So it’s only fair that I should be going to the West Coast. OK, so I’ll be a little farther west than Brendan usually is. I’ll be in San Diego for the next week or so, so if anyone is looking for me or if anyone misses my usual liberal rants, I’m sorry, Mr. Loy, fellow guest-bloggers, and other frequent visitors . . . You won’t have Josh to scream at for the next week. Here are a list of things to talk about in my absence:

1. Monkeys. This is Brendan’s website. You have to talk about monkeys every now and then.
2. The peanut is neither a pea nor a nut.
3. The Red Sox will take over first place in the AL East at some point in the near future.

OK, so the list is relatively short. Enjoy the Republican Convention; I’ll be as far away as I can get while still remaining in the lower 48 states. (Of course, I’m sure someone will tell me that San Diego is not the farthest from the Republican Convention one can travel within the lower 48 states, but to heck with you . . . I’ll still be pretty darned far away).

And just my guess about the convention: They’re going to nominate Bush again. And Cheney for Veep. See how stupid and predictable these nominating conventions have become?

There has been much talk about Kerry’s post-convention “bounce,” of lack thereof. I, for one, am not terribly concerned about this; between the unusually low ratings for the convention and the unusually high number of voters who have already made up their minds, I figured that the bounce would be rather minimal. Anyway, bounces tend to be transitory — Dukakis had a big one; a lot of good that did him — so I’m not sure it really matters much in the long run. Mickey Kaus, however, is in full Dem Panic mode, even going so far as to bring up the Torricelli Option. Myself, I think there’s plenty of reason to panic, but not because Kerry isn’t bouncy — just because he’s a bad candidate generally.

Far more significant than any popular-vote bounce, of course, is the latest state-by-state polling. Kerry seems to have enjoyed a bounce in New Hampshire, where he has doubled his lead to 9 points. He’s also up 3% instead of down 3% in West Virginia, a six-point Zogby switcheroo in a week’s time. (If all states go according to 2000 form except New Hampshire and West Virginia, Bush and Kerry will finish tied 269-269.)

Kerry has also bounced into the lead in Florida, where it’s JK by 2.8% instead of W by 0.1%.

On the other hand, there seems to have been a rather substantial reverse bounce in New Mexico, where Kerry’s lead has dwindled from 10% to 2%, and a slightly less substantial but still significant reverse bounce in the crucial battleground state of Ohio, where Bush’s lead is up from 1.3% to 5%.

Squeaky-closest states right now: Missouri (Kerry by 0.6%) and Nevada (Bush by 0.6%).

But enough about George, Dick and the Johns — what about the all-important BrendanLoy.com post-convention bounce? Is the site’s ridiculously heavy traffic last week having an “echo” effect even though InstaPundit and Wonkette are no longer sending visitors this way? Well, it’s too early to say for sure, but things are look good thus far. We got 310 and 336 unique hits on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, totals which are quite good for weekend days, and yesterday produced 479 hits, which is about 150 more than our pre-convention daily average. Today, as of 5:30 PM MST, we’ve played host to 306 unique visitors and counting. That puts us on pace to hit above-average levels by the end of the day, though how far above average remains to be seen. But, let’s put it this way: we’re getting more of a bounce than Kerry. :)

I saw the following headline on CNN’s home page today

U.S. men’s basketball team crushed by Italy

Now obviously they are referring to the fact that the US lost miserably to the Italians, but for some reason I couldn’t get the picture out of my head of our basketball team being crushed by the actual country ala Monty Python or a Fark Photoshopping.

From an L.A. Times article (free registration required).

Basically it says that Wal-Mart employees account for a disproportionate amount of state relief money.

Full text of article after the jump.

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Becky sends along an article suggesting “that major depression and bipolar depression are not two distinct disorders,” with research showing that “patients with recurrent major depression may experience several manic or hypomanic symptoms throughout their lifetimes.” Excerpt:

“The presence of a significant number of manic/hypomanic items in patients with recurrent major depression seems to challenge the traditional dichotomy of unipolar-bipolar disorder and bridges the gap between these two categories of mood disorders,” the researchers stated in their study report.

Interesting. Really, though, I’d say this feeds into my general theory that rigid definitions of distinct mental illnesses are by their nature artificial, since the brain is so damn complex and everybody’s functions a little differently. Which in turn leads to my related theory that “there are two types of people in this world: those with a mental illness, and those who haven’t been properly diagnosed yet; everything else is just a matter of degree.”

Anyway… getting back to theories propounded by people who actually know what they’re talking about :), the May 2004 issue of Scientific American featured a fascinating article (which I read only recently because it was lying around in our bathroom here) arguing that recent developments in neurological/psychiatric/psychological research suggest that many of Dr. Freud, however much we might wish he had been differently employed, was actually onto something with many of his theories. Excerpt:

When Freud introduced the central notion that most mental processes that determine our everyday thoughts, feelings and volitions occur unconsciously, his contemporaries rejected it as impossible. But today’s findings are confirming the existence and pivotal role of unconscious mental processing. For example, the behavior of patients who are unable to consciously remember events that occurred after damage to certain memory-encoding structures of their brains is clearly influenced by the “forgotten” events. Cognitive neuroscientists make sense of such cases by delineating different memory systems that process information “explicitly” (consciously) and “implicitly” (unconsciously). Freud split memory along just these lines.

Neuroscientists have also identified unconscious memory systems that mediate emotional learning. In 1996 at New York University, LeDoux demonstrated the existence under the conscious cortex of a neuronal pathway that connects perceptual information with the primitive brain structures responsible for generating fear responses. Because this pathway bypasses the hippocampus — which generates conscious memories — current events routinely trigger unconscious remembrances of emotionally important past events, causing conscious feelings that seem irrational, such as “Men with beards make me uneasy.”

Neuroscience has shown that the major brain structures essential for forming conscious (explicit) memories are not functional during the first two years of life, providing an elegant explanation of what Freud called infantile amnesia. As Freud surmised, it is not that we forget our earliest memories; we simply cannot recall them to consciousness. But this inability does not preclude them from affecting adult feelings and behavior. One would be hard-pressed to find a developmental neurobiologist who does not agree that early experiences, especially between mother and infant, influence the pattern of brain connections in ways that fundamentally shape our future personality and mental health. Yet none of these experiences can be consciously remembered. It is becoming increasingly clear that a good deal of our mental activity is unconsciously motivated.

There’s much more, of course. Alas, you have to pay $7.95 to read the article on SciAm’s website. But you can get the full text here from a usenet archive; it’s ugly and difficult to read, but it’s there — just click the link and then do a Find On This Page for for “Neuroscientists.”

…or, at least, is descended from it. Researchers have determined that dingoes–the wild dogs of Australia–are descended from domestic dogs from southern Thailand and China, not the wild wolves of India or Arabia as was previously thought.

Unfortunately, the article has not yet actually been published, so I can’t confirm that the reporting is correct. I’ll update as events warrant.

Newsday reports:

More financial institutions than previously disclosed may be at risk of attack, and an al-Qaida operative has told British intelligence that the group’s target date is early September, intelligence sources said yesterday.

The operative, described as “credible” by British intelligence, told his debriefers that the attack would take place “60 days before the presidential election” on Nov. 2, according to a former senior National Security Council official. On Sept. 2 President George W. Bush is expected to address the Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden.

(Exactly 60 days before the presidential election would actually be Sept. 3.)

But, as Drudge said yesterday, various major newspapers are reporting today that the information that led to yesterday’s terror alert was years old:

New York Times: Much of the information that led the authorities to raise the terror alert at several large financial institutions in the New York City and Washington areas was three or four years old, intelligence and law enforcement officials said on Monday. They reported that they had not yet found concrete evidence that a terrorist plot or preparatory surveillance operations were still under way.

Washington Post: There is nothing right now that we’re hearing that is new,” said one senior law enforcement official who was briefed on the alert. “Why did we go to this level? . . . I still don’t know that.”

Los Angeles Times: Despite the elaborate details about five financial institutions in New York; Newark, N.J.; and Washington that are contained in the files, officials said they had been unable to learn whether Al Qaeda had agents in this country preparing for attacks.

But several senior U.S. counterterrorism officials said that the surveillance, obtained in Pakistan and reviewed late last week by authorities in Washington, came amid a continuing stream of intelligence corroborating Al Qaeda’s determination to launch strikes in the U.S.

“It’s like you have this blank piece of paper and it’s filling up with more and more dots. It all points to an attack,” said one senior Department of Homeland Security official.

In response to folks like Howard Dean who think this alert is politically motivated, Tom Ridge said, “We don’t do politics in the Department of Homeland Security. Our job is to identify the threat.” And, to my great relief, the Kerry campaign has publicly stated that it doesn’t buy into the conspiracy theories:

Some Democrats accuse the administration of politicizing the war on terror by timing announcements such as Sunday’s to draw attention to Bush and away from Kerry.

“It’s just impossible to know how much of this is real and how much of this is politics, and I suspect there’s some of both in it,” former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean said Sunday on CNN.

The Kerry camp refused to level that charge. A senior intelligence official briefed Kerry about the threat by secure phone late Sunday as Kerry rode in his bus through Michigan. [Kerry foreign policy adviser Jamie] Rubin said Kerry considered the threat “serious.”

“We would not want to say there is any political motivation,” Kerry campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill said Monday. “We take the president at his word.”

Tropical Storm Alex strengthened rapidly overnight, achieving hurricane status at 5:00 AM and Category 2 hurricane status at 11:00 AM. (Gotta love the Gulf Stream.) It now has winds of 100 mph, and as of noon, its center was 20 miles south of Cape Hatteras, NC. But as the radar shows, the eyewall is hitting Hatteras the rest of the Outer Banks as we speak:

I’m on the phone with Becky right now, but stay tuned for updates.

UPDATE: Here’s a satellite view:

And here’s an animated radar image. As you can see, it looks like Alex’s eye isn’t going to quite make landfall — but the eyewall is onshore now:

According to The Weather Channel, the strongest part of the eyewall is on the right-hand side of the storm, so the 100 mph winds are staying offshore.

Meanwhile, a new tropical system has formed way out in the Atlantic — Tropical Depression Two. The five-day forecast suggests it, too, may eventually threaten the East Coast:

Today, Capitol Hill and parts of Foggy Bottom have been shut down to most liberties, including the right to privacy. Cars are being searched, and armed Capitol Police officers have the right to remove anything they deem as dangerous.

Apparently, this does not even count as “unreasonable search and seizure,” as protected by the US Constitution. The theory that the Courts have handed down is that by simply being in these areas, we have consented to these searches.

Congresswoman (er, Delegate . . . I keep forgetting that Congress isn’t being nice and won’t let DC have a vote . . .) Elenor Holmes-Norton is rightly upset, calling the decisions “arrogant” and “mind-boggling.” Closing some of the main traffic arteries in the District has slowed things down to a halt.

I have an appointment on Capitol Hill later on today (hopefully one which will help land me a job). I’ll let everyone know exactly how repressive things are getting.

In the meantime, I only have one thing to say:

The terrorists are likely not stupid enough to go through with the attacks at any time this week. At least not against the Hill, IMF/World Bank buildings, or any target in New York. Think about it. They know they’ve been found out. They know that security will be tight. They won’t be so stupid as to actually try to go through with the attacks in DC or NY (at least at those specific locations). Yet there are only some parts of downtown with increased security.

Not that I really want to be hand-searched when I step off the Metro in a few hours, but you still have to wonder at how much the Administration seems to be underestimating the terrorists’ mental abilities.

If America is going to be subjected to these unreasonable searches, we should certainly focus on what’s important . . . like arresting women who eat candy bars in Metro stations.

UPDATE

Yeah, so I took the Metro downtown . . . I’m not stupid enough (or rich enough) to try parking downtown. But what I could gather is this: A few cops at the so-called “access points” stopping cars, just as was promised. It all seemed like a serious waste of manpower, since DC does have one of the highest crime rates in the country . . . but we won’t talk about that.

My fellow citizens of the world, our newly-adopted Constitution has been put in place, and our future has been laid out before us. We must remember, however, that the future will not be easy. We still have many obstacles before us.

Our recent battles with the Mutant Shoe invasion has shown us that we must stand united. We can no longer remain divided amongst ourselves.

That is why I am pleased to announce that a local insurance-turned-pirate organization, the Crimson Assurance, will be on permanent patrol of the world, and anyone who dissents with our public policy will be shot. Questions will be asked later. This is to make sure we remain firm in our unity and firm in our opposition to the libertarian mutant shoe threat.

I hereby make the following presidential decrees:

1. Everyone must agree with me, or else you are un-Earthlike.
2. Everyone will be given one flag from the moment they are born. They must wrap themselves in it from that moment; any criticism of that person will be considered a criticism of the flag and thereby of the world government. The Crimson Assurance will then step in and liquidate all involved.
3. Any criticism of the government will brand you a Mutant Shoe and will be dealt with in the same manner as the Mutant Shoes are dealt.
4. You must all chop down the mightiest tree in the forest with . . . a herring!
5. To make a second mention to the Constitution, I must remind you all of Article XV: there is to be no criticism of President Rubin (his policies, his person, or his breath) in a blog.
6. For you, my fellow citizens, I pledge that during my tenure in office, that every time you pass Go, you collect five hundred dollars. Who can really live on two hundred dollars these days? There are two Earths: One where you get a thousand dollars for passing Go and one where you only get two hundred. I pledge that those who get a thousand dollars for passing go will henceforth be required to pay 25% or five hundred dollars when they land on Income Tax and they will also be required to pay a hundred fifty dollars when they land on Luxury Tax. We must bridge the gap between rich and poor.

My fellow citizens of Earth, our future will be hard, but we can do this together.

That is why I’m going to tell you to keep visiting BrendanLoy.com. We must remain united because “The Shoes are on their way!”

Furthermore, I would like to remind you all that Vice President (and Founder) Brendan Loy and Secretary of State for Religion and Governance (and Second Founder) Sean Vivier will be in charge during my absence. Barring their availability (should a Shoe take them out), I will give you a topic to discuss: the Holy Roman Empire was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire.

But remain ever-vigilant, my citizens, for the Shoes are on their way!

Thank you. Good night, and may the Great Bird of the Galaxy bless us all!

The main purpose of my trip home this week is to sort through my old stuff, box up the things I want to keep, and throw out the rest — with the latter group being ideally much larger than the former. Naturally, this process is bringing me face-to-face with lots of souvenirs and relics of past years that inspire all sorts of memories. For example, earlier tonight I came across the cardboard signs that we used on Election Night 2000 to keep track of the results in the Daily Trojan office. With much reluctance, I am throwing these signs out, but at my dad’s suggestion, I took pictures to preserve them for posterity digitally. Here’s our electoral-vote-count sign, which both Dane and Andrew may vaguely remember:

Note how the Bush total (reading counterclockwise from bottom up on the far right-hand side, after we ran out of room) goes from 246 to 271 back to 246 again (the next morning; our paper had gone to press on Election Night with the headline “At the eleventh hour, Bush wins”) and finally back to 271 again (more than a month later!).

Also entertaining is the section near the bottom center that says “Assuming CA, HI, Gore needs 40 votes from these states.” This was an on-the-fly calculation by yours truly done before the polls had closed on the West Coast. You may notice that the word “Bush” is written in red next to Oregon and Wisconsin, which Gore actually won. At first, looking at this tonight, I was thinking maybe those states had been called for Bush at some point, but then I remembered: the word “Bush” was written there by Andrew before the states were called for either candidate. It was his way of saying, “No way — Bush will win there.” Heh.

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While Brendan has pointed out how well USC will be represented at the Olympics for me (and Mike, and Dane, and Andrew, etc) to cheer for this summer its nice to know that I will have a local Olympian to cheer for as well. Jarred Rome, a 1996 graduate of Marysville-Pilchuck High School may have a tough time medaling though, his 215 feet, 9 inch discus throw to claim the U.S. Olympic Trials title is a little short of the 223 feet that all three medal winners surpassed in the previous Olympics. Hopefully a little home town cheering will help him to the awards stand later this month.

In an unprecedented occurrence the newly minted New World State has come under relentless attack by a band of mutant shoes. The mutant shoes clam to be part of a group calling itself the Universal Order. While reports of the shoes’ affiliation are yet to be confirmed, the Universal Order is know to be a libertarian splinter group bent on dominating the Universe. Last year they split from the Order of the Universe over a disagreement on tactics. In the months that followed the Universal Order also took over the Popular Peoples Front of the Universe, and The Peoples Universe Front.

Although these groups were previously peaceful, the creation of the Quantum Improbability drive, (running on top notch British tea) has lead to a rapid expansion of the groups holdings.

If true, the use of Mutant Shoes to further their cause would be a dramatic shift in policy. And could signify the emergence of a Libertarian Liberation front, and a strong split in Universal governance.

Film at eleven.

Sayeth Drudge:

Much of the information that led authorities to raise the terror alert at several large financial institutions in the NY and D.C. areas was 3 or 4 years old… NYT Tuesday Page One Splash To Claim: Intelligence and law enforcement officials ‘had not yet found concrete evidence that a terror plot or preparatory surveillance operations were still under way’…

UPDATE: More…

WASH POST Page One: Alerts Stemmed from Pre-9/11 Acts /// ‘There is nothing right now that we’re hearing that is new,’ said one senior law enforcement official who was briefed on the alert. ‘Why did we go to this level?… I still don’t know that’… POST: ‘Most of the information was compiled prior to the Sept. 11 attacks and that there are serious doubts about the age of other, undated files’…

Was it political?!

Article I, Nobody talks about the World State.
Article II, Nobody talks about the World State.
Article III, Single payer system for groceries.
Article IV, Josh Rubin, President for Life.
Aricle V, All naked statues worldwide shall be covered by a curtain.
Article VI, Establishes state-run media to be headed by Matt Drudge.
Article VII, Freedom fries are outlawed.
Article VIII, Anyone speaking French shall be shot on sight.
Article IX, Root beer is neither root nor beer. (Congress shall discuss.)
Article X, Should President Rubin become verklempt, he shall give Congress a topic.
Article XI, Wherein 5-scoop Reese’s pieces Sundaes shall be the state delicacy.
Article XII, Wherein Friendly’s is given a no-bid contract for food service at the World Capitol in Geneva.
Article XIII, In which no member state shall be required to recognize heterosexual marriage.
Article XIV, Mmm… donuts.
Article XV, No citizen shall be convicted of treason unless there are two eyewitnesses to the same overt act, and/or if said citizen criticized President Rubin in a blog comment.
Article XVI, We reserve the right to prosecute ex post facto laws.
Article XVII, No person of short stature may bear the surname Long.
Article XVIII, Non-redheads shall count as three-fifths of a person.
Article XIX, Congress shall make no law abridging the right to keep and arm bears.
Article XX, Glenn Reynolds shall be the lifelong Minister of Information. His official title shall be InstaMinister.
Article XXI, Congress shall make no law abridging the freedom of speech, except in the case of stupid liberal blowhards. (Michael Moore, this means you.)
Article XXII, All citizens shall be required to listen to stupid conservative blowhards.
Article XXIII, O.J. is guilty.
Article XXIV, Thou shalt have no other state before me.
Article XXV, You cannot pass. I am the Servant of the Secret Fire, Wielder of the Flame of Anor.
Article XXVI, Mmm… chocolate.
Article XXVII, Habeas corpus? You know I don’t speak Spanish.
Article XXVIII, Great Odin’s raven!
Article XXIX, Learn English! Get a job!
Article XXX, All movies not quoted in the Constitution shall be banned.
Article XXXI, Catnip? Uh… that’s not mine.
Article XXXII, The meek shall inherit the earth, and then shall give it to the nerds.
Article XXXIII, Ni!
Article XXXIV, Give us a shrubbery!
Article XXXV, Give us us free!

Ratified on this day August the 2nd in the year of Your Lord 2004, in Congress assembled.

Friendly’s
Newington/Berlin Border

Signed:
Sean Vivier
Brendan Loy

UPDATE BY THE WEBMASTER: Here’s a photo of the Constitution. Note the chocolate spilled near Article XXVI.