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March 2004
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Freak hurricane in Brazil
Posted by on Friday, March 26, 2004 at 12:29 pm

A “freak” hurricane is taking aim at the southern Brazilian coast, a place where sea-surface temperatures are only in the 70s and tropical cyclones are almost unheard of.


I-95 to be shut for weeks
Posted by on Friday, March 26, 2004 at 12:24 pm

A “spectacular fire” caused by the crash of a tanker truck carrying heating oil has seriously damaged a portion of I-95 in Bridgeport, Connecticut, and officials are promising “weeks of havoc for commuters and truckers who use the crucial artery connecting New York to Connecticut and the rest of New England,” the Hartford Courant reports.

“It’s going to be a pain in the neck,” said Connecticut’s soon-to-be-impeached governor, John Rowalnd. (”It takes one to know one,” the citizens of Connecticut replied.)

Here is a live webcam view of the damaged portion of the highway:

More Bridgeport webcams here.

Bridgeport’s newspaper, the Connecticut Post, has complete coverage of the story.

(Hat tip to my dad.)

UPDATE: Here’s an article about the economic impact of this situation.


21 still alive; Becky’s family excels
Posted by on Friday, March 26, 2004 at 7:53 am

The Living Room Times ninth annual men’s basketball pool is down to a Terrific 21 — including five members of the extended Zak-Boeckler-Caplin-Hartranft family, who between them have a 52.5 percent chance of winning the pool.

The first half of the Sweet Sixteen on Thursday eliminated an unlucky thirteen from any chance of winning the pool , leaving 21 contestants who could, mathematically speaking, still finish first.

With eleven games left to be played — and 2,048 possible scenarios for how all of those games could play out — Paul Zak, the leader in the pool, is also the statistical leader in terms of his odds of winning. He would win in 639 scenarios, or 31.2% of the total.

The contestant second-most likely to win is Paul’s aunt, Ginny Zak, who, although she is presently tied for fourth place, would win in 346 scenarios, or 16.9%.

Three of Ginny Zak’s brothers and brothers-in-law are also still in the running: Larry Caplin, Steve Hartranft and 2003 women’s pool champion Rick Boeckler.

Rosalie Town, despite being in 23rd place, is USC’s best hope for a victory; she has a 9.6% chance. Timothy Benson, 25th in the standings, is Newington High’s best chance, winning in 7.4% of the scenarios.

On the flip side, Kristin Vasil, although currently flying high in second place, would only win in 0.7% of the scenarios — 15 of 2,048, to be exact.

Here are the latest standings from Pick 65. Here are the “best-result scenarios” showing each contestant’s best possible finish and current “must-win” games.

The 13 contestants eliminated Thursday were: Andrew Long (currently 8th), Todd Stigliano (11th), Dennis Chow (16th), Ryan McBride (18th), Ben Benack (21st), Joanna Rubin (21st), Rich Simon (33rd), Rachel Wetherill (37th), Scott Loomer (43rd), Madeline Larkin (44th), Brian Newbold (63rd), Suzanne Ogden (66nd), and Becky Zak (71st).

That leaves Paul Zak (1st place, 31.2% chance), Kristin Vasil (2nd, 0.7%), Jeff Santos (3rd, 0.6%), Ginny Zak (4th, 16.9%, Larry Caplin (4th, 3.4%), Tom Greca (6th, 3.2%), Steve Hartranft (6th, 0.6%), Luke Thomsen (8th, 5.8%), Danielle Thomsen (11th, 4.5%), Matt Kagan (14th, 5.7%), Rick Boeckler (16th, 0.4%), Adam Williams (18th, 1.0%), Stacey Tetreault (20th, 1.4%), Rosalie Town (23rd, 9.6%), Timothy Benson (25th, 7.4%), Beth Milewski (30th, 0.6%), Chris Evans (30th, 2.7%), Dan Port (38th, 0.2%), Kristy LaPlante (44th, 2.0%), “Gadget” (50th, 5.1%), and Brenden Roche (62nd, 0.6%).

Of the 21 contestants still alive to win the pool, nine are students or alumni from Newington High School: Timothy Benson, Luke Thomsen, Matt Kagan, Danielle Thomsen, Tom Greca, Kristin Vasil, Brenden Roche, Jeff Santos, Beth Milewski.

Five of the 21 are relatives of pool administrator Brendan Loy’s girlfriend Becky Zak: her mother Ginny, her cousin Paul, and her uncles Larry, Steve and Rick. A sixth contestant, Kristy LaPlante, is one of Becky’s best friends from high school.

Just two are people who pool administrator Brendan Loy met while in college at USC: Rosalie Town and Dan Port. A third, Chris Evans, is a 37-year-old USC alumnus who is a frequent commenter on BrendanLoy.com. No one from USC has ever won a Living Room Times pool.

The other three still-alive contestants are, like Evans, Internet entrants whom Loy has never personally met: University of New Haven sophomore Stacey Tetreault, Indianapolis high-school student Adam Williams, and “Gadget.”

“Gadget,” however, may be disqualified from the pool later today. He/she has not responded to repeated e-mail requests for additional identifying information, and Living Room Times pool rules do not allow contestants to compete using only an anonymous handle or a false identity. “We Todd” was disqualified from this year’s pools during the first round when he gave Loy several conflicting and evasive answers about his identity.

Loy told Gadget that he/she will be disqualified from the pool after tonight’s games if Loy does not receive a satisfactory e-mail response by then. If that occurs, the probabilities will be re-calculated without Gadget.

At present, scenario analysis shows that Gadget would win in 104 scenarios. If Gadget is disqualified, no one else would “become” mathematically alive, but the 104 scenarios would be split among Paul Zak (who would gain 6 winning scenarios), Tom Greca (8), Timothy Benson (8), Larry Caplin (16), Danielle Thomsen (32), and Rosalie Town (42). Town’s chance of winning would increase from 9.6% to 11.7%. Thomsen’s would increase from 4.5% to 6.1%. The others would see smaller increases.

UPDATE: It has been revealed that Stacey Tetreault is not merely a random Internet entrant in the pool. Although she and pool administrator Brendan Loy have never personally met, Tetreault is a friend of NHS grad Matt Thomsen, and it was Thomsen who invited her to join the pool. So Tetreault, whose hometown is Groveton, New Hampshire, is sort of a member of the extended Newington High sphere of influence. :)


A Picture Share!
Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 10:26 pm
You have a Picture Share!

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St. Joe's wins! Pool standings: Paul Zak 232, Kristin Vasil 225, Jeff Santos 220, Ginny Zak 217, Larry Caplin 217. I'll do the scenarios and probabilities on the bus tomorrow. :)


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A Picture Share!
Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 9:35 pm
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We are leaving… Alabama en route to victory. See audio posts below for more.


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audio post powered by audblog
Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 9:32 pm

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Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 9:26 pm

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Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 9:13 pm

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A Picture Share!
Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 8:26 pm
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Well, this game is a bit closer. :) Alabama leads Syracuse 38-36 at halftime.


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A Picture Share!
Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 7:43 pm
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Mmmm… massively overpriced popcorn. :)


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A Picture Share!
Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 7:39 pm
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Alabama and Syracuse just tipped off here in Phoenix. Oklahoma State wins in East Rutherford. Here are the current pool standings, according to my handy multiple-scenario printout:


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A Picture Share!
Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 7:04 pm
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UConn wins, 73-53! On to the Elite Eight!


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A Picture Share!
Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 5:55 pm
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Huskies 45, Commodores 23, almost halftime.


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A Picture Share!
Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 5:34 pm
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Woohoo! UConn leads, 23-8!


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A Picture Share!
Posted by on Thursday, March 25, 2004 at 5:05 pm
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Cheering for the wrong team.


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