Hurricane Warnings are now up for portions of the Florida and Georgia east coasts as Hurricane Jeanne, which has already killed 1,100 people in Haiti, approaches. Maximum wind speed is 100 mph and expected to increase. The projected landfall site is very near where Frances hit less than three weeks ago. 350,000 Floridians have been asked to evacuate. Again.

This is insane.

The 5:00 PM NHC advisory points out a unique problem caused by the timing of this particular storm:

We are reminded that from Sundown tonight until Sundown Saturday is Yom Kippur…a solemn Jewish Holiday. Some of your Jewish neighbors in the watch and warning areas observing Yom Kippur will not be listening to radios or watching TV…and may not be aware of the hurricane situation.

One hopes that the rabbis will make whatever special dispensations are necessary to allow Jewish residents along the coast to prepare for the storm. Landfall is expected to occur in the wee hours of Sunday morning, just hours after the Sabbath ends, so there will not be enough time to board up windows and such, let alone evacuate, after the sun sets tomorrow evening.

The forecast has Jeanne making landfalll as a minimal Category 3 with 115 mph winds — making it a major hurricane, the fourth to impact Florida in less than two months.

UPDATE: The AP has more on the Yom Kippur issue:

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I have long been skeptical of the conventional wisdom that the 2004 presidential election is likely, as so many pundits blithely suggest, to be a “replay” of 2000. Yes, we live in a “50/50 nation” and “polls show another close contest” and so forth. But even if we assume that the national popular vote will indeed be as close as 2000 (which I doubt), I believe it is very, very unlikely that the circumstances of four years ago will be repeated anytime soon. People generally fail to grasp how truly extraordinary the totality of the circumstances of that election were, namely:

1) The winning candidate’s electoral-vote margin was less than the number of EVs in a single state that he won (such a close EV split rarely happens, even in very close elections; see 1960);

and:

2) The winning candidate’s margin of popular-vote victory in the decisive state was infinitesimally small — less than one one-hundredth of one percent! — thus effectively rendering that state a statistical tie, well within the margin of error of any reasonable vote-counting system.

[Not to mention 3) the electoral vote and popular vote were inverted, 4) the national media screwed up the decisive state’s result on election night not once but twice, and 5) the governor of the decisive state was the brother of one of the presidential candidates — all separate issues, but issues that made 2000 even more extraordinary. But I digress. -ed.]

The confluence of 2000’s hairbreadth national electoral-vote closeness and decisive Florida’s far-less-than-a-hairbreadth (moleculebreadth?) statewide popular-vote closeness was, in my opinion, a freak statistical anomaly. I have often said it was a “once in 500 years event.” I seriously doubt anything like it will happen again in our lifetimes, or our children’s or grandchildren’s lifetimes — let alone this year.

But The New Republic (subscription required, so I’ll excerpt extensively) does a good job explaining why, in spite of all that, a repeat of what was arguably 2000’s most significant attribute — namely, having the election come down to a series of legal battles after the fact — is quite likely, not because the election will be as close as 2000, but because even a significantly watered-down version of 2000’s closeness (say, the election comes down to three states, all of which are within half of a percent) would likely produce a flurry of result-delaying and potentially election-deciding lawsuits, in large part because of the precedent set by Bush v. Gore:

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“They got a statue of Rudy somewhere around here?” –a purple-clad adult, presumably a Washington alum, walking across the quad.

So begins another football weekend at Notre Dame. :)

Cool:

Astronomers have found what they are calling the perfect cosmic storm, a galaxy cluster pile-up so powerful its energy output is second only to the Big Bang.

The cluster collision is the most powerful ever recorded and a fresh glimpse of the cluster merging process, where great swarms of galaxies smash into one another to form a single galactic structure.

(Hat tip: my aunt Patty.)

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida East Coast as Jeanne approaches:

Another weekend, another hurricane threatening Florida…

I can’t sleep (I’ll take another crack at it in a few minutes, having just finished a bowl of Cheerios at 4:25 in the morning), so I might as well blog. The topic du jour: John Kerry, actually on message:

As for Mr. Bush’s suggestion that as president Mr. Kerry would “wilt or waver” in the war against terror, the senator replied: “George Bush has failed to be forthcoming with the American people about what is happening in Iraq and has failed to provide the leadership we need. I will do a better job of dealing with Iraq and winning the war and fighting the war on terror, period.”

Hell yeah! That’s how you play offense, as TNR says.

Maybe they weren’t kidding about Kerry being a “good closer.” I’m feeling slightly less hopeless this week than last. But let’s see how the debates go.

P.S. Fark, linking to a CNN article: “Bush Administration: ‘We are not, I repeat, NOT dipping into the oil reserves for political gain.’” Heh.

P.P.S. From The Onion’s 2004 Election Guide:

Heh.

The great thing about the blogosphere is how everyone is so calm, understated and rational. For example: “My problem with John Kerry, apart from his being a communist, is that he’s a traitor.” Heh.

The Red Sox lost today after two consecutive wins on walk-off homers, and the Yankees won, clinching a playoff spot (e.g., worst-case scenario for them is the wild card) and increasing their lead over Boston in the AL East to 4.5 games. New York’s magic number to win the division is six heading into this weekend’s head-to-head series at Fenway Park, meaning a Yankees sweep would clinch the title (a Red Sox sweep would keep the magic number at six and bring the Sox within 1 1/2 games).

But nevermind about that. All Boston really needs to do is make the playoffs, and then they can dispense with the Yankees in the ALCS. And the Sox’s magic number to do that — to clinch the wild card — is down to four each against Anaheim and Texas. That means (if I’ve got this right) that any combination of Boston wins and Anaheim losses totalling four will eliminate the Angels, and any combination of Boston wins and Texas losses totalling four will eliminate the Rangers. If both of those things happen, the Red Sox are in. (Monkey wrench: If Anaheim or Texas overtakes Oakland in the AL West, it could be the A’s that the Sox would be competing against for the wild card… but in any event, their magic number is no more than four.)

Each team has ten games left, so basically the Angels and Rangers each need 17 of those 20 total games to go their way in order to pass the Red Sox for the wild card.

CORRECTION: MLB.com says the Sox’ magic number is five, not four. I always get confused about magic numbers, so I’ll trust that their math is better than mine in this case. :) So, substitute “five” for all the references to the number four above, and change “17 of those 20″ to “16 of those 20.” Still, it looks pretty good for the Sox.

Arash has a new column out. Best lines:

WEDNESDAY — The FCC fines CBS a record $550,000 for Janet Jackson’s “wardrobe malfunction” at the Super Bowl halftime show in February. It’s good to see the FCC put an end to that story as quickly as possible before it got out of control.

And:

This week’s encounter between athlete and celebrity gives us an epic battle for endurance as we pit the Detroit Lions’ undefeated record against Britney Spears’ marriage. Which one will last longer?

Heh.

In keeping with his previous comment, here’s a new Hurricane Jeanne forecast track to make my dad sweat:

Meanwhile, reborn Ivan is making landfall… again.

This time, it’s only a tropical depression, though. Sort of going out with a whimper.

P.S. Here are some excellent photos from Ivan’s first landfall.

CNN’s latest Electoral College projection shows Bush winning, 301-237. Sound familiar? Well, the totals are strikingly similar to my 302-236 prediction! :)

At first, I assumed that the difference was simply that CNN wasn’t splitting Maine’s congressional districts like I am, giving 1 EV to Bush. But no! CNN is actually predicting that too!!

The difference is, CNN gives New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4) to Bush but Minnesota (10) to Kerry, while I do the opposite. Compare and contrast:

BrendanLoy.com:

CNN:

On the other hand, American Research Group just finished polling all 50 states, and they call the race a virtual tie — and, when you ignore the margin of error, give Kerry a bare majority:

Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.

Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.

Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.

Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.

Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.

Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

They have also Kerry within 6 in Arizona and within 5 in North Carolina… but Bush within 6 in Illinois and within 8 in New York!

(UPDATE: Courtesy of Andrew, here is some evidence that Bush is actually up, perhaps by a substantial margin, in Florida. Call it the Ivan Effect. “The same poll also had Governor Jeb Bush’s approval rating for the hurricanes at 84%.”)

Electoral-vote.com, for its part, is officially projecting 273-255 Bush… but if you give Kerry Maryland (which is implausibly tied in the most recent, apparently anomalous, poll), and you assume the Colorado referendum passes (which appears likely; see below), it becomes 269-269.

(Oh, BTW, hat tip to my dad on the CNN article.)

P.S. Let’s assume my prediction and CNN’s predictions are wrong, and the Electoral Vote really is close. Let’s also assume Kerry holds onto the Upper Midwest states (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa), as well as Oregon and New Mexico. Finally, let’s assume that Bush holds onto the non-New Mexico Southwest (Arizona, Colorado, Nevada) and the South (excluding Florida), as well as West Virginia, Ohio and Missouri.

That leaves us with four “true” battleground states: the 2000 trifecta of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, plus New Hampshire.

If that’s the case, Kerry must win Florida, plus two out of three in MI, PA and NH.

See for yourself. :)

CORRECTION: Er, wait. Winning Florida and Pennsylvania is enough. He could lose New Hampshire and Michigan and still win, 270-268. So, er, uh… Kerry must win Florida, and either Pennsylvnia or Michigan AND New Hampshire. There we go. :)

P.P.S. Just got this “new Florida voting machine” via e-mail from my mom:

Heh.

P.P.P.S. What is that sheep doing to Elmo?!?

The Rocky Mountain News reports:

A proposal to change how Colorado allocates its presidential electoral votes is winning by double digits, according to a Rocky Mountain News/News4 poll - but a majority of voters don’t feel strongly either way.

Amendment 36 would scrap the traditional “winner take all” system and award Colorado’s electoral votes proportionally, based on popular vote. It would be the first such system in the nation, and it would apply immediately to the November presidential vote.

Fie.

Remember, the amendment is highly questionable constitutionally, and would certainly be challenged in the courts if it passes. Such a court challenge could end up deciding the election, if the current electoral-vote.com scorecard is right.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that the state’s DWI law does not apply to drunks on horseback, because horses do not fit under the definition of “vehicles.” The dissenting judge, having way too much fun, explained his disagreement lyrically:

A horse is a horse, of course, of course,
but the Vehicle Code does not divorce
its application from, perforce,
a steed as my colleagues said.
“It’s not vague,” I’ll say until I’m hoarse,
and whether a car, a truck or horse
this law applies with equal force,
and I’d reverse instead.

Heh.

Check out the latest long-term track for Hurricane Jeanne, which is Category 2, forecasted to strengthen to Category 3 and head toward — you guessed it — Florida:

Talk about raking the coast!

Fresh Bilge has interesting commentary.

Meanwhile, Ivan the Second has strengthened to 60 mph and is nearing the Texas coast.

Election season brings out the best in partisan paraphenalia.