FLASH: Inevitable tsunami will destroy East Coast:

Bill McGuire, the director of the Benfield Grieg Hazard Research Centre at University College London, said a huge chunk of rock, roughly the size of the Isle of Man, [is] on the brink of breaking off the volcanic island of La Palma in the Canaries.

When - Professor McGuire says it is not a matter of if - the rock plunges into the ocean it will trigger giant waves called mega-tsunamis. …

Computer models of the island’s collapse show the first regions to be hit, with waves topping 100 metres (330ft), will be the neighbouring Canary Islands. Within a few hours the west coast of Africa will be battered with similar-sized waves.

Between nine and 12 hours after the island collapses, waves between 20 and 50 metres high will have crossed 4,000 miles of ocean to crash into the Caribbean islands and the eastern seaboard of the US and Canada.

The worst-hit will be harbours and estuaries, which will channel the waves inland. The loss of life and destruction to property will probably be immense, according to Prof McGuire.

Somebody call Tom Ridge. (No, seriously!)

Prof. McGuire says we need to install more seismometers at La Palma, so we can get the necessary early warning. Such sensors “could warn of an impending eruption two weeks in advance,” the Guardian states…

But no one knows whether the island will collapse during the next eruption, or in an eruption that will not happen for centuries.

Ordering mass evacuations would have a huge financial impact that could cause resentment if it turned out to be a false alarm. The disaster could affect up to 100 million people from the coast of Africa to the Canary islands and the east coast of North America.

“The future president of the US has got to make a call at some point, that when La Palma erupts, what is he going to do?” Prof McGuire said.

“Is he going to evacuate all the major cities on the east coast? If he gets it wrong, nobody’s ever going to pay attention again and he’ll be out of a job.”

Out of a job… hmm… Hey! President Bush! I heard La Palma is about to blow! :)

But, um, in all seriousness, this is kinda scary. I mean, we’re not talking about something like an asteroid collision or an ice age where the relevant time scale is millenia. We’re talking about centuries here, if that.

Screw Tom Ridge. Somebody call Bruce Willis.

UPDATE: Yup:

Tidal waves which could swamp the eastern seaboard of the Americas are a more pressing concern than the chance of an asteroid causing mass destruction, according to scientists studying natural disasters. …

Professor McGuire, from the Benfield Grieg Hazard Research Centre, says that some time in the next few thousand years, the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the Canary Island of La Palma will collapse. …

On a brighter note, scientist Benny Peiser of John Moores University in Liverpool told the same news conference that the threat of a cataclysmic strike on the earth by a large asteroid was fading rapidly as money was pumped into finding them.

This story is getting a fair amount of attention.

UPDATE UPDATE: Here’s more on the all-important question of timing:

[T]he volcano could erupt any day - it has been dormant since 1971 but tends to erupt every 20 to 200 years.

Of course, as Prof. McGuire said, the next eruption might not necessarily trigger a collapse. But then again, it might.

Incidentally, the headline of the above-linked article is “Volcano could trigger tsunami disaster for New York.” As Sean wrote about The Day After Tomorrow, “Once again, the whole world is endangered, and to us that means… New York.” Heh.

The Scotsman says the disaster could happen “at any moment” (which is technically true, if rather sensationalistic), and adds:

After travelling 4,000 miles the wave would be lower and wider, but still between 60 and 160-ft high. Stretching for many miles, it would sweep up to 20 miles inland, destroying everything in its path. Boston, New York, Washington DC and Miami would be virtually wiped off the map and tens of millions of people killed.

We’re all gonna die!!! [blood-curdling scream]

The Scotsman article also points out: “Any evacuation plan would have to be based on the forecast of an eruption, since once the collapse happened it would be too late.”

Wait, you mean we can’t evacuate the entire East Coast in nine hours? Aw, c’mon, it could happen. In The Day After Tomorrow, they evacuated the entire southern half of the country into Mexico in, what, like a day? Have some faith, people! :)

Here’s a map:

Okay, so it’s not a very good map, but it’s a map.

Looks like Ireland would be hit considerably harder than England. Doesn’t that figure… the Brits oppress the Irish people for all those years, and then Ireland shields England from the brunt of the tsunami. Bloody brilliant. :)

Here’s the BBC’s spin:

Giant tsunamis, super volcanoes and earthquakes could pose a greater threat than terrorism, scientists claim.

Global Geophysical Events, or “Gee Gee’s”, as they are nick-named, are not being taken seriously enough, they say.

Gee Gees???

Pretty much all the coverage of this so far seems to be from British media. I wonder how long it will take the American media to catch on?