Frances evacuation update: 1.2 million. That’s roughly 7.5% of the population of the state of Florida.

Imagine if Saturday (the expected landfall date) were election day. It makes all that talk about election disaster contingency planning seem less like a vast right-wing conspiracy, and more like a real and very serious potential problem, doesn’t it?

UPDATE: The 5:00 PM advisory is out. Frances is down to 140 mph from 145 mph, apparently because it’s in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle. According to the discussion:

Although Frances continues to have a good satellite representation, data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the minimum pressure has risen to 948 mb [from 939 mb] and the eyewall is currently disrupted. … This is probably a minor fluctuation associated with inner core processes and Frances could easily re-intensify.

Regardless, it is expected to hit Florida as a Category Four. The computer models have now converged on a landfall somewhere in south-central Florida. The official forecast track puts it near Fort Pierce at around 2:00 PM EDT Saturday.

In other news, T.D. Nine has formed way out in the tropical Atlantic.

P.S. Mickey Mouse, beware: Orlando may be hit hard by Frances.

InstaPundit has a lengthy post today about the controversy surrounding Notre Dame professor Tariq Ramadan.

Notre Dame’s student paper, The Observer (which thus far strikes me as substantially higher quality in the Daily Trojan, but the jury is still out), has had three news articles about this story so far: 8/25, 8/27, 8/31.

There were a lot of funny moments in CrimLaw today, but one of the best — and the only one I transcribed — was this conversation between “Tex” (that’s the professor’s nickname) and one of my classmates:

Student, describing the facts of a case: “…he’s pissed off.”
Prof. Dutile: “Let’s not use the legal jargon. Let’s just say he’s ‘angry.’”

Also today, we started talking about the Model Penal Code. Thus far, there has been no perceptible giggling. Perhaps we Domers are more sophisticated than those Bears… or perhaps we just need more time. :)

As David noted below, scientists may — just may — have picked up a signal indicating intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. Here is more detail on that story:

(more…)

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, FL as Frances approaches.

The discussion reveals:

The most interesting aspect this morning is that the National Weather Service global forecast system…GFS…and GFDL models have shifted their tracks a little to the west and are now in better agreement with the other dynamical models. Now that the reliable GFS and GFDL are in agreement with the other models…the confidence in the official forecast is higher.

So it looks like it will be Florida, not Georgia or the Carolinas, that bears the brunt of Frances. Which part of Florida remains to be seen, though south-central Florida is currently under the gun.

Is this finally proof that we are no longer alone?

For your viewing pleasure someone has posted a clip of Senator Zell’s appearance on Hardball with Chris Mathews.

A clerk at a Pennsylvania store accepted a $200 bill which had a photo of a young Dubya, was signed by Ronald Regan, and included the serial number DUBYA4U2001.

I don’t know whats scarier, the idea of Shrub on a bill or a person who accepts it…

This is different…

Will Frances be upgraded to a Category 5 Hurricane when the 5:00 AM EDT advisory comes out in less than two hours? I’m no meteorologist, but it certainly looks like it’s rapidly intensifying.

Hurricane Frances, 11:45 PM

Hurricane Frances, 2:45 AM

The 2:00 AM advisory already increased Frances’s wind speed from 140 to 145 mph, but it looks like Frances has strengthened significantly since then. (UPDATE: It looks even stronger in the 3:15 AM satellite image.)

I bet Frances will have at least 155 mph sustained winds in the next advisory. Up that by one mile-per-hour, and we’ve got ourselves a Cat. 5.

UPDATE: Nope. Still 145 mph, still Category 4. The discussion does say, “Satellite imagery indicates cooling of the cloud tops since [2am],” but data from the hurricane hunter reconnaisance planes indicates no substantial strengthening. However:

The intensity of Frances continues to be controlled by concentric eyewall cycles. Since these are difficult to forecast…the intensity forecast will call for [145 mph] intensity until landfall. Given the current cloud top cooling…Frances could reach [150-155 mph] intensity on the up side of the current cycle.

The forecast track has been shifted slightly southward.

Hurricane Warnings will be issued at 11:00 AM.

As of 2:00 AM, Frances is now as strong as Charley was when it made landfall. Sustained winds: 145 miles per hour.

I wonder: is this the start of a strengthening trend? Frances is now just 11 mph away from attaining Category Five status.

Check out blogger Michael Totten’s awesome cross-country road-trip photos.

Brendan by email invited the Guestbloggers:

If anybody is watching Cheney’s speech, I encourage you to guest-blog your thoughts, reactions, memorable quotes, etc. I’m at the library reading Torts, and will not be watching dear old Dick.

Ask, and ye shall receive More than ye asked:

1) Predictably, in his modulated low-key style, complete with his everpresent crooked little Halliburton smile :), the Comeback Dick was really quite good. He is a worthy Neocon Icon; and it is probably true, as his principal has so snappily said, that “Dick Cheney can be President.” (It is probably also true that he already is President, de facto; but never mind about that now. :)

BUT — as the Geico commercials say — there’s some Good News.

2) Thank God, thank all the Saints, for the Republicans’ official Convention Keynote Speaker, Senator Zell Miller, “D” - GA — and a real Peach if ever there was one. :) There is no joy in Crawford but they are dancing in the little island lanes of Nantucket tonight: for mighty Karl Rove has, at last, screwed up. / “Zig Zag” Zell — who began his political career as a big booster of arch-segregationist GA D Gov. Lester “Ax Handle” Maddox back in the ’60’s, & progressed to become a huge fan of his Senate colleague John Kerry’s war-herosim only a few years ago — came full circle Wednesday night, with a Republican keynote speech that made Pat Buchanan’s “culture wars” one in ‘92 seem positively Sensitive by comparison.

I can’t figure out how to Link to the Video of Zell’s astounding performance — you’ve really got to See & Hear, not just Read, it — but, you can find it, I’m sure.

See? Even the secularistical Democrats’ prayers can be answered! / All things being relative, even Howard Dean can be seen as the Poster Boy for the promise of Anger Management. / “Hope is on the Way!” GO ZELL! :)

UPDATE FROM THE WEBMASTER: Here’s a link to the video. If that doesn’t work, just go to C-SPAN’s RNC page and look around for “Zell Miller.”

I mentioned something below about “eyewall replacement cycles,” and I wanted to attempt an explanation of what I’m talking about. First, take a look at the infrared satellite images below of Hurricane Frances, which were taken today at 4:15 PM EDT and 9:45 PM EDT, respectively:

First, a basic orientation: the darker-colored cloud tops are colder, which means they’re higher in the atmosphere, which means the thunderstorms there are more intense. The colors, of course, are artificially added to make the contrasts easier to see. The eye itself is an area of cloudless calm; the surrounding eyewall is the region where the strongest winds and the most intense rains occur.

Now then, you’ll notice that in the second (later) image, the eye is substantially larger than it was in the first image. Normally, if a hurricane’s eye is getting bigger, that means it’s weakening; the pressure is rising, and the storm become less “tightly wrapped.” (Occasionally, intense hurricanes have huge eyes, but as a rule, a small eye indicates a strong storm.)

In this case, however, what we’re seeing is not a sudden weakening, but an eyewall replacement cycle — quite common in Category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes — wherein the “inner eyewall” basically collapses in on itself, briefly producing the extremely tiny eye of the first image, which then falls apart and is replaced by the larger eye of the second image (previously the “outer eyewall”; you can actually see a hint of it in the lighter-colored cloud tops north of the eye in the first image).

Eyewall replacement cycles can produce temporary weakening, though the extent to which that occurs varies from storm to storm; in this storm, it seems to have been rather mild so far. Sometimes a temporary eyewall-replacement-triggered weakening trend can become more permanent, especially if it occurs concurrently with other unfavorable conditions (e.g., if dry air is sucked into the storm’s inner core). This is one reason why forecasters have so much trouble predicting the intensity of storms like these even a few hours into the future, let alone days.

On the other hand, once a replacement cycle is completed and the new eye and eyewall are fully formed, an intensification phase — sometimes a rapid one — can occur. A storm such as Frances can potentially replace its eyewall, drop its central pressure, and gain 20 mph in wind speed within a few hours. I’ve seen it happen before. (Remember how Charley strengthened from a Category 2 to a Category 4 in a matter of hours with no warning at all? I’m not sure if that’s what happened — I was on a desert island at the time, not watching TV or the Internet — but I’m guessing probably so.)

But again, whether such intensification occurs after an eyewall replacement cycle varies from storm to storm, and from cycle to cycle.

Mind you, I’m a layman, not a meteorologist, so I may be wrong on some of the details here. But this is my understanding, based on what I’m picked up from watching many, many Tropical Updates on The Weather Channel over the years. :)

I know this for sure: the processes that govern both eyewall replacement cycles and rapid intensification phases are very poorly understood by meteorologists, and so are almost impossible to predict. Monster storms like this really create their own environments, and are unlike any other weather phenomena we encounter on Earth. They’re remarkable, beautiful, awe-inspiring — and terrifying, if you’re in their path.

Say a prayer tonight for the people of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States, especially Florida.

LOL:

The hurricane isn’t funny, of course… but Drudge is, sometimes. :)