AM EST on the last Sunday in October, is also the only time all year when the entire state of Indiana has the same time. :)

Everybody loves a parade

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

An estimated 3.2 million people — approximately the population of the entire state of Connecticut — lined the streets and waterways of Boston yesterday, despite the rain, to greet the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. Appropriately enough, the “Hallelujah Chorus” was played. :)

The Boston Globe website has complete coverage, of course.

GO SOX!

The Bin Laden Bounce?

Sunday, October 31st, 2004

My dad is worried that Osama bin Laden’s new videotape will win the election for Bush. I think that was probably precisely Osama’s goal. (Whether you agree or disagree with him, you can’t deny that Bush is a great Al Qaeda recruiting tool. In that sense, keeping him in office is clearly in bin Laden’s best interests.) But the earliest available empirical evidence suggests that so far, there has been no Bin Laden Bounce for the president:

Democracy Corps had a survey that started calling on Friday night, called until Saturday noontime, it was a half sample that will be completed on Sunday. We don’t normally release these polls as partial samples, but given the intense interest in what’s happening in this race and possible impact of the events on Friday around the Bin Laden tape, we thought it appropriate to release this half sample.

The half sample is a very stable sample, which has Kerry at 48 percent and Bush at 47 percent, that’s almost identical [to our Wednesday-Friday survey]. Like that survey, this survey is evenly divided on party identification, it’s not biased toward either party or candidate and looks like a quite stable and incredible read on where the race is. All this polling was done following the news on Bin Laden.

On the other hand, National Review‘s Kerry Spot says Kerry always does well in Friday-night polls, perhaps because “GOP voters [are] not answering phones because they’re out at high school football games.”

Even if there is a small Bin Laden Bounce that the Democracy Corps survey isn’t picking up (perhaps especially in places like, say, New Jersey), Mickey Kaus suggests it won’t matter in the end:

It will all blow over by Sunday evening! Bin Laden made his move too soon. (Similarly, the NYT moved too soon on Al Qaqaa if it really wanted to affect the election.) … I mean, do you remember Teresa’s “real job” gaffe? Wasn’t that in the 2000 campaign? … P.S.: Plus, if bin Laden really wanted to help Bush, do you think he’d threaten mass murder and destruction on a Friday? That’s what you do when you want to bury a story! Everybody knows that!

Heh.

Myself, I agree whole-heartedly with Ann Althouse‘s “advice to Americans: Vote for whoever you would have voted for anyway!

But seriously…

Saturday, October 30th, 2004

With #3 Miami and #5 Florida State both being stunned today, and once-mighty Florida also losing, it was a very bad day for football fans in the Sunshine State. It’s the first time the Hurricanes, Seminoles and Gators have all lost on the same day since October 14, 1978!

Will the losses make Florida voters unexpectedly cranky on Tuesday, causing them to vote down the incumbent in a generalized rage against the status quo? Or will Miami fans vote against former Clemson football walk-on and North Carolina Law School grad John Edwards out of spite over the Tar Heels’ win? :)

The new Florida: New Hampshire?

Saturday, October 30th, 2004

The BrendanLoy.com community continues to predict an extremely close race on Tuesday. The latest aggregate prediction is Kerry 268, Bush 266, with one, election-deciding state in the “tossup” column: New Hampshire.

The deadline to submit your picks is noon on Monday. Enter now!

Aggregate-predictions map below:

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