Captain Ed: “Just when I think this [Swift Boat] story may lose momentum, it just grows new legs. The Torricelli option continues to beckon the Democrats the longer Kerry refuses to release all the records and put an end to all the speculation — assuming that the records haven’t already been doctored…”
Mickey Kaus: The Vietnam kerfuffle “wouldn’t be so important if Kerry had a) a discernable ideology; b) a political message; c) a record of achievement; or d) an appealing personality!”
[Hill-a-ry! Hill-a-ry! -ed.]
P.S. CNN gives Bush a 274-264 Electoral College lead. Electoral-vote.com has Kerry ahead, 270-259 (with Colorado a tossup), but notes, “It is interesting to note that if CNN is right except for Nevada, it is an exact tie, 269 to 269.”
The way things are going, though, I think Bush will get at least 300 EVs when all is said and done.
P.P.S. Here’s a fun Electoral College animation.
P.P.P.S. Hmm… it’s actually kind of hard to get Bush to 300 without giving him Pennsylvania or Michigan, both of which my gut tells me will vote for Kerry. But, all right, I’ll give him Michigan, owing to a large Nader effect (Nader’s ethnically Arab, and he’s antiwar, and Michigan has lots of Arab-Americans). I’m giving him New Hampshire and Maine, too, along with all the key battlegrounds (FL, OH, MO, IA) and the close states that “should be” red (TN, WV, CO, AZ, NV, etc.). Kerry gets NM, PA, WA, OR, MN, WI and the solid blues. That makes it 306-232.
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Categories: Election 2004
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August 28th, 2004 at 6:03:51 pm
“…I’ll give him Michigan, owing to a large Nader effect…”
Michigan is the state whose recognized Reform Party did not certify Nader elector nominees, i.e., will not put Nader on its ballot line. Nader of course disputes this (just as he disputes everything, everywhere that he has failed to make the ballot :) and has Sued. He also turned in 5,000 signatures as an ‘independent’ — far less than the minimum required — to somehow ‘preserve his rights’. Republicans turned in many more on his behalf. // IOW: Nader will not be on the Michigan ballot, unless his litigation there succeeds.
You are too pessimistic, B. Kerry will take all 6 New England states, and Iowa, and several of the Southern and/or Border states. Ohio & Florida remain the biggies, yes, but they aren’t settled in the Bush column. This is a long way from over.
August 29th, 2004 at 3:37:21 am
I’m not saying it’s over now — I’m projecting ahead. I can’t see the breaks going Kerry’s way. If the election were held today, Kerry would probably win, but I think it’s just going to get worse for him from here. But you might be right that I’m being too pessimistic. Maybe I should have said “Bush will get at least 285 EVs” instead of 300. Take away Maine and Michigan and he gets exactly 285.
August 29th, 2004 at 8:55:51 pm
This passage of Kerry statements in those 1971 hearings certainly doesn’t make me feel any better about a potential Kerry presidency.