Frances evacuation update: 1.2 million. That’s roughly 7.5% of the population of the state of Florida.
Imagine if Saturday (the expected landfall date) were election day. It makes all that talk about election disaster contingency planning seem less like a vast right-wing conspiracy, and more like a real and very serious potential problem, doesn’t it?
UPDATE: The 5:00 PM advisory is out. Frances is down to 140 mph from 145 mph, apparently because it’s in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle. According to the discussion:
Although Frances continues to have a good satellite representation, data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the minimum pressure has risen to 948 mb [from 939 mb] and the eyewall is currently disrupted. … This is probably a minor fluctuation associated with inner core processes and Frances could easily re-intensify.
Regardless, it is expected to hit Florida as a Category Four. The computer models have now converged on a landfall somewhere in south-central Florida. The official forecast track puts it near Fort Pierce at around 2:00 PM EDT Saturday.
In other news, T.D. Nine has formed way out in the tropical Atlantic.
“Imagine if Saturday (the expected landfall date) were election day. It makes all that talk about election disaster contingency planning seem less like a vast right-wing conspiracy, and more like a real and very serious potential problem…”
Of course. Obviously, an election-day (or near-election-day) “natural” disaster, of one kind or another or another, is & has always been a real & serious potential problem. But that reality hasn’t caused us to empower a Federal executive department to postpose or cancel the whole process in case of emergency.
As has been noted here before, September 11, 1991 was Primary day throughout New York State (and CT and MA & various other states as well). NYC suspended & deferred its voting. Everybody else went forward. The Election Calendar waits for no Disaster, “natural” or otherwise — except where absolutely, logistically, necessary.
Note: I predict that the combined effects of Charley & Frances (and, of Winds from Africa yet to come? God forbid) will have an impact on the machinery (never mind the Politics) of the Florida election. Some polling places will have been rendered unusable. Some state & county & local elections offices will have been thrown behind schedule by power outages & workdays lost. Required official mailings will have been delayed. By-mail ballots may even have been lost, in transit through postal facilities that were damaged, flooded, et cetera.
(We must pass a law commanding this to Never Happen Again. :)
I just think it would be useful to have a reasoned national discussion about what is the best tihng to do if such a regional disaster were to occur in a presidential election. My proposal is the same as yours: let the local governments handle it. But somehow I think the public might be slightly shocked, SHOCKED!, at the idea that, for example, Florida might try to postpone its state election for presidential electors while the rest of the country goes ahead with the election, thus either “disenfranchising” Florida voters (if a candidate “clinches” 270 without Florida) or “super-enfranchising” them by giving them the opportunity to “decide” the election (if a candidate doesn’t clinch without Florida).
Yes, I agree that it’s a valid question & should be considered. I was merely making the rather Huffy & Stuffy point :) that election-day disaster is not, intrinsically, a new question, far from it. / Granted, the Age of Terrorism gives it new dimensions, including even the potential capacity to (shudder) Outdo Mother Nature. (Well - to top her Usual stuff, anyway. OTOH, is there an Earthquake Season? Especially, for the West Coast? If so, does it include November? Hoo boy. :)
This is an archived post. Comments are closed.
To leave a comment on a newer post, please visit the homepage.
September 2nd, 2004 at 7:52:40 pm
“Imagine if Saturday (the expected landfall date) were election day. It makes all that talk about election disaster contingency planning seem less like a vast right-wing conspiracy, and more like a real and very serious potential problem…”
Of course. Obviously, an election-day (or near-election-day) “natural” disaster, of one kind or another or another, is & has always been a real & serious potential problem. But that reality hasn’t caused us to empower a Federal executive department to postpose or cancel the whole process in case of emergency.
As has been noted here before, September 11, 1991 was Primary day throughout New York State (and CT and MA & various other states as well). NYC suspended & deferred its voting. Everybody else went forward. The Election Calendar waits for no Disaster, “natural” or otherwise — except where absolutely, logistically, necessary.
Note: I predict that the combined effects of Charley & Frances (and, of Winds from Africa yet to come? God forbid) will have an impact on the machinery (never mind the Politics) of the Florida election. Some polling places will have been rendered unusable. Some state & county & local elections offices will have been thrown behind schedule by power outages & workdays lost. Required official mailings will have been delayed. By-mail ballots may even have been lost, in transit through postal facilities that were damaged, flooded, et cetera.
(We must pass a law commanding this to Never Happen Again. :)
September 2nd, 2004 at 7:57:37 pm
Sept. 11, 1991? :)
I just think it would be useful to have a reasoned national discussion about what is the best tihng to do if such a regional disaster were to occur in a presidential election. My proposal is the same as yours: let the local governments handle it. But somehow I think the public might be slightly shocked, SHOCKED!, at the idea that, for example, Florida might try to postpone its state election for presidential electors while the rest of the country goes ahead with the election, thus either “disenfranchising” Florida voters (if a candidate “clinches” 270 without Florida) or “super-enfranchising” them by giving them the opportunity to “decide” the election (if a candidate doesn’t clinch without Florida).
September 2nd, 2004 at 8:30:17 pm
Rmmph. / Thankyou. Senior Moment. / Bah. :)
Yes, I agree that it’s a valid question & should be considered. I was merely making the rather Huffy & Stuffy point :) that election-day disaster is not, intrinsically, a new question, far from it. / Granted, the Age of Terrorism gives it new dimensions, including even the potential capacity to (shudder) Outdo Mother Nature. (Well - to top her Usual stuff, anyway. OTOH, is there an Earthquake Season? Especially, for the West Coast? If so, does it include November? Hoo boy. :)