Blogger Paul of Wizbang is asking people to pray for New Orleans. Or, as Eye of the Storm puts it, “Pray that the forecast is correct.”
Ivan must make that right-hand turn tomorrow, or else the apocalypse forseen in this old news article will come true:
Georges, a Category 2 storm that only grazed New Orleans [in 1998], pushed waves to within a foot of the top of the levees. A stronger storm on a slightly different course — such as the path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall — could have realized emergency officials’ worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of gallons of lake water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage.
That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles. At the same time, high winds and tornadoes would tear at everything left standing. Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross.
Jesus.
The comparison to 9/11 is explicitly made: “If you look at the World Trade Center collapsing, it’ll be like that, but add water. There will be debris flying around, and you’re going to be in the water with snakes, rodents, nutria and fish from the lake. It’s not going to be nice.”
Then there’s this:
Getting the water out is just the first step to making the city livable, officials say. “Imagine the city of New Orleans closed for four to six months,” said Jefferson Parish Emergency Preparedness Director Walter Maestri. “We’ll have to re-evaluate all our sanitary systems, completely evaluate the water and purification systems, evaluate half to two thirds of all buildings to see if they were structurally damaged by water pressure and wind. Restoring electricity will be another complicated problem. Will houses catch fire when they throw the power switch? All that’s going to have to be handled.”
“The projected death and destruction eclipse almost any other natural disaster that people paid to think about catastrophes can dream up,” the article says. And it’s going to happen eventually:
In a given year, for example, the corps says the risk of the lakefront levees being topped is less than 1 in 300. But over the life of a 30-year mortgage, statistically that risk approaches 9 percent.
So it’s a matter of “when,” not “if.” But here’s hoping — fervently hoping — that “when” isn’t Thursday morning.
P.S. Paul, by the way, is himself a New Orleans resident, and he will be leaving the city very soon, according to his post:
Today about a quarter of a million people will be heading north, hoping to ride out the storm in a hotel room and return in a few days glad the storm spared us. Knowing human nature, my family and I will pack a few possessions and papers along with our family photos and head north around 3AM on Wednesday, when the traffic will be the lightest.
Unfortunately, not everyone can evacuate, he explains:
Within these earthen walls live about a million people. In the city itself especially, many of the residents are poor and lack adequate transportation to evacuate. We have always known there was a fatal flaw in our hurricane defense. If the fabled “Big One” ever hit New Orleans we were in big trouble.
So really, he’s right. Prayer is the only defense at this point. (Well, prayer and upper-level wind shear. But hopefully the prayer will help with the shear…)
September 15th, 2004 at 1:11:49 am
Shear off them upperlevel winds, O Lord. / Lord hear our prayer.
**************
FWIW, as of 2:07 am EDT Wed. 9/15, The Weather Channel doesn’t seem to be saying much about things turning Hard in the Big Easy. // Yet. // They are Focusing East of there. Slightly. :>
September 15th, 2004 at 1:36:24 am
Yes, the forecast is for the storm to hit east of New Orleans, probably around Mobile. Quite similar to the above-mentioned Georges, actually. “The path that Georges was on 16 hours before landfall” would have taken it into New Orleans, and the path that Ivan is on now, perhaps 24-30 hours before landfall, would take it into New Orleans. But these storms tend to turn right, and Ivan is forecast to do so, just as Georges did. It’s if it doesn’t that’s the problem. Ivan has been rather uncooperative with the forecast tracks throughout its life, and its tendency has been to err on the side of going left of the expected track. So I can’t help but be rather nervous.
Drudge is now trotting out the 50,000 figure with a link to this article:
Walter Maestri, an emergency manager in New Orleans, America’s most vulnerable metropolitan area, has 10,000 body bags ready in case a major hurricane hits. As Hurricane Ivan’s expected path shifted uncomfortably close to the low-lying urban soup bowl, Maestri said Tuesday he might need a lot more.
If a strong Category 4 storm such as Ivan made a direct hit, he warned, 50,000 people could drown, and the city could cease to exist.
“This could be The One,” Maestri said. “You’re talking about the potential loss of a major metropolitan area.”
September 15th, 2004 at 8:28:46 am
We’re glued to the TV watching, waiting,and praying for the turn (to the north).
September 15th, 2004 at 11:15:05 am
“In the city itself especially, many of the residents are poor and lack adequate transportation to evacuate.”
Well, that’s one way to get rid of poverty. Muah-hahahahaha!
Don’t worry New Orleans, Los Angeles has plenty of Mexicans we can ship you in case you run out of poor blacks and trailer Cajuns.
September 15th, 2004 at 11:27:43 am
It’s a conspiracy! Ivan is a Karl Rove creation! It’s part of the GOP’s plan to kill poor people so the Democrats will get fewer votes!
September 15th, 2004 at 12:32:20 pm
“It’s a conspiracy! Ivan is a Karl Rove creation! It’s part of the GOP’s plan to kill poor people so the Democrats will get fewer votes!”
No, it’s worse than that . . . Ivan was created by terrorists wanting to destroy the American way of life!
September 15th, 2004 at 3:47:10 pm
Honestly you guys, we are talking about a death toll in the thousands. Those are real people who will be dying. Would you be making jokes about the 9/11 dead if you had for some reason been aware of it happening before hand?
I understand joking and all but really, what if someone who read this site had family members down there? I don’t although I do have a friend in Florida, but someone else could. How would you feel if you did?
Shame on you all.
September 15th, 2004 at 3:49:12 pm
That would be really cool if Seattle got hurricanes. Really, all that rain and gloom is just too depressing up there; they need something to jog their abysmal sense of humor!
September 15th, 2004 at 4:14:30 pm
I think it’s a little different when we’re talking about hypothetical deaths (as opposed to inevitable future deaths, as in the case of “making jokes about the 9/11 dead if you had for some reason been aware of it happening before hand”). I’ll grant you that it’s dark humor, but I don’t think it’s shamefully dark, because it’s only hypothetical. And, in truth, it now appears almost certain that it’s not going to happen. Not this time, anyway.
September 15th, 2004 at 4:17:47 pm
As Eye of the Storm says: “Looking at the water vapor loop, one can see that southwesterly flow has progressed east into Louisana. This pretty [much] makes it impossible for Ivan to meander any further west. New Orleans is therefore spared the worst.”
September 15th, 2004 at 4:29:41 pm
Good old grave yard humor. It serves a psychological purpose.
September 15th, 2004 at 5:51:05 pm
Andrew you are an ass.
September 15th, 2004 at 6:41:22 pm
David, Learn to swim.
Some say the end is near.
Some say we’ll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will.
I sure could use a vacation from this
Bulls–t three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks
Here in this hopeless f–king hole we call [Seattle]
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Muah-hahahahahaha!
September 15th, 2004 at 6:47:53 pm
Orange County what?
September 15th, 2004 at 7:12:05 pm
Actually, the song is about LA, which could include Orange County, depending on who you ass–er–ask.
I wouldn’t mind a hurricane hitting Southern California, I think it’d be pretty cool. We’re built for earthquakes, occasionally we get freak twisters, fires are a constant danger, and supposedly we’re susceptible to tsunamis, so hurricanes would be a nice addition that would pretty much make us targets for every disaster known to man (Mammoth could erupt too, but I don’t think the lava would make it down here). But I just like to goad David.
Cuz I’m praying for rain
And I’m praying for tidal waves
I wanna see the ground give way.
I wanna watch it all go down.
Mom please flush it all away.
I wanna watch it go right in and down.
I wanna watch it go right in.
Watch you flush it all away.
Time to bring it down again.
Don’t just call me pessimist.
Try and read between the lines.
I can’t imagine why you wouldn’t
Welcome any change, my friend.
I wanna see it all come down.
September 15th, 2004 at 7:16:05 pm
I realize its dark humour and all, I just think that if any one of the regulars on here had someone who happened to be in that area it might be percieved a little differently.
As I have a best friend who has allready been through two of the Florida hurricances and fortunately been unharmed maybe I am a little sensitive, but whether or not we are talking about hypothetical or inevitable deaths I think joking about them is still crossing the line here.
Like I said, imagien if your brother/sister/girlfriend/mother/father/etc where down there? How would you feel if someone else were making a joke about people dying?
What if it were a joke about soldiers dying in Iraq? Surely those are only hypothetical deaths as well.
I understand dark humor and all, I just think in this case it went a little too far, or atleast started too far, and by Josh joke got milder.
Then again maybe I just don’t see anything funny about people dying in real life.
September 15th, 2004 at 7:50:29 pm
I have family and friends in South Florida, and so does Bea. That didn’t stop me from secretly rooting for Frances to turn into a Category 5 hurricane right before landfall, but then I’m a sick and twisted misanthrope, as you know (Isn’t that required to be a Republican? –ed. Hey, shut it!)
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