The freak cyclone off the coast of southern Brazil has officially been designated a hurricane. It is the first hurricane ever reported in the South Atlantic.

Things to do before leaving for this afternoon’s UConn-Alabama regional final in downtown Phoenix:

1. Print the rosters for UConn and Alabama so I won’t be tempted to buy an $8.00 program.

2. Learn the UConn fight song so I can sing along with it.

3. Make a sign that says “BRING ON DUKE!”

Paul Zak will lead The Living Room Times’s ninth annual men’s NCAA pool at the end of the day today — that much is certain.

But it could be a pyrrhic victory for Zak, whose bracket calls for a now-impossible Texas vs. Kentucky championship game. If Alabama beats UConn this afternoon, Zak — despite being in first place — will be eliminated from any chance of winning the pool (meaning that someone would be certain to pass him under all possible scenarios).

With only seven tournament games left, two of them today (UConn vs. Alabama and St. Joe’s vs. Oklahoma State), the immediate leaderboard is no longer the main story. In the mathematical probability contest, this is crunch time. Currently, there are 128 scenarios for how the tournament could play out; at the end of the day, there will be only 32.

That means a number of contestants — anywhere between three and seven — are bound to be mathematically eliminated today. The only person who is safe is Ben Eng; his bracket depends on a Duke-Georgia Tech title game, and because both of those teams don’t play until tomorrow, Eng is safe for at least another day. But any of the other nine people still in contention for the pool championship could be eliminated today.

Here are the current “scenario standings,” showing the number of scenarios out of 128 in which each contestant would win:

Ginny Zak 30
Ben Eng 26
Timothy Benson 25
Tom Greca 19
Rosalie Town 12
Matt Kagan 11
Paul Zak 7
Chris Evans 6
Kristy LaPlante 2
Adam Williams 1

Here is today’s summarized mathematical-elimination picture:

Ginny Zak eliminated if both UConn and St. Joe’s win.
Ben Eng not eliminated under any circumstances.
Timothy Benson eliminated if both Alabama and Oklahoma State win.
Tom Greca eliminated if both Alabama and Oklahoma State win.
Rosalie Town eliminated if Oklahoma State wins.
Matt Kagan eliminated if either Alabama or St. Joe’s wins.
Paul Zak eliminated if Alabama wins.
Chris Evans eliminated if either UConn or St. Joe’s wins.
Kristy LaPlante eliminated if either Alabama or Oklahoma State wins.
Adam Williams eliminated if either Alabama or Oklahoma State wins.

Below is a detailed look at what would happen under each of today’s four scenarios. The Top 5 is the leaderboard at the end of the day; the “still alive to win” list shows the number of scenarios (out of the remaining 32) that each contestant would win; and of course, the “eliminated” list shows who no longer has a chance to win the pool.

If UConn, St. Joe’s win

Top 5:
Paul Zak 267
Timothy Benson 260
Tom Greca 260
Rosalie Town 251
Kristin Vasil 250

Still alive to win:
Timothy Benson 13
Tom Greca 11
Rosalie Town 6
Ben Eng 3
Paul Zak 2
Kristy LaPlante 2
Adam Williams 1

Eliminated:
Ginny Zak
Matt Kagan
Chris Evans

If UConn, Okla. St. win

Top 5:
Paul Zak 282
Ginny Zak 262
Tom Greca 260
Matt Kagan 259
Dennis Chow 256

Still alive to win:
Matt Kagan 11
Ginny Zak 10
Paul Zak 5
Ben Eng 3
Tom Greca 2
Timothy Benson 2

Eliminated:
Rosalie Town
Chris Evans
Kristy LaPlante
Adam Williams

If Alabama, St. Joe’s win

Top 5:
Paul Zak 252
Ginny Zak 247
Timothy Benson 245
Tom Greca 245
Steve Hartranft 240

Still alive to win:
Ben Eng 11
Timothy Benson 10
Tom Greca 6
Rosalie Town 6
Ginny Zak 3

Eliminated:
Matt Kagan
Paul Zak
Chris Evans
Kristy LaPlante
Adam Williams

If Alabama, Okla. St. win

Top 5:
Paul Zak 267
Ginny Zak 262
Andrew Long 248
Paul Luch 245
Tom Greca 245

Still alive to win:
Ginny Zak 17
Ben Eng 9
Chris Evans 6

Eliminated:
Timothy Benson
Tom Greca
Rosalie Town
Matt Kagan
Paul Zak
Kristy LaPlante
Adam Williams

Paul Zak has the lead in The Living Room Times’s ninth annual NCAA men’s pool heading into the Elite Eight — but with a Kentucky-Texas championship game on his bracket, he is not the favorite to win it all.

The title would go to his aunt Ginny Zak, who predicts Oklahoma State over Duke in the title game, and who would win in 23.4% of the remaining 128 scenarios — making her statistically the most likely winner among the “Terrific Ten” contestants who still have a chance to win the pool.

Hot on Zak’s heels is Ben Eng, the newly reinstated contestant currently in 14th place, whose Duke-over-Georgia Tech bracket would win the pool in 20.3% of the scenarios. Next in the probabilities column is Timothy Benson (19.5%), then Tom Greca (14.8%), then Rosalie Town (9.4%), then Matt Kagan (8.6%).

Paul Zak, despite being in first place, is only the seventh-most likley to win the pool, with 5.6% of the scenarios going his way. Chris Evans (4.7%), Kristy LaPlante (1.6%) and Adam Williams (0.8%) round out the list of contestants who are still mathematically alive.

Larry Caplin and Danielle and Luke Thomsen where eliminated by Friday night’s games: Duke over Illinois and Georgia Tech over Nevada.

As for the current standings, they go like this: Paul Zak with 252 out of a possible 352 points, then Ginny Zak with 247, then Tom Greca with 245. Next are three contestants who cannot win the pool: Kristin Vasil (235 points), Andrew Long (233), Ryan Dalidowitz (233).

Rounding out the Top 10 are four contestants tied for seventh place with 230 points: Timothy Benson, who is still alive to win, and Paul Lucht, Todd Stigliano and Jeff Santos, who are not.

Okay, I’m officially sleepy. See scenarios below and links at right, and stay tuned for a full update tomorrow. :)

Paul Zak took back the LRT men’s pool lead from his aunt, Ginny Zak, as Georgia Tech defeated Nevada.

Georgia Tech’s win also mathematically eliminated Luke Thomsen from any chance of winning the pool.

The Duke-Illinois game is still in progress. More to come.

Both of tonight’s games — #1 Duke vs. #5 Illinois and #3 Georgia Tech vs. #10 Nevada — are close in the second half. Here is a quick look at the pool ramifications of the games:

If Duke, GA Tech win
1. Paul Zak 252
2. Ginny Zak 247
3. Tom Greca 245
Eliminated: Danielle Thomsen, Larry Caplin, Luke Thomsen

If Duke, Nevada win
1. Ginny Zak 247
2. Paul Zak 242
3. Tom Greca 235
3. Kristin Vasil 235
Eliminated: Adam Williams, Ben Eng, Danielle Thomsen, Larry Caplin, Matt Kagan

If Illinois, GA Tech win
1. Paul Zak 242
2. Larry Caplin 237
2. Ginny Zak 237
Eliminated: Adam Williams, Kristy LaPlante, Luke Thomsen

If Illinois, Nevada win
1. Ginny Zak 237
1. Larry Caplin 237
3. Paul Zak 232
Eliminated: Adam Williams, Ben Eng, Kristy LaPlante, Matt Kagan, Tom Greca

Arizona resident Ginny Zak, who predicted unlikely Elite Eight runs for #4 Kansas and #7 Xavier, took the lead in The Living Room Times’s ninth annual NCAA men’s basketball pool Friday when both teams won and vindicated her predictions.

The top of the pool leaderboard is a family affair. Zak, mother of pool administrator Brendan Loy’s girlfriend Becky Zak, has 237 out of a possible 332 points. That puts her five points ahead of her nephew Paul Zak, who led the pool until the Xavier game ended, and ten points ahead of her brother-in-law Larry Caplin.

In addition to taking the lead, Ginny Zak also became the statistical favorite to win the pool. With nine games and 512 scenarios remaining, Zak would win in 28.7% of the tournament’s possible outcomes.

Timothy Benson, currently tied for 13th place, is the second-most likely to win, with 18.5% of the scenarios going his way. Rosalie Town, presently in 12th place, is next with a 15.8% chance of winning.

Benson is a Newington High School Class of 1999 graduate. Town is USC Class of 2003 alumna.

Ben Eng, a.k.a. “We Todd,” who was just re-qualified for the pool after his true identity was revealed, is the fourth most-likely to win, even though he is presently tied for 21st place. Eng would win in 7.4% of the scenarios.

Meanwhile, Paul Zak, previously the pool leader and statistical favorite, suffered a devastating blow when one of his national finalists, Texas, lost. He is now the sixth-most likely to win, with a 6.8% chance, down from 31.2% at the beginning of the day.

Eight players who were statistically alive at the beginning of the day have been mathematically eliminated: Beth Milewski, Brenden Roche, Dan Port, Jeff Santos, Kristin Vasil, Rick Boeckler, Stacey Tetreault, and Steve Hartranft.

These percentages and scenarios assume that “Gadget” will be disqualified from the pool, which will occur if he/she does not reveal his/her identity via e-mail before the end of tonight’s games.

The disqualification of Ben Eng, also known as “We Todd,” has been lifted, and he is once again a contestant in The Living Room Times’s ninth annual NCAA men’s basketball pools.

Pool administrator Brendan Loy made the decision after Eng’s true identity was revealed this afternoon.

Meanwhile, it appears that the mysterious contestant known as “Gadget” will be disqualified later tonight. Loy has repeatedly e-mailed “Gadget” attempting to find out his or her identity, and has informed “Gadget” that he or she will be disqualified from the pool unless he or she responds satisfactorily before the end of tonight’s games.

Any such action will be final, in order to maintain the integrity of the pool from this point forward.

Pool update to follow.